FEWS NET Monthly Report for Tanzania, United Republic of covering the period Dec 2006 to Jan 2007.

TANZANIA Food Security Update

January 2007

Good rains continue to fall throughout Tanzania, and prospects for the upcoming harvests in both unimodal and bimodal areas are good.  Food stocks are being released on the market as a result of the good harvest prospects, causing food prices to decline unseasonably in many markets and improving food access for market-dependent households.  However, maize prices have remained high and continued to increase in markets in the Lake Victoria zone and the southern coast, restricting food access to market-dependant households in these areas.  The heavy rains have improved pasture conditions, which has reduced pastoralist movement in search of pasture, increased the availability of milk and improved the overall food security of pastoralist households.  The potential spread of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) from Kenya poses a risk to pastoralist food security, however.  Heavy rains in central parts of Tanzania continue to impede transportation and affect movement of people and food commodities.

Seasonal calendar

Timeline of critical events

Rainfall regimes

Food availability and access

Food availability is increasing throughout Tanzania as a result of the good prospects for crop production in both the vuli and msimu seasons.  Households are releasing stocks on the market to get cash to cover farm operation costs, especially for weeding and fertilizer application.  Downward price trends in many markets have led traders to release their crop stocks on the market, anticipating further price decreases as the season progresses.

In many markets, prices decreased from November to December, an abnormality during this period when food is usually scarce before the harvests begin (see Figure 1).  Prices are also lower than they were last year during the same period and lower than the five-year average.  However, high maize prices above the five-year average were recorded in December in the Lake Victoria zone (Bukoba, Mwanza and Musoma) and in the southern coast (Lindi and Mtwara).  In the lake zone, the high prices are likely to have been caused by the deficit in production of their staple food crops (bananas, cassava and sweet potatoes) during the 2005/06 season and high transport costs from areas with a maize surplus.  In Mtwara and Lindi, the high and increasing prices are likely to have been caused by the exhaustion of household stocks, due to a lack of storage facilities that led farmers to dispose of their produce immediately after harvesting, and also by improved purchasing power following the cashew season.  The high prices are affecting the poor market-dependant households in these areas.

Figure 1.  Comparison of December 2006 maize prices with the five-year December average, December 2005 and November 2006 prices

Source: Ministry of Industries, Marketing and Trade

Maize prices in Dar es Salaam are currently lower than prices in other East African markets (see Figure 2).  Since the export ban of food crops has just been lifted in Tanzania in January, the significant difference in prices between these cities is likely to cause exportation of maize from Tanzania, thus increasing the prices of maize in Tanzania and ending the decreasing price trend.

Figure 2.  Maize prices of selected markets in East Africa, January 2007

Source: Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network

Seasonal weather progress and outlook

Soil moisture conditions continued to improve in January, and seasonal rainfall is normal to above-normal in both bimodal and unimodal areas, exceeding 200 percent of normal in some locations from October 1, 2006 to February 2, 2007 (Figure 3).  The rainfall decreased at the end of January, which is a seasonal trend before a dry spell that normally occurs in February.  If the February dry spell extends beyond two weeks, it can affect maize and late-planted crops in unimodal areas and lead to replanting.  The dry spell also normally causes outbreaks of pests such as stalk borers and armyworms, but alarming levels of these pests have not yet occurred.

Figure 3.  Rainfall estimate, October 1, 2006 to February 2, 2007

Total precipitation, mm	Percent of normal precipitation
FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE
FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: NOAA

The heavy rains have also caused localized problems.  Floods resulting from above-normal rainfall in some parts of the country are likely to destroy irrigation intakes and canals, which will affect irrigated crop production in Iringa and Mwanza.  The heavy rains have also destroyed road and railway infrastructure, causing increased transportation costs and delays in the movement of people and goods, including grains, especially in Singida and Dodoma regions.  Additionally, temporary ponds resulting from the heavy rains are likely to increase breeding grounds for mosquitoes that could carry malaria and other diseases (see below on RVF).

Crop development and agricultural activities

The above-normal seasonal rainfall is benefiting crop growth and development throughout the country, and prospects for agricultural production this season are generally favorable, including maize and rice production.  Overall, self-sufficiency in cereal production is likely to increase beyond the 85 percent self-sufficiency achieved during the 2005/06 season.

In unimodal areas, the adequate soil moisture has increased prospects for a good harvest season, which has increased agricultural investment by farmers and led to increased agricultural labor opportunities.  If the msimu rains continue performing well, a good harvest will have a significant positive impact on food security in the central zone (Singida, Dodoma and Shinyanga regions), where chronic food shortages have persisted for the last five years due to drought conditions.

The rains in bimodal areas have enhanced vuli crop production, which contributes up to 30 percent of total crop production in Tanzania.  Most crops in bimodal areas (particularly maize and beans) were at the mature stage of development, and the reduced rainfall in January and the approaching normal dry spell will allow drying and harvesting of the vuli crops.  A good vuli performance will increase food availability and alleviate chronic food shortages in Monduli and Ngorongoro districts (Arusha region) and Same district (Kilimanjaro region).

Pasture conditions and water levels in dams in northeastern areas have improved significantly.  The heavy rains have enabled adequate forage to grow for pastoral herds, and areas that had experienced a forage deficit in 2006 have recovered.  Adequate forage is expected throughout the country for the rest of the season, and the forage conditions have already led to improved animal conditions and milk production.  Since pastoralists do not have to move far looking for pasture, milk production has increased, which has improved food availability for pastoral households.  Improvements in animal conditions have increased animal value, and prices at Pugu market ? the main cattle market ?have started increasing.

Despite this marked improvement in pastoralist food security, there is a threat that the deadly Rift Valley Fever (RVF) may spread from Kenya to Tanzania.  No cases of RVF have been reported in the country so far, but the disease seems to be quickly spreading in Kenya towards the border with Tanzania at Tanga.  The most likely areas through which the disease may enter Tanzania are Tanga, Arusha and Musoma, aided by floodwater harboring mosquitoes that carry the viral disease.  If the disease enters Tanzania, livestock bans could be imposed and meat availability could decrease as livestock herds decrease.  Pastoralist livelihoods are just starting to recover from the massive deaths of animals from the severe drought in 2005/06, and an outbreak of RVF would further weaken their livelihood base.  The government is advised to undertake intensive surveillance in areas bordering Kenya, train technical extension staff and equip the veterinary investigation centers in the areas, conduct awareness-raising for farmers to vaccinate their animals and impose a strict quarantine on animals from Kenya.  Also, people should be advised to sleep under mosquito nets and to not eat meat that has not been inspected and certified by a veterinary officer.

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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