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Food insecurity remains pervasive in Northern Uganda and Karamoja. The World Food Programme (WFP) is implementing feeding programs in both areas, but a break in the pipeline is expected in April. In Northern Uganda, some of the 1.4 million IDPs have begun to return home as civil security, while still uncertain, becomes relatively stable. While their access to land closer to their original homes has improved, humanitarian organizations are concerned that they are losing access to land near the camps, land which is increasingly being reclaimed by host communities. Access to basic health and sanitation services remains poor. The future food security of these IDPs depends on the success of the planned resumption of peace talks in April between the Government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). In Karamoja, poor harvests in 2006 have left 500,000 people dependent on WFP food assistance. An outbreak of Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR), a viral disease, has been infecting sheep and goats in Kaabong, Kotido and Moroto districts, with devastating consequences. Food from other parts of the country in available, but prices are higher than normal.

Farmers in Uganda’s bi-modal areas are still awaiting the onset of the March – May rainy season. Sporadic rainfall thus far has allowed land preparation, but only limited sowing. The forecast does however anticipate normal to above normal seasonal rainfall everywhere except in the east and southwest, where it is expected to be below normal to normal. While supplies of staple foods are adequate in most areas, prices remain above the average for the last five years. Banana prices, while above average, have been declining, a sign of improved production as Banana Bacterial Wilt (BBW) is contained.

Seasonal Timeline

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Key food security concerns

Through its Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO), WFP is currently providing food assistance to 500,000 drought-affected persons in Karamoja and about 1.4 million IDPs in Northern Uganda, in addition to about 160,000 refugees elsewhere in the country. WFP expects a break in the pipeline in April and is urgently sourcing commitments from donors to continue operations.

Northern Uganda: IDP resettlement accelerates ahead of rainy season

Continuing efforts to restart the northern Uganda peace process gained footing following a meeting in Sudan between the Government of Uganda and the LRA, when parties agreed to resume negotiations in April 2007. Any return to normalcy in the region is contingent on the full implementation of a lasting peace. District officials, WFP and other humanitarian and non-government organizations (NGOs) continue to provide food and non food assistance to the IDPs that continue to be inadequately accessible, including basic health, water and sanitation services.

The relative calm that has continued in the region has encouraged some of the region’s 1.4 million IDPs to return home. Some are now maintaining two homes, in the camp and a relocation site. However, while access to land is gradually improving closer to their original homes, host communities around the camps are increasingly reclaiming the land once used by IDPs. The March-May seasonal rains have yet to begin in earnest, but the forecast does anticipate normal to above normal levels of cumulative rainfall this season.

Karamoja: Food insecurity persists following 2006 drought; disease threatens goats and sheep

District officials and NGOs working in the region report that household food stocks and internal supplies to markets are very low, following poor harvests in 2006. An estimated 500,000 people are moderately food insecure and are dependent on WFP food distributions for half of their minimum daily energy requirement. Most of the grain commercially available is supplied from neighboring districts, such as Soroti and Mbale. Food prices are reportedly higher than normal, limiting access to food, especially for over half of the households that have no livestock to sell or exchange for cereals. With no significant agricultural activities taking place, many of the poorer pastoral households now depend on the limited labor opportunities available, including stone quarrying, collecting wood-fuel and poles to sell, gathering wild berries, vegetables and honey as well as hunting small animals. Households with livestock can sell animals and use the proceeds to access food from markets. Livestock/cereal terms of trade are stable, affording these households adequate food.

Predominantly dry conditions, normal for this time of the year, continue in Karamoja. The forecast for the upcoming season in Karamoja calls for below normal to normal levels of cumulative rainfall. If this season’s rains are again poor, the number of food insecure persons will increase.

Local pasture conditions remain poor and Karamojong pastoralists are now fully grazing their livestock in the normal dry season grazing areas to the south and west of the region. Only a few livestock remain closer to homes to provide households with milk and other products.

An outbreak of highly contagious Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR), a viral disease attacking sheep and goats, has been reported in Kaabong, Kotido and Moroto districts since March. Veterinarians first reported the disease in Kotido district on March 21, where it has reportedly killed almost up to two-thirds of the animals in some areas. The disease spreads quickly in large flocks and herds, but can be devastating for poor households relying on only a small number of animals for food and income. The disease is spreading fast in all directions and may have crossed into other districts because of trade in the small livestock. The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries and district officials, are still assessing the situation to determine the magnitude of the problem, and no control or treatment measures are yet in place. Control measures, though necessary, will inevitable limit the income earning potential for households raising goats and sheep.

Rainy season off to a slow start, with only sporadic rains thus far

The end of February and beginning of March normally mark the start to the first rainy season in the southern half of the country; however only sporadic rains have fallen across the region since early March, denoting almost a three-week delay to the beginning of the season. Rains in the northern districts generally begin in earnest toward the end of March and the beginning of April.

March to June/July constitutes the major cropping season in central, eastern and northern Uganda, while it is a minor – but not unimportant – season in western and southwestern Uganda. Although many farmers have opened and cleared land in preparation of the season, the low moisture levels so far have not allowed widespread sowing of annual crops in most bimodal areas. The late onset of rains is likely to shorten the crop-growing period if rains end normally in June. A shortened season would likely affect crops during critical stages, reducing yields.

Figure 1. Downscaled rainfall forecast, March to May 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source of data: Uganda Department of Meteorology Graphic: FEWS NET, March 2007

A majority of Ugandan farmers use their own seeds saved from the previous season’s crop, and some purchase grains and pulses from the markets for sowing. These sources are augmented by commercially available improved and hybrid seed and fertilizer sold by independent traders in major towns across the country. There are adequate agricultural inputs (seed and fertilizer) available for the current season.

While IDPs are gaining access to land closer to their homes, they are losing access to land near the camps, and host communities begin to reclaim this land. Reports by district officials indicate that some farmers in safe areas have already dry sown millet and sorghum. Farmers in northeastern Karamoja Region will begin opening land and sowing by late April to May, when the rainy season is expected to begin.

Weather experts from the Greater Horn of Africa and International Organizations held a Climate Outlook Forum in Nairobi, Kenya, in early March, to derive a rainfall forecast for the March to May 2007 period. Following the meeting, the Uganda Department of Meteorology issued a downscaled medium range forecast, which suggests a high probability that most of the Lake Victoria basin and central, western, north western and central northern Uganda will receive normal to above normal cumulative seasonal rains. There is increased likelihood of below normal to normal rainfall over parts of eastern, northeastern and southwestern Uganda (see figure 1). If the forecast holds, central Uganda is likely to receive adequate rainfall to support normal crop and livestock production as farmers have adequate access to seed and other agricultural inputs. However, a poor season in other parts of the country is a possibility. The consequences for food security would be particularly significant in those unimodal areas, like Karamoja, where harvests were poor in 2006. The department notes that current sporadic rain showers and often windy thunderstorms experienced in parts of eastern, central, western and south western and the Lake Victoria basin are precursors to the start of well distributed rains.

Banana production increases as Banana Bacterial Wilt is contained

Banana Bacterial Wilt (BBW) remains a significant problem in Uganda, where it has spread to nearly all growing areas and poses serious threats to the livelihoods of many households (Uganda Bureau of Statistics estimates that the livelihoods of almost a quarter of all rural households in Uganda are dependent on banana production for food and income). However, concerted efforts of farmers, district officials, the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, research and non government organizations have helped to keep the spread of the disease in check. Consequently, productivity has increased, and banana prices have been falling from unusual highs since December.

Staple food prices above average but within reach for most households

Figure 2. Comparative wholesale banana prices for key growing areas - Mbarara and Masaka: 2001-02/06 average vs. 2006/07 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Market Information Service; Graphics: FEWS NET/Uganda, March 2007

Market information from major commercial traders in Kampala and traders in other urban centers indicates that supplies of staple crops are still adequate, and households dependent on markets are generally food secure. However, prices are currently higher than normal (five year average from 2001/02 – 20005/06), and households’ purchasing power has declined.

Banana production in major growing areas has been improving, thanks to favorable growing conditions in 2006 and the gradual containment of BBW. Consequently, prices in key growing areas have been falling since early 2007 (after the annual peak in demand during the festive season), however they still remain above average (see figure 2).