Erratic rains, raids and response delays slow recovery

Although food security in pastoral areas has improved significantly after the October 2005 to March 2006 drought, livestock raids, erratic 2007 long rains and the absence of livelihood interventions to complement emergency responses will slow the recovery of populations in pastoral and marginal agricultural livelihood zones. A significant food crisis could emerge in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas of Kenya in late 2007 if the October to December short rains are poor.

While excellent 2006/07 short rains have enabled populations in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas to better cope with the mediocre 2007 long rains, decreasing browse availability will cause some pastoral households to experience significant stress before the start of the 2007/08 short rains in October. Marginal agricultural households will also begin to experience similar stresses because, although overall national maize production was normal this year, poor cereal production in the southeast and parts of the coastal lowlands has reduced household food access and income.

In pastoral areas, some grazing resources remain, both because of the good 2006/07 short rains and unseasonable rains in June and July in northwestern and southern pastoral districts. As a result, livestock migration across pastoral zones has been minimal, livestock health and body conditions have held firm, milk availability has improved and livestock prices have increased in most pastoral districts. Child malnutrition rates in pastoral zones have also decreased.

Livelihood interventions to build resilience are critical to help bolster the recovery of pastoral and marginal agricultural populations, but few such interventions have been implemented. In addition, outbreaks of trypanasomasis, a tick-borne cattle disease, in the eastern pastoral districts and Peste des Petits Ruminants in the western pastoral districts are likely to compromise productivity and income gains for pastoralists, unless control and prevention measures are urgently instituted.

Compounding the factors above, conflicts between pastoralists have become more frequent and severe over the past three months, limiting pastoralists’ movements to good grazing areas and markets and deepening their food insecurity. Livestock raids have severely disrupted trade in localized markets in Samburu, Turkana, Laikipia, Baringo, West Pokot and Trans Mara. In the last three months, Turkana pastoralists have lost more than 7,000 head of livestock from clashes in the south and along the borders with Sudan, Ethiopia and Uganda. Rates of child malnutrition are also higher in conflict epicenters than overall district averages. For example, in southern Turkana, global acute malnutrition rates (measured using Mid Upper Arm Circumference) are 70 percent higher than the overall district average. Raids have declined significantly over the past three weeks, however, due in part to extensive Government of Kenya security operations.

Given the high level of vulnerability to food insecurity among people in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, continued recovery hinges on good short rains at the end of 2007. If these rains are poor, Kenya’s pastoral rangelands and marginal agricultural lowlands will face another major food crisis. Contingency planning and preparedness that incorporates the lessons of the 2005/06 crisis should now be undertaken.

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