Figure 1. Current food security status FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: ALRMP/KFSSG/Assessment Team

Figure 2. Rainfall anomalies during March FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS/FEWS NET

The Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) is unanimous in the conclusion that substantial, widespread improvements in food security registered at the conclusion of the 2006 short-rains season need to be harnessed through immediate implementation of mitigation and recovery activities. Such activities are intended to consolidate the recovery process and enhance the resilience of pastoral and marginal agricultural livelihoods, in the likely event that another shock or hazard strikes. The activities are also needed to break the cycle of dependency on relief assistance in the midst of deepening chronic food insecurity. Areas of severe food insecurity remain, especially in areas that were affected by Rift Valley Fever and floods (see figure 1). Food distributions under General Feeding and Food for Assets programs will continue for the next six months targeting about 919,000 persons situated predominantly in the pastoral areas, down from 3.1 million at the beginning of 2006. The domestic supply of maize, the key staple, is favorable, and the country is well supplied through the next eight months. However, the erratic start of the 2007 cropping season in some areas is causing concern.

The 2007 long-rains season begins erratically

The critical 2007 long-rains season has begun in few areas of the country, most of them situated in the key producing areas in western and south western parts of the country. Localized pastoral areas also received significant rains in March. However, most of the rest of country remained dry during the month, after exceptionally heavy rains in the just-concluded short-rains season. Figure 2 illustrates the rainfall anomalies during March. Most areas of the country depict substantial rainfall deficits through March, in part, a function of the delayed season onset. The long rains should have begun in mid-March in all areas outside pastoral livelihood zones. However, this did not happen except in western and southwestern areas around the Lakeshore where significant rains occurred. Nevertheless the delayed onset has aided land preparation in several areas of the country where short rains harvests were still in the field and where soils remained unworkable for long periods, following an extended short-rains season. Should rains fail to begin in earnest within the next two weeks, the delay in the season onset will be significant enough to warrant serious concern. Meteorologists have also indicated that 2007 long rains are likely to be erratic, and this could have adverse impacts, especially on cropping areas that require consistent rainfall through the crops’ growing stages.

Recovery and long-term interventions are critical to sustain improvements in pastoral food security

Results from the 2006 short rains assessments (detailed in the Kenya Food Security Update of 11 March, 2007), point to substantial improvements in food security across the country and more importantly in pastoral areas affected by drought, Rift Valley Fever (RVF) and floods. The Arid Lands and Resource Management Project (ALRMP) has indicated that the favorable food security conditions for the majority of pastoral households have generally held firm through March and are likely to improve further since the ban on the movement, slaughter and trade of livestock has been lifted in the RVF-affected districts. The assumption is that the long rains will be normal, as anticipated. Pasture, water and browse are readily available in most areas; livestock body conditions have improved across the pastoral areas; livestock prices are 10-20 percent higher that normal outside the RVF-affected areas of Ijara, Wajir, Garissa and Tana River districts. In addition, rates of child malnutrition have declined steadily from October through March in most pastoral areas, outside the flooded areas where an upsurge in water and vector borne diseases was reported. Milk availability to households has also improved due to the rise in calving, kidding and lambing, aided by the fact that most livestock did not need to migrate to dry season grazing areas due to ready availability of key grazing resources. Nevertheless, an upsurge in diseases, most notably the RVF, Lumpy Skin Disease and the contagious bovine pleuro pneumonia reversed anticipated gains from the favorable short rains season, particularly in Garissa, Tana River, Wajir, Isiolo and Ijara districts.

Figure 3. Sustained period of heightened food insecurity FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: KFSSG/WFP VAM

The Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) has reached the conclusion that urgent mitigation and recovery programs are central to sustaining the recovery process. The absence of such programs has often led to the use of relief assistance as a stop-gap measure even as chronic food insecurity becomes entrenched. In spite of large food disbursements, food insecurity has risen precariously since 2003 (see figure 3). However, the recent widespread improvements in food security have provided the best opportunity yet for implementation of mitigation and recovery programs so as to systematically address the underlying causes of food insecurity that invariably accentuate the impacts of any one poor season. Key underlying causes of food insecurity in the pastoral livelihood include the inability of households to recover completely when conditions do improve, due to the increased frequency and length of droughts and floods, whose impacts are rarely addressed through comprehensive recovery programs; a poorly functioning trade infrastructure for a livelihood that is heavily market-dependent; sustained debilitating conflict that often results in the loss of life and livestock assets; extensive land degradation due to over use of increasingly scarce resources as drought seasons become more frequent; a rise in destitution accentuating the dependency on external assistance after pastoralists lose their livestock during droughts; and disproportionate household dependence on livestock as their sole productive asset. Subsequently, the KFSSG has proposed interventions that are expected to take advantage of current favorable food security conditions that are intended to build the resilience of the pastoral livelihood. The interventions formulated by the KFSSG and recommended to the government, donors and NGOs include:

• Establish hunger safety nets: It is recommended that cash-based transfers are piloted in three to four extremely food insecure districts for a three to four year period, in combination with other interventions. The safety nets are intended to lift chronically vulnerable people out of deepening food insecurity and dependence on relief assistance. Estimated costs for cash transfers: US$ 78 million, covering 300,000 people for four years.
• Establish certification system for the Rift Valley Fever and other diseases requiring quarantines: In order to combat the threat of an international ban on Kenyan livestock exports and thereby protect livestock producers, it is recommended that the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development establish a certification system with support from FAO. Initial cost of setting up the system: US$ 2 million.
• Rehabilitate and develop infrastructure in the market-dependent pastoral livelihood zones: The repair of infrastructure damaged by the recent floods including roads markets, bridges, irrigation canals, water pipelines, damaged and silted water pans; and longer-term investment in developing infrastructure, particularly roads is recommended to enable the economy of the most vulnerable areas to develop and transform. An assessment is required to estimate the extent of damage and cost of repairs.
• Address chronically high malnutrition and poor access to health services: While malnutrition rates have improved, anthropometric data suggests that the prevalence of malnutrition remains unacceptably high, especially in the pastoralist livelihood zones. It is recommended that the KFSSG put together a group of experts to analyze the data arising from the Multi Indicator Cluster Surveys to elucidate underlying causes of high malnutrition prevalence. Promotion of nutritional surveillance and growth monitoring systems and the general strengthening of primary health services in pastoral areas in particular is important.
• Assist destitute pastoralists: A study needs to be commissioned to investigate the scale of destitution among pastoral communities, and potential solutions, either through restocking or adopting alternative livelihoods, to assist pastoralists who have lost their livelihoods. Estimated cost of the study: US$ 90,000.
• Drought Management: Strengthen existing Early Warning and Food Security Analysis systems to inform the EC’s Drought Management Initiative and particularly the National Contingency Fund. Costs: within ALRMP budget and other supporting projects, namely FAO, WFP, UNDP and UNICEF.
• Enhance emergency preparedness: Set up pastoral field schools in pastoral livelihood zones to address some of the underlying causes of the pastoral vulnerability, with FAO and the GoK taking the lead. Initial cost of the first phase: US$ 3 million.
• Land, water and crop management: Promote improved crop husbandry, soil and water conservation, use of drought tolerant seeds and appropriate range management practices in order to optimize production and protect fragile environments in the arid and semi-arid areas.
• Enacting the National Policy for the Sustainable Development of Arid and Semi Arid Lands of Kenya: It is recommended that this draft policy be enacted by the Government of Kenya, and coordination mechanisms be put in place for its implementation, with the support of the international donor community.

Specific activities under each intervention option are detailed in the full 2006 Short Rains Assessment Report.

In the next six months, the agriculture sector needs US$ 8.3 million; livestock sector, US$ 28.6 million; water and sanitation, US$ 10 million; health and nutrition, US$ 3.4 million.

Downscaled emergency program set to continue through September 2007

The need for free food distributions has decreased following clear improvements in household food security in the previously drought-affected areas, and 10 districts have been removed from the general food distribution program. Food resources will increasingly be used as a safety net to support the most vulnerable section of communities, in collaboration with other safety net approaches such as cash transfers. In addition, it is critical that the food aid be complemented by relevant non-food aid assistance. Asset creation projects are expected to be implemented in cases where less than 50 percent of the targeted geographical area requires food aid, providing a maximum of 50 percent of the standard daily ration. However, it is recommended that limited and well targeted free food distributions continue for a transitional period as re-programming occurs.

The food allocation sub-committee of the KFSSG proposes to provide free food assistance through September 2007 to 819,000 people in 14 districts, while 271,000 primary school children will be under the expanded school feeding program, and 120,000 people will be targeted under the selective feeding program. A further 100,668 people will be targeted for cash/food for assets projects. Gross food requirements for the next six months are estimated at 84,723 MT, valued at approximately US$ 48 million, targeting just over 1.3 million people. Of this, 60,000 MT is already resourced either in-country or in the pipeline, leaving a net requirement of approximately 25,000 MT valued at US$ 14 million.

The Short Rains Assessment Report recognizes that chronically and acutely food insecure populations continue to experience unacceptably high levels of acute malnutrition. The proposed areas of intervention focus on nutrition-related interventions within the health services to detect and manage cases; the provision of a supplementary ration; the promotion of better healthcare practices; supplementation of food and increased access to fortified foods.

The report also recommends that the early warning community monitors markets and provides regular market analysis, which generates information on food availability and access and price trends that will serve as an essential input in planning and targeting cash and food for assets interventions.

The 2007 cropping season begins slowly as maize prices remain largely stable in most markets

The 2007 long rains season is already underway in key growing areas situated in western and southwestern Kenya as well as in the ”grain-basket” Rift Valley Province. However, less than 30 percent of the land has been planted so far in the key growing areas, attributed to the continuation of unseasonable rains well into February, rendering soils unworkable. Less than 10 percent of the land has been put to crops in other cropping areas including Central, Eastern and Coast provinces. The low planting percentages are attributed to a combination of late harvesting of the short rains crop and to a delayed onset of the long rains. Little or no rains have occurred, three weeks into the season. While the delay in the season onset has facilitated harvesting of the short rains crop and land preparation, a further delay may signal the probability of an unfavorable season.

The country is well supplied with maize, the key staple, after good long and short rains seasons in 2006, resulting in a 3 million MT harvest that compares favorably with the 10-year average harvest of about 2.63 million MT. Significant imports from Uganda and Tanzania at the start of the marketing year in July 2006 through March 2007 have further boosted the domestic supply of grain. The Ministry of Agriculture has indicated that the country has a 7.6 month supply of grain at a national consumption rate of 250,000 MT per month starting from the beginning of April. Farmers are holding 1 million MT of maize; traders 310,000 MT; millers 127,800 MT and the National Cereals and Produce Board 402,500 MT. An estimated 2,000 MT of maize, beans, rice and millet were imported into the country from Uganda and Tanzania during March. Figure 4 illustrates the maize supply through the end of the marketing year in June 2007.

Table 1. Maize supply, August 2006-June 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: MoA, NCPB and Millers

While the domestic supply of maize has improved significantly, prices have declined fairly slowly, in part attributed to the decision by the National Cereal and Produce Board’s (NCPB) to purchase maize at Ksh 1,400 per 90-kg bag. However, the price of grains and pulses has declined significantly in the short rains-dependent marginal agricultural areas that traditionally sell off their harvests fairly rapidly and do not normally sell their produce to the NCPB. In many of these areas, maize prices are 20-30 percent lower than in key reference markets, underlining the limited potential for income earning for some of the most food insecure farm households, even after a rare bumper harvest.

Conclusion

The drought and flood-affected pastoral and marginal agricultural farm households have registered significant gains in food security, reflected by the marked reduction in the number of relief food beneficiaries. Pockets of significant food insecurity remain especially in the pastoral areas that were unable to benefit from a favorable season after the outbreak of the RVF as well as flooding. The general consensus within the Kenya Food Security Network is that now is the time to begin to implement recovery and developmental programs. Required mitigation and recovery activities drawn from the short rains assessment and summarized on page 2 of this update should begin to redress chronic food insecurity if they are implemented decisively.