Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions (August-early September 2007)

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Food secure areas: All bimodal areas and unimodal areas where early crops are being consumed Moderately food insecure: Areas where hunger season is the main constraint and is almost coming to an end Highly food insecure: Areas that have experienced flooding and where the hunger season is still at peak

Source: FEWS NET

• Food insecurity during the May to August hunger season in southern Sudan is decreasing with the early harvest of maize, sorghum and groundnuts in a number of areas, especially in Lakes State (southern parts of the Western Flood Plains) and Western Bahr El Gazal State (north and central parts of the Ironstone Plateau).

• The hunger season may be extended in Unity and Upper Nile states due to the destruction of crops by early flooding that started in July. So far, 20,000 people are reported affected, but the actual number of affected people is likely to be significantly higher. Food and non-food interventions in the flood-affected areas are ongoing. Monitoring flood levels remains a high priority until the end of September, particularly in the Flood Plains and Nile-Sobat River zones, as the level of flooding will determine the performance of all food production systems and food access between October 2007 and April 2008.

• First-season crops are now being harvested in bimodal season areas in Greenbelt and parts of Hills and Mountains zones, and the planting of second-season crops is ongoing at the same time. The incoming harvest will ensure food security until November 2007, when the second-season harvest is expected.

• Tensions between the Didinga in Budi County in the Hills and Mountains Livelihood Zone and Toposa pastoralists of the Pastoral Zone following attacks and cattle raiding by the Toposa in May are now being addressed by a peace reconciliation meeting scheduled to start at the end of August.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Critical factors to monitor from August to November 2007	Cropping seasons in southern Sudan	Southern Sudan Livelihood Zones
Insecurity and livestock related conflicts Status of north-south population returns Impact of November population census on returns Progress of rain, crops and harvest in March/April-July (Greenbelt/Hills & Mountains) and June-September /November cropping (Nile-Sobat, Eastern-Western Flood Plains) and part of Pastoral Zone. Availability of government subsidized sorghum during May-August Flood levels and impact in Nile-Sobat and Flood zones	FULL-SIZE IMAGE April-July and September-December season (Bimodal) Pastoral – Limited single-season areas June-September – single season (Unimodal) June-November – single season (Unimodal) Mixed seasons – Areas with two seasons in highlands and one season in lowlands	FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Progress of seasonal rains

First-season (April-July) crops in bimodal cropping areas of Greenbelt and parts of the Hills and Mountains livelihood zones are now being harvested. Meanwhile, planting for the just-starting second season is ongoing in these same areas. Generally, first-season rains in bimodal areas have been normal to above normal in Greenbelt, but slightly below normal in the Hills and Mountains Zone.

Heavy rainfall in unimodal areas (all other areas of southern Sudan) occurred in early July, causing localized above-normal early flooding in Unity, Upper Nile and Jonglei states in the eastern sector, while slightly below- to near-normal rains fell in the western sector (Western Flood Plains and Ironstone Plateau zones - see Figure 2). However, improvements occurred after early July: better rains fell in the western sector, and rainfall decreased slightly in the eastern sector (Figure 3). Cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 10 this year has been similar to or greater than rainfall in the same period of 2006 (Figure 4).

Previous flood years comparable to 2007 occurred in 1998 and 1996. The 1996 floods were more extensive than in 1998 and this year, which is consistent with the greater amounts of rainfall in 1996 than in 1998 and 2007 (figures 5 and 6). This implies that areas affected by this year’s floods may follow a recovery pattern similar to that of the 1996 post-flooding season. That year, early flooding destroyed crops and forced households to relocate. The lost crops resulted in food shortages between October and December, which were compensated for by increased fishing and milk between January/February and April/May. Most flooding in 1998 occurred later in the season and spared a reasonable amount of crops for harvest.

Figure 2. Rainfall as percent of normal, June 1 to July 10, 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 3. Rainfall as percent of normal, June 1 to August 10, 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 4. Rainfall from June 1-August 10, 2007 compared to the same period in 2006 FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Figure 5. Rainfall from June 1-August 10, 2007 compared to the same period in 1998 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 6. Rainfall from June 1-August 10, 1996 compared to the same period in 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 7. Vegetation conditions as of August 1-10 FULL-SIZE IMAGE FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Data Source: NOAA/USGS; Graphics: FEWS NET		Vegetation Data Source: NASA/SPOT

Figure 8. Current conditions in Southern Sudan

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Western Flood Plains Zone

The June to September cropping season is now in its third month. In areas where rains began earlier than normal (April-May), early maturing maize, sorghum and groundnuts are now being consumed, especially in the southern parts of the zone (Rumbek, Yirol and Awerial counties), supplemented by milk, shea-butter and food purchased through the sale of labor and petty trade. Currently, the prices of the staple foods (maize, groundnuts and sorghum) are stable.

Latest updates from Concern in Yirol and Awerial counties suggest that flooding levels in most places are normal, and that people are consuming early maturing crops. This implies that earlier concerns over abnormal flooding are no longer alarming, but a close watch is still essential. Meanwhile, an inter-tribal peace conference initiative is scheduled between Yirol residents and their Nuer neighbors to address cattle-raiding practices and looting. Cattle-raiding in Yirol, Rumbek and Cuibet counties (Lakes State) and part of Warrap State has persisted over the years, and is often triggered by competition over grazing and water resources or inter-tribal misunderstandings that escalate into cattle raiding. Some of the latest inter-clan tensions occurred in Lakes State’s Rumbek County between June and July, and again in mid-August. Others occurred in Yirol in July, but the situation there has stabilized. Widespread disarmament conducted in Lakes State last year was expected to bring an end to these conflicts, but has not. This implies that future inter-clan conflicts are likely, and could potentially disrupt livelihood activities such as access to grazing and water areas in conflict-prone areas.

Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone

Localized early and above-normal flooding that occurred in parts of Unity has persisted due to continued rains. However, latest informal field updates and satellite-generated rainfall imagery suggest that the situation has not alarmingly worsened since early July, possibly due to the fact that rains have slightly abated in the two states (Figure 3). Flooding forced affected households to relocate with assets such as cattle to higher ground, and damaged immovable property such as houses. Crops were also flooded at a very young stage.

Such early flooding tends to be destructive to crops, causing food shortages between October and December. However, the losses are often compensated for by extra months of fishing and collection of water plants between February and May, depending on flooding and water levels. The losses are also compensated for by increased milk production due to good pasture and water availability in the immediate post-flood season, as well as opportunistic un-seasonal recessional agriculture and ratooning (re-growth of sorghum stalks after harvest) in select areas. These benefits were observed during immediate post-flooding seasons which last occurred in 1996 and in a few places in 1998.

Latest estimates by the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), UN and NGO assessment of the number of people affected by floods in Unity and Upper Nile states so far suggest that up to 20,000 people are affected. However, GoSS and humanitarian agencies believe that actual numbers of those affected may be significantly higher than current estimates. Meanwhile, food and non-food interventions are ongoing in affected areas. As interventions continue, it is important for food security agencies in flooded areas to focus on facilitating the immediate post-flooding opportunities that are likely to emerge. For example, improving access to fishing equipment will enable increased fishing opportunities, and improving the means of accessing the equipment in a timely and inexpensive way should be put in place now. Where recessional agriculture is possible, it is important to ascertain whether access to sorghum seeds is sufficient.

Latest updates from SC-UK in Leer County indicate that crop performance, including tobacco, was good until heavy rains and floods in mid-July destroyed crops while they were still at a young stage. Households are now busy building dykes to keep floodwaters away from farms and homesteads and creating additional farms in areas that have not been affected by floods. Currently, most households are relying on fish, milk and grain from local markets that are well supplied by traders from northern Sudan. Availability and access to food staples such as grain and other commodities is reported to have significantly improved due to better road access connecting to Bentiu and onwards to Khartoum. Current sources of cash used to purchase grain include employment in oilfields, sale of livestock and fish, as well as petty trade. Despite the destruction of crops by floods, an early maize harvest is expected towards the end of August in farms not affected by the flooding.

Eastern Flood Plains

As in the Nile-Sobat Zone, flooding occurred in Jonglei State’s Ayod, Akobo, Pulchol, Waat and Walgak counties, and Upper Nile State’s Renk County. Floods in Renk are compounded by the obstruction of water channels by a road and swelling water levels due to heavy rains in Ethiopia. Here, floods have displaced people and destroyed houses. Flooding has also occurred in Longuchok County in Upper Nile State, forcing more than 1,600 people to relocate to higher grounds. The impact of the floods on crop performance and other food sources is expected to be similar to that of the Nile-Sobat River Zone; the most critical impact is a potential extension of the hunger season. Meanwhile, traditional hostilities typical to eastern parts of Jonglei State have flared up around mid-August, forcing humanitarian agencies to vacate the area. Recurrent inter-clan hostilities have limited humanitarian access and presence since the early 1990s.

Hills-Mountains and Pastoral zones

Conflict and cattle-raiding tensions that have persisted between the Didinga and Toposa communities (Budi and Kapoeta counties respectively) are now being addressed by a series of peace meetings scheduled to start at the end of August. These tensions were caused by armed attacks and inter-tribal cattle raiding in May conducted by the Toposa of the Pastoral Zone on Didinga agro-pastoralists, which left more than 50 people dead and 800 cattle looted. Following this, the Didinga community demanded immediate disarmament of Toposa pastoralists, investigation of the killings, compensation for the relatives of victims, return of administration of previously Didinga-controlled areas and withdrawal of animals belonging to Toposa pastoralists from Didinga territory. Implications of these demands include potential denial of access to grazing land for the Toposa, re-initiation of long historical hostilities and escalated conflict.

The August peace meeting is hoped to diffuse current tensions between the two groups and create a forum conducive to addressing their hostilities. The peace agreement is planned to take place in phases. Numerous peace agreements between the two communities have been made and broken in the past, leaving most hostilities unresolved. Given this history, there is the need for GoSS and relevant peace-building agents to develop creative ways that hold all communities accountable for upholding and respecting peace and rule of law.

Meanwhile, disarmament activities have started in this zone, especially in Torit County. This is as a result of ongoing peace negotiations between the northern Ugandan-based Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and the Ugandan Government, which has confined and restricted movement of LRA to specific areas, significantly reducing attacks in the southern LRA-attack prone areas. However, this disarmament is raising concerns among different community groups over potentially increased vulnerability to attacks and cattle raiding by armed pastoralist neighbors residing in Kenya and Uganda. Given the proximity of the Hills and Mountains and Pastoral zones to Uganda and Kenya respectively, there is a need for intergovernmental consultations and coordination in addressing security and peace as well as conducting simultaneous activities to minimize negative impacts on cross-border communities.

Throughout the Pastoral Livelihood Zone, pasture conditions are currently above average due to good rains starting in April this year, implying that the food security of livestock-dependent households is likely to be good between August and December.

Ironstone Plateau Zone

The June to September cropping season started early in many parts of this zone, triggering slightly earlier