Executive Summary

Figure 1. Food security conditions September 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

• The majority of households in northern and central Angola are generally food secure, although 2,000 households are highly food insecure in Alto Cauele and there is an unspecified number of moderately food insecure households in Ambuila, Bungo, Negage, Puri, Sanza Pombo and Songo (Uige) due to the impact of cassava mosaic virus (CMV) on cassava production. In southern Angola, 15,000 households are food insecure following poor harvest caused by rainfall deficits. An urgent assessment of the impact of cassava virus attack on cassava production in northern Angola is currently needed.
• The most likely scenario suggests that most Angolans will remain food secure through March 2008, due to last season’s favorable harvest and the potential for nacas and first season harvests between October 2007 and February 2008 in northern and central Angola. However, food security is likely to deteriorate in parts of northern and central Angola due to the impact of CMV on cassava production, the continual effects of last season’s intense rains and floods and the increase in food prices.
• The most likely scenario also anticipates a 50 percent increase in the number of food insecure households in southern Angola and the possibility that between November 2007 and March 2008, some of the households in Curoca district in Cunene province and Gambos district in Huila province will become highly food insecure. The major factors behind the likely deterioration in food security are the limitations on nacas cropping activities and the unimodal nature of the area’s agriculture.
• The worst case food security scenario is driven by two factors: the failure of crop protection programs to mitigate the damage caused by CMV, and the poor quality of the coming rainfall season in some provinces. If efforts to contain the spread of CMV in Uige province are unsuccessful, the migration of households from Alta Cauele, the most affected district, to Massango in Malange province, may intensify, with negative food security consequences for migrating and local households. The SADC Drought Monitoring Center rainfall forecast suggests an increased chance of normal to below-normal rainfalls for the majority of provinces, excluding Benguela, Namibe, Huila and Cunene, between October and December 2007, and in the northern provinces between January and March 2008. This forecast will not have a strong negative impact on the food security in northern provinces, where cassava, a drought-resistant crop, is the main staple food. However, deficit rainfall would further aggravate the food security of households in those districts affected by CMV, especially in Alto Cauale, where households do not produce significant amounts of alternative staple food crops.

Current food security situation

The majority of the population in northern and central Angola is generally food secure, following good harvests of cereals, tubers and beans from the last rainy season’s cropping. However, some populations in localized areas are moderately food insecure and, in Alto Cauele, highly food insecure. About 15,000 households among crop-faming, female-headed, Vatua and Khoisan households in Cunene, southern Huila, south-eastern Namibe and southern Cuando Cubango are moderately food insecure due to poor harvests of cereals. About 2,000 households in Alto Cauele in Uige are also moderately to highly food insecure due to the impact of CMV on cassava production. There are reports of increased number of households traveling to Massango districts of Malange to buy food for their own consumption and for trading in Alto Cauale.

Figure 2. Most likely food security scenario October to December 2007 (Q4, 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Figure 3. Most likely food security scenario January to March 2008 (Q1, 2008) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Most-likely food security scenario

The most-likely food security scenario anticipates stable food security for households in central and northern Angola, outside southern Uige province, where households are likely to remain moderately to highly food insecure. In much of southern Angola, households are expected to remain moderately to highly food insecure between October 2007 and March 2008. Crop farming households, female headed households and Khoisan and Vatua people will be the most affected populations in southern Angola. In addition to good rains that have provided adequate harvests last season, households and local markets in northern and central Angola will be supplied with harvests from nacas between September 2007 and February 2008, and from first phase harvests in February 2008.

Households will likely continue to face moderate food insecurity in northern and central Angola, and in some areas, levels of food insecurity are likely to deteriorate to high or extreme levels. The degree of food insecurity is influenced by the impact of CMV on cassava production in Uige, Malange, Kuanza Norte and Bengo, and by the intense rains and floods last season in Benguela and Moxico. While the 17 percent drop in local cassava production did not mean much in terms of national cassava balance given the usual surplus for this crop, about 3,000 or more households could become highly to extremely food insecure by December 2007 in districts where the virus infection has been severe, such as Alto Cauele. The residual effects of last season’s intense rains and floods may drastically affect the livelihoods of some 1,500 households who will not recover fully for another one to two seasons.

Last season’s dry spell reduced agricultural production in the southern provinces, which now have very limited food reserves. In the next six months, the food security situation of crop farming households, female-headed households, Khoisan and Vatua will also be aggravated because of the reduced possibilities for early nacas harvests and/or an early rainy season harvests. More than 30,000 households in those groups are likely to be moderately to highly food insecure by the end of December 2007 due to poor harvests last season, lack of income earning opportunities and a possible increase in the price of cereals. The poor quality of roads in remote districts of southern Angola, particularly in Curoca and Gambos, will exacerbate the level of food insecurity during the rainy season (between January and March 2008) by limiting the flow of locally produced and imported food products. An assessment during early November may provide details about the location, identification and number of food insecure households.

Figure 4. Worst-case food security scenario October to December 2007 (Q4, 2007)   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Figure 5. Worst-case food security scenario January to March 2008 (Q1, 2008) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Worst case food security scenario

Two factors influence the likelihood of a worst-case scenario emerging. First, in the northern districts, plant protection programs do not contain the spread of CMV. Second, the rainy season, which is expected to be below normal to normal, according to the SADC Drought Monitoring Center, tends to below normal.

The spread of CMV in Alto Cauele district could trigger increased migration of those seeking food from Massango district by December 2007. This could in turn lead to higher levels of food insecurity in Massango by March 2008, as the increased demand from Alto Cauele raises food prices and reduces food availability in Massango.

The forecast by SADC Drought Monitoring Centre indicates that there is an increased chance of normal to below-normal rainfalls throughout the North. If rains tend to below normal, the level of food insecurity will intensify in areas where households are already affected by the reduction in cassava production.

Poor October-December rains in central Angola will eliminate the potential for a good harvest in February and complicate household food security. Poor rains are often manifest in the form of an extended pequeno cacimbo or small dry spell, which has a very negative effect on production in the central region.