Figure 1. Estimated current food security conditions in Nigeria, October to December 2007. FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

• Early harvests of crops, such as maize, cowpea, yam and groundnut, began in August, reinforcing household, regional and national stocks that still remain after two consecutive bumper harvests. However, the early cessation of rains in September, particularly in the dry savanna zone in the extreme north of Nigeria (bordering Niger and Chad), reduces the likelihood that the country will experience another bumper production year.

• October 2007 prices for staples such as maize, sorghum, millet and cowpea on Dawanau market have increased compared to prices in September 2007 and last year at this time. However, current prices for these goods remain below the 2005-07 average. Dawanau market, located in Kano, is the main northern market in Nigeria, and it supplies many northern and some southern markets in the country. Because Dawanau market is also one of the largest markets in West Africa, facilitating the trade of significant volumes of goods for the entire region, it is unclear whether recent price increases on this market will persist after harvesting activities are completed. Given that an early end of rains will likely lead to decreased production levels for some crops,reduced yields may lead to increased prices for goods, particularly in northern regions. If reduced availability and access occurs, it may lead to an early start of the hunger season, with moderate food insecurity, especially among poor households, as early as April/May. The normal lean period in these northern regions starts in June/July.                                                                   

• Despite relatively stable food security and livelihood conditions during this year’s hunger season, serious child malnutrition, mortality and morbidity conditions persist and require urgent attention in the Northwest Millet and Sesame Livelihood Zone, especially in the states of Katsina and Jigawa and part of Yobe. According to a joint food and nutrition survey conducted in August 2007 in this zone, 336,000 (56 percent) of the 600,000 children under five years of age living in this zone are stunted, while 252,000 (40 percent) are underweight, 62,400 are wasted (10.4 percent) and 5,400 (0.9 percent) are severely wasted.

2007/08 production season

Rainfall in the dry savannah zone during the 2007/08 agricultural season was marked by significant interruptions, and the rapid reduction in rains as the main agricultural season ended has negatively affected the maturation of late-planted and late-maturing crops in several states of northern Nigeria (such as Kano, Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno). States bordering Niger and Chad experienced the most significant water deficits, resulting in crop stress and localized crop failures for staples such as sorghum, millet, maize, cowpea, groundnut and soybean. Millet and sorghum are the dominant crops produced in these northern areas, with some maize interspersed. Maize and sorghum have been particularly affected by the rain shortages. Sorghum has not been harvested yet. Maize production is moving further north. Rice crops in these areas have also been significantly affected by a combination of dryness and pest attacks. About 60 percent of lowland rice crops in this region were not adequately flooded for production. The rice plants that did survive, thanks to intermittent rains, are now wilting. By comparison, millet, a more drought-resistant crop, was more resilient to the dry spells in these areas. In Sokoto, for instance, it is estimated that 70 percent of millet-cultivated areas will have a normal harvest.

Figure 4. Flood and drought-affected areas of Nigeria. FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Between the prolonged dry spell in June and July and additional dryness from mid-September to early October, severe flooding was reported in several states in August (Figure 4), causing human death, loss of property and livestock and damage to infrastructure. Additional flooding in September led to the overflow of the Niger and Benue Rivers, damaging infrastructure in nearby communities and flooding farmlands. In total, the floods resulted in the deaths of an estimated 64 people and the displacement of over 22,000. Towns and villages close to rivers remain at risk, as the proliferation of stagnant flood water has increased the incidence of waterborne disease and malaria. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), state governments and humanitarian organizations such as the Red Cross continue to provide relief assistance to flood-affected populations.

Impacts on household food security

The combined effect of dry spells in May, June and July, flooding in August and long dry spells in September and early October is likely to reduce yields in many states located in extreme northern Nigeria (such as Jigawa, parts of Kano, Katsina, Central Kebbi, Yobe and Borno). Given existing crop damage from insufficient rains in these areas, the resumption of rainfall during the first dekad of October is unlikely to have prevented reductions in yield in some areas. However, these rains will likely help to reduce the magnitude of crop failures in these northern areas. Decreased yields in these areas could result in increased prices for commodities, reduced household grain reserves and an early exhaustion of those reserves. The reduced availability of and access to these goods could result in moderate food insecurity for these northern populations by April.

In contrast, rainfall continues in the south (Lagos, Osun, Ogun) and the north-central part of the country (Nassarawa, Gombe, Southern Kaduna, Plateau), with normal to above-normal intensity, and expectations for a bumper harvest remain high. However, bumper crop production in southern parts of the country will only partially compensate for potential production deficits in northern Nigeria, as production in the south is more centered on tubers and pulses than cereals. These southern crops are not key foods in the diet of northern households. In addition, the high cost of transporting food from surplus production areas of the south to deficit production areas of the north, due in part to the poor quality of roads, would result in higher prices for these foods in the north, thus making access difficult for poor households. Increased demand for goods from the north might also result in higher prices for all commodities in these southern and north-central areas. Given this expected reduction in access and availability, affected households will likely engage in a combination of coping strategies to increase their income and food sources, including selling their labor and engaging in off season cropping.

In addition, comparatively high prices for maize might result in higher prices for poultry feed, and subsequent higher prices of poultry and poultry products. High feed prices could adversely impact the poultry industry, which is trying to recover from several outbreaks of avian influenza. The high cost of poultry and eggs might lead to decreased demand for these products, causing a potential deterioration in revenue sources for households who sell poultry and poultry products for income. High prices for these products may also reduce the number of available protein sources for children under five years of age.

Despite the production losses anticipated due to dry spells in the extreme north of Nigeria, harvest of crops such as maize, early maturing millet, yam, cocoyam, groundnut, cowpea, soybeans and potatoes have been underway since August in northern areas that did not experience significant drought conditions, as well as in southern areas. These crops are available on urban and rural markets and have reinforced the food reserves of households before the main harvest. These early harvests are also reducing poor households’ dependence on markets for their food.

Figure 5. Retail prices for maize in select markets FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Namis Figure 6. Retail prices for millet in select markets FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Namis Figure 7. Retail prices for cowpea in select markets FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Namis Figure 8. Trends in wholesale grain prices in Dawanau Market, Kano, 2007/07 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Namis

The season’s dry spells have also led to below-normal pasture production in these northern areas, which could result in price increases for fodder, further stressing poor households’ expenditures. The combined impacts of these unfavorable conditions are likely to result in an early onset of the lean period in April/May, (as opposed to June/July) and moderate food insecurity, particularly for poor households in the extreme northern states of Nigeria.

Market conditions

The prices of major staples were stable across most of the country in September, despite the adverse impacts of the dry spells and flooding. The average September prices for 100 kg of maize and millet were respectively N2,795 to N2,450 (Figures 5 and 6). In northern Nigeria, despite the dryness and flooding, particularly in Kaduna, Borno, Kano and Gombe states, the prices of these staples were lower in September 2007 than the prices at the same period in 2006, owing to existing market stocks and the arrival of important quantities of maize, early maturing millet and cowpea from non-drought-affected areas onto markets beginning in August.

In contrast, cowpea prices rose suddenly, by an average of 20 percent in the northern states of Borno and Gombe in September (Figure 7), due to trader retention of cowpea stocks following the early end of the season in these states and prospects for a below-average production year for cowpea in these areas.

Prices for staples did begin to increase slightly in northern Nigeria’s Dawanau market between September and October (Figure 8). Prices for maize and sorghum in this market rose approximately 30 percent between September and October 2007, while millet prices increased 23 percent and cow pea prices increased about seven percent. Current prices for maize and sorghum on this market are about 25 percent above prices in October 2006, while millet prices are about six percent higher and cow pea prices are about five percent lower than last year’s prices. Because Kano’s Dawanau market is one of the largest in West Africa, facilitating significant volumes of trade for much of the region, it is unclear whether these recent price increases will persist and begin to affect price trends in other markets or whether market prices will stabilize when main-season and off-season harvesting activities are complete and official 2007/08 production totals are released.

Expected trends for the next coming months

Maize production levels for 2007 are expected to be lower than previous years’ levels, not only because of poor rainfall but also because of the reduction in acreage cultivated by farmers due to the low market prices for maize since 2006. Maize stocks that are still in the markets are relatively low and offers for newly harvested maize are poor, though farmers report having significant on-farm stocks of the grain. Demand for maize from the poultry sector also remains weak.

Household and industry-derived demand for sorghum (especially from breweries) is high. While the majority of this crop has not yet been harvested, harvest prospects are generally below-average. Farmers are currently withholding their stocks of this crop, hoping that price increases continue so that, when they sell at a later date, they will recoup some of the costs of production. Farmers are also withholding some stocks for their own consumption, to avoid paying extremely high market prices for the crop later in the year due to production shortfalls. On the whole, sorghum prices are expected to increase over the coming months.

Because millet was not as seriously affected by the dry spells and because farmers’ and traders’ existing stocks are substantial, only moderate price increases for millet are anticipated, initially. Millet prices could increase, however, if surplus demand for maize and sorghum lead to increased demand for this cereal as a substitute.

Market prices are not expected to fluctuate significantly for cowpea, given that existing stocks are substantial and normal production levels are anticipated in areas of north-central Nigeria that were not affected by dry spells. However, in some major production areas like Borno and Gombe, markets are reacting to fears of reduced yields this season with a significant price increase.

Generally, it is expected that prices will increase moderately for most crops, given substantial amounts of available stock and the existence of a diversity of substitute products. However, significant price increases are possible where:

• An early exhaustion of household stocks occurs, mainly due to poor harvests this year and/or
• Industry-derived demand is not met, particularly in areas where reduced yields are anticipated.

Nutrition in the Northwest Millet Sesame Livelihood Zone

Concerns among national and international stakeholders about reports that malnourished Nigerian children were contributing to increased admissions rates in Therapeutic Feeding Centers (TFCs) in Niger led FEWS NET to participate in a joint rapid nutrition assessment in August in the Northwest Millet Sesame Livelihood Zone. The goal of the assessment was to estimate the prevalence of acute malnutrition in this zone and to better understand its causes. The assessment covered 19 local government areas within Jigawa and Katsina states, with an estimated total population of three million people, of which approximately 20 percent are children under five years of age.

The assessment results indicate that serious child malnutrition, mortality and morbidity exists in the Northwest Millet and Sesame Livelihood Zone, despite relatively stable food security and livelihood conditions during this year’s hunger season. The prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) in the livelihood zone was assessed at 10.4 percent, while the severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rate was 0.9 percent. Measurements based on the mid-upper arm circumference showed a 1.5 percent severe acute malnutrition. The 10.4 percent GAM rate represents a serious situation based on the World Health Organization’s severity threshold. The stunting rate was 56 percent, and 42.2 percent of children were underweight. The assessment team found that infant feeding practices and maternal care capacities are generally poor, and child morbidity levels are concerning. Unprotected wells represent the predominant source of water in the assessed zone, and use of traditional pit latrines and the bush – practices which often lead to potable water contamination - are reportedly common. Seventy-five percent of mothers stated that they introduced complementary foods to their children before six months of age and 85 percent of mothers in the assessed areas could not read or write. Less than one percent of mothers reported using modern family planning methods. The assessment team confirmed that malnourished Nigerian children from some communities near the Niger border attended TFCs in Niger. In the Katsina portion of the livelihood zone, of the 29 focus group discussions conducted, it was confirmed in 23 that children were crossing the border to benefit from medical treatment and feeding programs in Niger. In the Jigawa State portion of the livelihood zone, of the 22 focus group discussions conducted, only six confirmed that children cross the border for treatments in Niger. Distance and availability of basic health services appear to be the major factors motivating these movements into Niger.

Ninety-day retrospective mortality data showed that crude mortality rates (CMR) in the assessed areas were 0.67/10,000/day, with an under-five mortality rate of 2.04/10,000 children/day. These exceed the CMR rate of 0.44/10,000/day for sub-Saharan Africa and 0.38/10,000/day for least developed countries. The under-five mortality rate also approaches the 2.3 emergency threshold for sub-Saharan Africa and the 2.1 rate for least developed countries. The morbidity results show that about 40 percent of the children reported having at least one form of illness (e.g. diarrhea, cough, fever) during the two week period prior to the survey. Malaria was indicated as the most endemic health challenge in the zone. About 50 percent of children in the zone had been immunized for measles at the time of the study, while about eight percent had Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccinations, to boost immunity against tuberculosis. About 60 percent of surveyed families reported that their children had received Vitamin A supplements in the last six months.

Major sources of income at the time of the assessment included petty trade (24.5 percent), sale of cash crops and livestock (about 15 percent each) and casual labor (about 18 percent). At the time of the assessment, prices of major staples (millet, sorghum) were lower compared to this time last year, with good availability, while the price of livestock was higher. The livestock conditions were found to be generally good.

Given the results of this assessment, it is recommended that coverage of immunization and vitamin supplementation activities be improved; that a range of community based nutrition support programs be implemented, including the Hearth model, growth monitoring and promotion, nutrition education and training of community health workers and equipping health facilities with growth monitoring and food demonstration tools. Government interventions in nutrition education and behavioral change communication, as well as establishment of health posts within or nearer to some of the communities bordering Niger are also recommended. In the medium to long term, efforts need be made to improve infant and young child feeding practices, while increasing programmatic emphasis on the provision of a safe water supply and use of better latrine systems.