Food security is generally good throughout Tanzania. Food is widely available in markets, and prices are below-average. Farmers and traders are releasing stocks, following good vuli harvests in March in bimodal areas and in anticipation of good musimu harvests in May in unimodal areas. A dry spell in February relieved the impact of heavy rainfall in January, improving transportation and agricultural conditions. Food security conditions are expected to improve further in the coming months, with good pasture conditions and above-average musimu crop production starting in May.

Below-average and decreasing maize prices are benefiting consumers, but some farmers may not recuperate their production costs once the upcoming harvests are released on the market. Favorable trade policies will benefit producers by enabling sufficient market access for their crops.

Rift Valley Fever continues to impact the demand for and supply of livestock products. Demand for chicken and fish has increased as a result, driving up their prices, and households that rely on the market for meat have less access to sources of protein. Households that depend on the livestock industry for their livelihood are facing reduced incomes.

Seasonal calendar and rainfall regimes

Timeline of critical events	Rainfall regimes
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Food availability and access

Food is widely available throughout Tanzania, and prices are affordable. A dry spell in February improved transportation conditions, which had come to a standstill in January following abnormally high rainfall across the country.

Farmers in both bimodal and unimodal areas are selling their food stocks to obtain money to pay for agricultural labor and topdressing fertilizers in unimodal areas, and forland preparation and fertilizers for the masika season in bimodal areas. The release of the stocks has increased the supply of food in markets and improved food access for poor market-dependant households, particularly those who do not produce enough to meet their household requirements in rural areas, and low income earners in urban areas. Farmers that release their stocks at this time of the year normally receive higher prices for their crops than the prices received at time of the musimu and masika harvests, but this has not been the case this year. As such, farmers and traders selling their stocks now are negatively affected by the low prices and may not break even on their production costs, which threatens future investment in crop production and trading.

Maize prices have been decreasing in many markets (Figure 1). Prices in markets around Lake Victoria are decreasing seasonably in response to the increased supply of vuli crops (primarily non-cereals, such as sweet potatoes and pulses) that have started entering the markets. Maize prices are not likely to decrease further than the current price level, due to the limited amount of maize produced during the vuli season in the bimodal area, as the lake zone is normally a deficit maize-producing area and far from the surplus maize producing areas.

Figure 1. Maize wholesale prices in select markets, in TZS/100kg
Arusha (northern zone)	Dar es Salaam (main maize market)
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Dodoma (central zone)	Mtwara (southern coast)
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Musoma (lake zone)	Songea (southern highlands)
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Source: FEWS NET

Given the heavy damage to road infrastructure in central regions caused by above-normal rains in January, the distribution of maize in markets is yet to return back to normal, despite the dry spell that occurred in February. Maize prices are likely to rise if the March to May rains in unimodal areas are heavy and make transportation difficult. The low wholesale maize prices indicate that farm-gate prices have persistently remained low, threatening the investment capacity of maize producers. Low prices for agricultural produce not only provide a disincentive for farmers to produce large quantities in the following season, but also prevent poor farmers that produce low yields from being able to save. New markets and marketing sources, both domestically and outside Tanzania, are necessary for the masika and musimu crop surpluses, to stabilize prices and increase production incentives.

The maize export ban that was imposed in July/August of 2006 has led to the retention of large stocks of maize by farmers and petty traders. The heavy rains had affected road infrastructure, which in turn restricted the movement of maize when the ban was temporally lifted in December. Export opportunities were further limited as neighboring countries had already harvested or sourced from other areas; for example, the maize export ban to Kenya benefited Uganda by increasing export opportunities.

Rift Valley Fever affects livestock demand

Rift Valley Fever (RVF), an acute, fever-causing viral disease that affects livestock and humans, has severely impacted the commercial supply of and demand for red meat in many parts of the country and affected the livelihoods of households involved in the livestock trade. The disease is transmitted by mosquitoes that breed in floodwaters, and the outbreak was confirmed in Tanzania in February following the heavy rains in January.

RVF is transmitted to humans either through mosquitoes or by handling infected livestock carcasses, and the effects of the disease are similar to those of Ebola and other hemorrhagic fevers. To prevent the spread of the disease through contact or consumption of meat that has not been properly cooked, people in areas where there was an outbreak were warned to not slaughter animals without proper observation and meat inspection, and were advised to boil meat and milk thoroughly. In the northern areas of Arusha, Kilimanjaro and Manyara regions, where people (especially pastoralists) eat meat and drink livestock blood that has not been properly cooked, the disease can easily be spread to humans. This has led local authorities in RVF-infected areas to impose stern measures to reduce RVF human infection. These measures, together with the campaigns launched to combat the disease, have scared a lot of people, even in areas that have no outbreaks, which has greatly decreased the demand for and consumption of red meat.

This change in consumption patterns has increased the demand for and price of poultry and fish in the country. The supply of these protein sources has been constrained by an existing import ban on poultry and poultry products in the country in place since 2006 following a bird flu outbreak in some countries, and poor supply of both fresh and salt water fish caused by climatic changes and a poorly developed fishing industry. The increased demand for and limited supply of fish and poultry has led to price increases of these potential sources of protein. The price of chicken in most urban markets has increased from TZS 4,000 to 10,000, while a fish from Lake Victoria that was sold at TZS 2,200 per kg has increased to 3,500. The RVF outbreak has made animal protein consumption problematic in low-income urban households and for poor farmers in rural areas that usually depend on inexpensive livestock parts such as internal organs, lumen and intestines. The changes in consumption will also likely compound food insecurity by reducing the household income of casual laborers in abattoirs, people involved in roasting red meat and petty traders of fresh milk (mainly in major urban centers and pastoral areas).

Livestock vaccination against the disease is ongoing in many districts in the affected areas. The major limiting factor is the scarce availability of vaccines and funds for this intervention. By mid-March, Arusha Region had received only 500,000 doses of vaccines, but there are 3 million cattle in the region. The lack of funds to facilitate the process, such as for protective gear for vaccination, has also been reported. The government has developed a vaccination plan and appealed to the donor community for assistance for funds to finance the plan.

Seasonal weather progress and outlook

According to the Tanzania Meteorological Agency, the masika started early, during the first dekad of March, but the spatial distribution was generally poor over most bimodal rainfall pattern areas (the Lake Victoria basin, northeastern highlands and northern coast – Figure 2a). The musimu season has performed well in the unimodal areas, with normal to above-normal rains in most areas (Figure 2b). Excessive soil moisture was experienced in some areas of Mtwara, Mbeya (Chunya district) and Singida regions following flash floods, and hail storms were also reported in Mbulu District (Arusha Region). However, a dry spell between February and mid-March reduced the threat of excessive moisture that hindered crop growth and development in those areas.

Figure 2. Seasonal rainfall estimate by rainfall regime area, as percentage of normal
2a. Bimodal (Feb 1 through Apr 12)	2b. Unimodal (Oct 1, 2006 through Apr 12, 2007)
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Source: NOAA

Crop development and agricultural activities

Crop conditions are generally good, with the exception of in some coastal areas where an unusually long dry period has affected masika planting. In the rest of the bimodal rainfall regime areas, the planting of masika crops and weeding of early planted crops continued, mainly in Arusha, Manyara, Tanga, Pwani, Mwanza and Mara regions. A second planting of the bean crop was carried out, particularly in Kasulu, Kibondo, Mpanda, and Ngara districts of the northwest, where the crop was at the vegetative growth stage. Paddy was at various growth stages, ranging from land preparation to near ripeness, while cassava was also at various growth stages, and in a good state.

In unimodal areas, the adequate soil moisture has increased prospects for a good harvest season, which has increased agricultural activities and labor opportunities. In the west (Tabora, Sumbawanga and parts of Kigoma regions), maize was between late vegetative and ripening stages for the early planted and fast-maturing crop varieties. Paddy and cassava were at various stages and in good state. The general good crop development and performance of the musimu rains across the unimodal rainfall areas indicates good production and increased surpluses. A good crop harvest will have a particularly significant positive impact on food security in the central zone (Singida, Dodoma and Shinyanga regions), where chronic food shortages have persisted for the last five years due to drought conditions. If the masika season perfoms well in bimodal areas following the good vuli season, food availability will increase further and alleviate chronic food shortages in the northern areas of Monduli and Ngorongoro districts in Arusha Region and Same District in Kilimanjaro Region.

Pasture conditions and water levels in dams in across the country have improved significantly. The heavy rains have enabled adequate forage to grow for pastoral herds, and areas with a forage deficit in 2006 have recovered. With the current pasture and water availability, after controlling the threat caused by RVF, pastoralists are likely to start receiving high prices from the sale of their animals, as animal conditions have improved along with the pasture improvement.