Most households remain food secure at the end of this year’s January to April dry season. However, food insecurity is expected to increase in May as food stocks from last year’s harvests dwindle and off-farm food sources such as wild plants and fruits are exhausted, typical of the May to August hunger season.

The hunger season may be particularly severe in the northern parts of the Western Flood Plains (mainly Northern Bahr El Gazal State) and the Eastern Flood Plains (Nyirol, Diror, Pulchol and Wuror counties in Jonglei State) livelihood zones, where structural food deficits are normally acute. Significant numbers of people continue to return to the already densely populated Northern Bahr El Gazal, and a poor harvest due to floods and insecurity last year and cattle rustling this year will negatively affect food access in parts of Jonglei State.

There are no updates on whether subsidized sorghum will be available during this year’s hunger season. The 2006 hunger season was significantly mitigated by the availability of affordable government-subsidized sorghum in most areas. In the absence of subsidized sorghum, households typically purchase sorghum on the market, while at the same time reduce the number of meals consumed.

In the Hills and Mountains livelihood zone, the first-season rains were delayed by up to 30 days. This delay may impact the production of first-season crops, which are harvested from July to September.  

Critical events timeline

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Food access summary

In the Western Flood Plains Livelihood Zone, households are consuming their final stocks of sorghum, supplemented by groundnuts, sesame and fish. Wild food stocks have been exhausted. In the Eastern Flood Plains Zone, wild food stocks have also been exhausted, but fish and milk continue being consumed. Own-produced sorghum stocks have also dwindled. In the Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone, the availability of fish and water-based wild foods is still at its peak in above-normal quantities, and consumption is supplemented by milk and sorghum carried over from last year’s harvest. In the Hills and Mountains and Greenbelt zones, sorghum, maize, sweet potatoes, cowpeas and groundnuts from the second-season harvest in January are still being consumed, but cassava consumption now dominates the food basket as is typical of this season. Its consumption will continue until August, when the first-season crop harvest reaches its peak. Sorghum, wild roots and game are the main food sources being consumed in the Ironstone Plateau, while milk, meat and ghee supplemented by small amounts of sorghum dominate the food basket in the Pastoral/Arid Zone.

Onset of the March to July rains in bimodal cropping areas; current vegetation and pasture conditions

The start of the first-season rains from March/April to July in bimodal cropping areas, mainly located in the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountains zones, has been mixed (Figure 1). The rains have been timely in most of the Greenbelt Zone, but were delayed by 20 to 30 days in other areas, especially in the Hills and Mountains Zone (Figure 2). Current maize crop conditions are very good (Figure 3), but a delayed start of season in the Hills and Mountains Zone and northwestern parts of the Greenbelt Zone is a concern. The 20 to 30 day delay in the start of season has negative implications on crop growth, especially if the typical June to July dry spell occurs before crops are fully established. This negative impact is primarily relevant in the Hills and Mountains Zone, where rainfall fluctuations tend to affect crops. In the Greenbelt Zone, rainfall amounts are high, and fluctuations have less of an impact on affect crop production. Crops grown during this season are harvested between July and September.

Figure 1: Status of start of season, as of April 11-20, 2007				Figure 2: Start of season anomaly, as of April 11-20, 2007
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Figure 3: Crop (Maize) conditions as of 11- 20, April 2007			Figure 4: Vegetation anomaly as of 1-10, April 2007		Figure 5: Rainfall estimate, April 10 to 16, 2007
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Season/crop data source: NOAA and USGS. Vegetation data source: NASA. Graphics: FEWS NET

Current vegetation conditions are slightly below normal in the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountains zones (Figure 4), and also when compared to same time last month. However, these conditions are expected to improve following significant amounts of rainfall in April, particularly from April 10 to 16 (Figure 5). Vegetation and pasture conditions are favorable in most areas, except for pockets in the southeast and central-north, but conditions in these areas are expected to improve in May/June when the main rains start in the unimodal areas.

The March to May rains have been near normal to below normal in most of southern Sudan. This is particularly relevant in the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountains livelihood zones, where these rains constitute the first season. This level of rainfall has varied from the forecasts released by the Nineteenth Climate Outlook Forum in early March, which indicated that rains would be near normal to above normal. This change in the forecast has been anticipated, as the forecast was based on the gradual cooling of sea surface temperatures whose signals and reliability were weak as of early March. The current conditions are not conclusive of a failed season, though, as rainfall amounts could significantly increase between now and the end of May. For the rest of southern Sudan, the main rain season starts in June and ends around September/October.

Food security updates by livelihood zone

Figure 6: Updates from various zones and states of southern Sudan

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Source: FEWS NET

Western Flood Plains Zone

In the north of this zone, household stocks of sorghum, sesame and groundnuts harvested in October 2006 are now rapidly dwindling, especially for poor crop-producing households. These food sources are likely to be completely exhausted in May, when the normal May-August hunger season begins. Meanwhile, labor and petty trade continue to be major current sources of cash among poor households in the northern parts. The labor activities are primarily comprised of construction, brick-making, the sale of forest products and clearing of agricultural land, grass and wood, while petty trade mostly involves selling local beer and cooked food.

In the southern part of this zone, food security remains stable, as households continue to consume sorghum and groundnuts harvested in December. These are being supplemented by off-farm dry-season food sources, such as fish and milk, whose production has remained above normal during this year’s dry season. The latest field updates from OXFAM suggest a likely reasonable performance of shear butter crop, which is a critical food source during the May to August hunger season in the southern parts of the zone. Additional updates also suggest that the cost of labor has doubled compared to the same time last year, due to increased construction activities and increased cash availability following the implementation of monthly government salaries starting last year. Current labor payments are US$ 8.80. It is unlikely that the increased labor costs will result in increased food prices, as the demand for labor is mainly for domestic and construction work. However, concerns are emerging over limited availability of a new currency introduced in January of this year. The new currency (the pound) is replacing the dinar, and is reported as not easily available. Despite the reduced availability of the new currency, the prices of staple foods such as sorghum, groundnuts and maize have remained normal. Livestock prices remain abnormally high, due to a combination of increased demand for cattle by cross-border traders and increased demand for herd restocking. The typical dry-season cattle-based raiding and conflict often triggered by competition over grazing and pasture has decreased, attributed to the successful disarmament of the civilian population, inter-clan reconciliatory meetings and agreements and improved governance.

The meningitis infections that have spread in the last several months are no longer alarming, as they are reportedly decreasing following continued vaccinations and treatment in all affected zones and states.

Eastern Flood Plains Zone

Pasture and water conditions and milk access remain good at the end of the January to April dry season, as a result of above-normal rainfall in August and September of 2006. Meanwhile, access to off-farm food sources such as fish and wild foods have now declined, signaling the onset of the hunger season that begins in full in May.

Tensions persist over increased attacks and cattle raiding from the Murle of Pibor County, located in the Pastoral Zone. The attacks have hampered dry-season movements and humanitarian activities in the eastern parts of the Eastern Flood Plains Zone. Latest updates indicate that the Murle have extended their raids across the border into Ethiopia, where they attacked Anyuak and Nuer tribes. The latest attacks were on the Anyuak on April 11 in Jor Woreda (district) of the Gambella in Ethiopia, leaving 26 people dead and 5,000 displaced, 200 houses burnt and large herds of Anyuak cattle raided. Though the situation has returned to normal following security interventions, the attacks have disrupted key livelihood activities, such as the movement of people and cattle to key grazing areas.

Persistent Murle cattle raiding remains a great threat to stability and food security in this zone. These attacks and insecurity are unlikely to cease unless an extensive disarmament of Murle pastoralists is implemented.

Meanwhile, a multi-sectoral inter-agency assessment conducted in Pochalla, Akobo, Nyirol and Wuror counties in March indicates that an estimated 10,000 people have arrived from Ethiopia in these counties since December 2006. This is not unusual, given that similar numbers of returnees have arrived from Ethiopia in the past, and their integration has been manageable. However, food and non-food assistance is essential to enable them to resettle in the shortest time possible, so as to enable them take advantage of the June-September cropping season.

Apart from the May to August hunger season, the most significant phenomenon in this zone is the relationship between the Lou and Jikany sub-tribes and the ongoing negotiations between the two over relocation of some Lou households from areas originally owned by the Jikany. These negotiations are critically important, as they determine the dynamics of peace and dry-season grazing, fishing and trade in the eastern parts of this zone. Historically, the two sub-tribes have had years of conflict, which have resulted in the Jikany being displaced from their areas and replaced by the Lou. Current negotiations are geared towards facilitating the return of displaced Jikany to their original homes. This implies that the Lou occupying original Jikany areas will need to relocate, which could be another potential source of conflict.

Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone

As in March, food security conditions remain stable in most parts of this zone. Households continue to rely on last year’s harvest and fish and wild plants, whose availability is currently at peak. Increased access to these food sources is likely to sufficiently compensate for any crop shortfalls that may have occurred in the zone. Also, sorghum is available in main markets, as it continues to be brought by traders from northern Sudan. This pattern started after the signing of peace accords in January 2005 and became more established last year. Currently, it is difficult to determine what the availability of sorghum will be during the lean May to August season because of rapidly changing trade dynamics and road infrastructure, triggered by oil mining in this zone.