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Food insecurity is likely to deteriorate beyond the traditional hunger season (April to May) due to late and potentially poor Season B production and high staple food prices. Bugesera, Crete of the Nile, Lake Kivu Shores, Southern Plateau and Eastern Agropastoral food economy zones will be the most food insecure areas of the country.

Figure 1. Food security risk (May 2007)   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET, WFP, province and district officials, National Institute of Statistics for map layout

In most parts of the country, poor households have all but depleted their own food stocks and are facing worsening food insecurity, as is typical of the hunger season. Figure 1 illustrates the areas most at risk of food insecurity as of May 2007.

However, food insecurity in some areas of the country is likely to worsen if the 2007 Season B production is poor, in which case the hunger season would extend until November 2007.

Poor Season B production is a possibility for three reasons. First, late rains during the 2007A season (September 2006 to January 2007) resulted in delayed harvests, which inhibited planting for the 2007B season (February to July 2007). Second, once the fields were ready to be planted, a dry spell further delayed planting and caused wilting of young crops. Third, while rains picked up in mid-April, they will need to continue until mid-June for crops to mature. However, normal dry conditions are forecast for June.

A rapid food crop situation assessment conducted from May 14 to 18 by MINAGRI and FEWS NET in Eastern and Southern provinces, the most drought-prone areas, observed that season B food production will decrease on average by about 5 to 10 percent compared to season 2006B, but that localized decreases could be between 30 and 80 percent. More detailed assessment results will soon be available from the MINAGRI-led harvest assessment mission to be conducted from June 11 to 25, 2007.

In addition, in parts of Musanze, Burera, Gicumbi and Rulindo districts of the Northern Province, heavy rains are damaging crops, especially beans and Irish potato, and production is expected to decrease. If heavy rains persist, these areas could become highly food insecure in the second half of 2007.

Poor households who tend to purchase the majority of their food and smallholders who have depleted their reserves turn to the markets for their food during the lean period (April to May). However, while staple food prices decreased in May, they remain higher than the prices at the same time last year. Therefore poor households will have reduced access to food during the lean season and beyond if the 2007B season is poor. The result will be higher levels of food insecurity through the remainder of 2007.

Current food security situation

Localized food insecurity is increasing in parts of the Southern and Western provinces and Bugesera District of Eastern Province. While the 2007A season production was good, it was delayed due to a late start of the season. Household food stocks from this harvest have begun to run out and the hunger season has begun. Poor households have nearly depleted their food stocks. In Bugesera, many households are facing higher-than-normal levels of food insecurity as a result of poor 2007A bean production. In the Congo-Nile Ridge, the Lake Kivu Shores and the Southern Plateau food economy zones, high population densities and poor soil fertility result in low agricultural production per household and make the region chronically food insecure. Pockets of food insecurity are also found in Rusizi, Rubavu and Nyabihu districts where heavy rains and flooding in late January and early February caused crop losses and property damage. However, food assistance programs, including food-for-work activities conducted by WFP and district authorities, have mitigated the effects of the hunger period, and no population migration has been observed so far.

Although Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) in Nyagatare and Gatsibo districts and cholera in Nyagatare have been controlled and are not generally affecting livelihoods, a new FMD outbreak has erupted in Karangazi Sector in Nyagatare District and is impacting pastoralist livelihoods in this sector. Effective measures by MINAGRI and relevant partners should be put in place to eliminate FMD, which has plagued the region since 2005.

Critical events timeline

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Figure 2. Rainfall February – May, 2007 as percentage of long-term average    FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Rwanda Meteorological Services

2007 Season B harvests threatened

Late rains during the previous agricultural season, the 2007A season (September 2006 to January 2007), resulted in delayed harvests that inhibited planting for the second season, the 2007B season (February to July 2007), in some parts of the country. Once the fields were ready to be planted, a dry spell further delayed planting in some cases and caused wilting of young crops where planting had already occurred. While the increase in rains in mid-April is a positive development, these rains will need to continue until June for crops to mature.

Food production from season A and B represent about 40 to 45 percent of total annual food production each. Sorghum is the main cereal crop grown in the second season and contributes on average 17 percent of the total energy from food crops to meet human needs (in terms of kilocalories) and 20 percent of the proteins for the second semester of the year (June to December). Beans are another important second-season crop. Beans contribute 9 percent of the energy requirements and 30 percent of the protein to meet human needs for the same period (percentages calculated from crop production data for seasons 2000B to 2004B, Rwanda Development Indicators 2004, Statistics Department, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning).

While rains in February were near average, they were below the long-term average in March, April and May. In March, rains were 34 percent of the long-term average, and were only 23 percent of the long-term average in the first dekad (10 day period) of April. Rains were 80 percent of the long-term average in April, and 75 percent in May (See Figure 2).

The dry spell prevented many farmers from planting, and for those who had already done so, crops suffered from water stress, especially in the Southern and Eastern provinces. The start of rains in the second dekad of April allowed some farmers to plant beans and maize, but rains will need to continue through June to allow crops to mature. If rains do not perform favorably until mid-June, low production and crop failure are possible.

Food security outlook

The season 2007B harvest is likely to be lower than the same harvest last year. A rapid food crop situation assessment conducted by MINAGRI and FEWS NET in the Southern and Eastern provinces from May 14 to 18, 2007 observed that food production will decrease by about 5 to 10 percent compared to season 2006B production. This finding will be confirmed by the MINAGRI-led harvest assessment mission planned for June 11 to 25, 2007. If production decreases, food availability and household income from food sales would decline. About 34 percent of the food production in Rwanda is sold by farmers (Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation in Rwanda, MINAGRI 2004), and therefore represents a major source of rural income.

As a result of lower production, food insecurity would continue to increase during the second half of the year until December 2007 when food security should improve following the first-season 2008A harvest, presuming this harvest is normal. While the severity of the October to November hunger period will be alleviated by season C production and related income earning opportunities, not all farmers will benefit, as many do not have access to the marshlands needed for season C production. Food insecurity is expected to be worst for poor households in Bugesera, Crete of the Nile, Lake Kivu Shores, Southern Plateau and Eastern Curve food economy zones, which, according to CFSVA 2006, have the highest percentage of food insecure households in the country (between 31 and 40 percent of their populations).

The joint MINAGRI/FEWS NET assessment mission established that rains need to continue until mid-June for sorghum to reach maturity. Unfortunately the probability that rains will extend into June is low. The Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) forecasts that June rainfall will be similar to the long-term average, which is normally dry. If rains do not continue until mid-June, sorghum, the main cereal of the season, will not reach physiological maturity, and the food security situation would likely deteriorate, especially in the Southern and Eastern provinces and the eastern part of the Northern Province, as they normally produce about 70 percent of the national sorghum crop. However, even if rains continue until mid-June, some sectors of these provinces will remain highly food insecure, such as Ngoma and Nyagisozi of Nyaruguru District due to depleted soils that are unsuitable for agriculture, and parts of Mayange, Gashora and Ruhuha sectors in Bugesera District and Karangazi, Rwempasha, Rwimiyaga and Nyagatare sectors in Nyagatare District, where rains were late and have been erratic.

The Crete of the Nile and the Lake Kivu Shores food economy zones, which have the highest percentage of agriculturalists among their population (approximately 50 percent), are the poorest of the food-insecure livelihood zones, and depend almost exclusively on agriculture for their livelihood. But people in these livelihood zones have limited access to land, a lack of economic opportunities and little to no alternative sources of income. Moreover, high population densities and poor soil fertility result in low agricultural production per household. Thus households in these zones remain moderately food insecure throughout the year.

Efforts to mitigate the increased food insecurity projected to occur in the second half of 2007 need to be pursued, especially efforts to mitigate the effects of reduced food production. Scaling up existing food-for-work programs to improve community infrastructure and cash-for-work and income-generating activities to diversify livelihood strategies should be prioritized. These activities would increase food access and income at the household level.

Specific groups that are clearly food insecure and face malnutrition, especially child-headed households, the handicapped, chronically ill, elderly and malnourished people, poor pregnant women and mothers with children under five, may require free food distribution.

Disease outbreaks affect local food security

Disease outbreaks are contributing to localized food insecurity. While the FMD outbreak in Nyagatare and Gatsibo districts and the cholera outbreak early this year in Nyagatare have been controlled and are not generally affecting livelihoods, FMD has emerged again in Karangazi Sector in Nyagatare District. The disease poses a significant threat to household income and livelihoods in this pastoral region. To contain the highly contagious disease, a quarantine has been imposed and animal and animal product sales banned. This will restrict household income and food access, because the sale of livestock and livestock products is an important source of cash to purchase grains and other essentials. The failure of the season 2007B crop has compounded the impact of FMD on food security in this area.

Figure 3. Key food prices index on 4 markets in Kigali City, March 2005 – May 2007 (March 2005 = 100) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: RATES/FEWS NET

Figure 4. Trade across the Gatuna border (March & April 2007) in MT   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: RATES/FEWS NET

Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease presents a serious threat to the sustainability of banana production in Rwanda. Bananas are an important crop and a key food and income source in Rwanda. They also play an important role in cultural ceremonies, and the crop protects soils from erosion on the country’s hilly terrain. Outbreaks of BXW were reported in the northwestern districts along Lake Kivu in 2005. Despite management efforts, the disease has spread. After establishing itself in Rubavu District, the disease has spread to the neighboring Rutsiro and Karongi districts. There is a very high possibility that the disease will spread to Nyamasheke further down Lake Kivu, as well as to Nyabihu and Ngororero districts. In eastern Rwanda, the districts neighboring Tanzania are at risk of BXW spreading from the Kagera Region where the disease is already present. The frontier districts of Kirehe and Kayonza, and further in-country districts of Rwamagana and Ngoma are close to Ngara and Biharamuro districts of Kagera region, where BXW has been present and spreading for the past 2 years. Recently a significant numbers of refugees have returned to Rwanda from camps in Kagera region. These refugees could potentially bring the disease into interior regions of Rwanda. The northern districts of Nyagatare, Gicumbi, Burera and Musanze also face a significant risk of exposure to BXW from neighboring Kabale district of Uganda where the disease is present. Sensitization and control efforts need to be intensified.

Food markets, prices and trade

In May, prices for most food commodities remained high. The elementary net food price index calculated for sorghum, maize, maize flour, rice, beans, cassava flour, sweet and Irish potato and banana in 4 markets of Kigali City decreased by 3 percent from April to May 07 (see Figure 3), and prices decreased for all commodities. Compared to the same period last year, prices in Kigali markets are on average 10 percent higher, including substantial increases for Irish potato (38 percent), imported rice (21 percent) and cassava flour (19 percent).

The increase in prices of cassava and Irish potato reflect reduced production levels. The high prices for Irish potato are due to low domestic production, resulting from lack of quality seed. Irish potato is the main income source in the northwestern part of the country and in the Congo-Nile Ridge food economy zone. A quality seed production scheme formerly operating in the area should rapidly be rehabilitated. Cassava production has been strained by limited availability of cassava planting materials due to Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD), and the crop used to be an important source of food and income in the mid and low altitudes zones of the country. Despite efforts to introduce tolerant varieties, the quantity of planting materials is not yet sufficient to sustain production.

Despite higher prices, producers are earning less income overall because of lower production in recent seasons. Price increases benefit middlemen more than producers, while consumers are spending more on food.

The increase in the prices of staple foods restricts household food access, especially for poor households with limited access to land who depend on casual labor for income and market purchase for food. For example, poor agro-laborers derive 60 percent of their income from labor and purchase the majority of their food, making them highly vulnerable to price increases.

In March and April 2007, Rwanda imported 9,259 MT of maize through the Gatuna border post with Uganda, consisting of 5,900 MT of grain and 3,359 MT of flour (Figure 4). This level of imports is comparable to the average level of the last two years and shows that domestic maize production is insufficient to satisfy national demand, especially as maize export levels are not significant.

WFP Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) pipeline update

For July to October 2007, food requirements to meet needs are estimated at 13,542 MT for all commodities (Figure 5). For the period, the WFP pipeline has a surplus of 2,252 MT, which should allow WFP to implement its assistance program in full. However, the projected balance by end October 2007 shows inadequate cereals and blended commodities in the pipeline by mid-October.