Good October to December rains needed in northeastern pastoral and marginal agricultural areas

Figure 1. Forage deviations from long-term means   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: LEWS/GL_CRSP   Figure 2. Rising livestock prices in pastoral markets, in Ksh. per head of cattle FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: ALRMP

A favorable October to December short-rains season is needed to improve the food security of pastoralists in the north and east and marginal agricultural households in the southeast. These households were affected by below-normal long rains this year, and although their food security has remained stable so far, pasture conditions are deteriorating and household food stocks are running out. Although the rains have started in the northeast, if the season continues poorly the deterioration of pasture and cropping conditions may lead to a food security crisis for households in these areas in the coming months.

In northern and eastern pastoral districts, pasture, browse and water have been depleted rapidly over the past month (figure 1). Watering and grazing distances have risen to more than 20 km in many areas, and water tankering is ongoing. However, pastoral food security has so far remained stable. Pastoralist terms-of-trade have remained stable or improved, mainly as a result of favorable livestock prices that have increased consistently since April 2006 (figure 2). Livestock body conditions remain good, and several livestock diseases have been brought under control.  As a result, rates of child malnutrition have decreased in most pastoral districts between 5 and 20 percent during September, except in the conflict epicenters of Marsabit, Turkana and Tana River districts.

If the short rains fail to establish by the end of November, however, poor pasture conditions, extended trekking distances and water scarcity would cause body conditions and livestock productivity to deteriorate. Subsequently, the food security of pastoralists in these areas could worsen and turn into a severe crisis. Conversely, the food security of pastoralists in the northwest has improved substantially after favorable long rains that extended unseasonably into September. Still, livelihood-building interventions are needed across sectors to uphold the recovery process and increase the long-term resilience of pastoralist households throughout the country.

Farmers in the southeastern lowlands experienced a near-total crop failure after poor long rains this year. Household food stocks from the 2006 short-rains harvest are depleting, and water for both household and livestock is becoming scarcer. The food security of these households will likely decrease during the hunger season until the major short-rains harvest in February 2008. If the short rains fail, these households will face a food crisis in 2008. The inability of households in the region to strengthen their livelihoods even after an exceptional short-rains season in 2006 suggests that the marginal farming livelihood is far from self-sustaining, and implementation of recommended livelihood interventions is crucial.