There is a general consensus that Zimbabwe’s 2006/07 cereal production has to be complemented by imports of over 1 million MT if the country is to meet cereal requirements for the 2007/08 consumption year. The government and donor community need to mobilize for an immediate and coordinated response to address the growing levels of food insecurity in the country. The recent joint FAO and WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment mission (CFSAM) estimated total cereal production at 1,055,000 MT, an amount 315,000 MT higher than earlier estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture. According to the CFSAM estimate, Zimbabwe faces a shortfall of maize, sorghum and millets of 1,052,000 MT, of which maize comprises 813,000 MT. The government has made arrangements with Malawi to import 400,000 MT of maize this marketing year. To date, 70,000 MT have been delivered. However, a significant gap remains, and to close it, the Government of Zimbabwe, humanitarian agencies, donor community and other relevant and interested partners have to work out plans to address the food insecurity problems faced by the nation.

In June 2007, the availability of cereals in rural areas declined as most households, particularly those in the southern and western parts of the country, are already running out of their food stocks from their current harvests, and alternative sources, including farmer to farmer transactions and GMB supplies, are erratic. Most of the farmers in southern and western Zimbabwe did not have a good harvest from the 2006/07 agricultural season.

The steady rise in maize grain prices has made it difficult for this season’s deficit farmers to access the commodity. The annual rate of inflation has continuously increased, and most households have not been able to meet their minimum food and non-food requirements, and instead have cut back on expenses for education, transport and medical services.

Current winter wheat production is likely to range between 120,000 MT and 135,000 MT, slightly less than last season’s crop production of 144,000 MT and near the average for the last five years. Problems encountered by wheat farmers last year persisted this year; shortages of fertilizer, fuel, and farming equipment and the late disbursement of funds have induced farmers to reduce the area planted to the winter crop.

Seasonal calendar

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National and sub-national maize grain availability

Both the availability and accessibility of cereals pose difficulties for most rural communities. Although most households have completed harvesting, most harvests were poor, particularly in the southern and western parts of the country. Households in these areas now mainly rely on maize grain purchases from open markets where prices are very high. This shows a disturbing food security situation; soon after harvests most households are already out of own production stocks. Maize grain prices in both rural and urban areas continued to increase in line with inflation, and in June, this was further worsened by limited supplies from the current harvests and GMB supplies. Currently, the GMB is in the process of replenishing their stocks by buying grain from the few surplus producers, particularly in the northen part of the country who managed to get a good harvest. The planned grain imports are targeted for the food insecure districts, mainly in the southern and western parts of the country.

Map 1a. Maize grain prices, May 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Map 1b. Maize grain prices, June 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Source: FEWS NET

Again in June in Matabeleland South, there were limited sales of maize grain among farmers. Communities in this area relied on purchasing maize meal from retail shops in the districts. This picture was also observed in Matabeleland North, covering Tsholotsho, Umguza, and Bubi districts. Maps 1a and 1b indicate the range of maize grain price in Zimbabwe in May and June 2007. These prices were derived from common markets within districts and from farmers trading maize grain. Generally, households in areas where prices are now above ZW $46,000/kg are considered to be facing cereal access problems. These areas were also identified as highly to very highly food insecure by the CFSAM, and immediate assistance was recommended. White areas indicate that farmers do not have grain to trade among themselves and there are no open markets. Instead, the majority of households in these areas are relying on GMB supplies and maize meal from local shops.

Maize grain prices across the country increased sharply in June 2007, and areas with poor production recorded highest prices of above ZW $ 85,000 per 17.5kg. These areas include Chimanimani, the southern districts of Masvingo, Hwange and Nkayi in Matebeleland North, and Nyanga in Manicaland province. Areas that recorded the lowest rate of increase were mainly in the northern part of the country, where the deficit farmers indicated that they were accessing grain from some resettled A2 farmers who had better production, because they had irrigation programs. In districts recording the lowest prices, (Mazowe, Mt Darwin and Shamva in the north), households and communal farmers are able to access grain at relatively low prices from resettlement areas where there was a surplus.

The monthly Community Food Security Monitoring done by the Consortium for Southern Africa Food Security Emergency (C-SAFE) in the southern part of the country has indicated that maize grain and maize meal was not available to households from normal sources. Most households reported that their cereal access had declined. There were no farmer to farmer transactions; maize grain was difficult to get from the GMB, and maize meal was only available in retail shops at very high prices. FEWS NET price monitoring reflected increased prices ranging from ZW$ 4,000/kg to ZW$ 10,000/kg in June 2007 for unrefined maize meal, with the highest prices recorded in Chimanimani (Manicaland province) and Matabeleland provinces. Only a few households in the grain deficit districts held cereal stocks from 2005/06 harvest. To cope, households are engaging in vending, mainly selling vegetables; livestock sales were minimal given the reduction in livestock holdings, and most sold was poultry. Some members from poor households were engaged in off-farm casual activities (including grass cutting, brick molding and firewood collection) where payment was in form of food. Virtually all households in these highly food insecure districts are employing negative coping strategies: reducing the number and size of daily meals or increased borrowing of food and money to buy food.

Figure 1. Cost of monthly expenditure basket for low-income urban household if six in Harare   FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: CCZ & LEDRIZ

Cost of living remains high

High inflation levels in Zimbabwe have grossly eroded the purchasing power of most urban and rural households. In April 2007, the Central Statistical Office measured the annual inflation rate at 3,713.9 percent. Though May 2007 official inflation figures have not been published, it is widely anticipated that the level will maintain the upward trend. Prices of all commodities have kept pace with this ever rising inflation. To cope with the general rise in prices, most households in both urban and rural areas have cut expenses on education, transport and medical services.

The total cost of a monthly expenditure basket of a low income urban household monitored by the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe increased from ZW$ 3,349,051 in April 2007 to ZW$ 5,549,252 in May 2007, an increase of 65.7 percent (figure 1). Significant price increases were recorded on water and electricity, which rose by 251.1 percent, clothing and foot wear by 241.1 percent and transport by 150 percent. Among food items, meat rose by 84.4 percent and bread by 76.5 percent. In the past, bread has been an important substitute for maize, but the ever increasing prices have pushed it beyond reach of most poor households in Zimbabwe. A loaf of bread on average now costs ZW$ 25,000. Shortages of domestic wheat have made bakers use more expensive imported flour, increasing the price of bread relative to other foods. Most households are consuming sweet potatoes now in season as a substitute for bread.

Wages and salaries have failed to maintain pace with the ever increasing cost of living, and despite the quarterly reviews of wages, the minimum wage in the commercial after a 630 percent increase in April can only cover 16 percent of the expenditure basket monitored by CCZ. This decline in food access has forced urban households to further reduce the quantity and quality of food they consume.

Response options to food insecurity in the 2007/08 consumption year

The CFSAM estimated slightly higher production than initially anticipated by the Ministry of Agriculture and attributes this upward revision to improved rains in the last part of the 2006/07 season, which benefited crops through the final maturity stages. This production estimate was based on planted area of 2,076.00 ha for all cereals; the largest area in the last five years, with maize planted under 1,626,000 ha, though 5 percent less than the area planted in 2005/06. However, due to the drought and other factors, such as access to inputs, yields – especially for maize – were much lower than in previous years. Maize yields were just less than half a ton per hectare, just 57 percent of yields attained in 2005/06.

Table 1. Cereal supply/demand balance, April 2007/March 2008 (‘000 MT)

Source: CFSAM

The CFSAM acknowledged the need for immediate assistance and response options to address the food access problems Zimbabweans will face in the 2007/08 consumption year. Areas in the traditionally cereal deficit provinces were identified as in critical need. These include Matabeleland provinces, southern Manicaland (covering Chimanimani, Buhera and Mutare districts) and Muzarabani district in Mashonaland Central. This analysis is consistent with FEWS NET’s monthly monitoring of food security, which has also identified some of these areas mainly in the southern part of the country as having cereal availability and access problems. Chimanimani district in Manicaland province recorded the highest maize grain selling price of ZW$ 200,000/17.5kg in June 2007.

Figure 2. Total maize imports compared with estimated maize gap FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source CSO, GMB, WFP and C-SAFE

Based on the CFSAM balance sheet, humanitarian agencies, including World Food Programme and C-SAFE, and the donor community need to draw up strategies to cover the gap of 350,000 MT, assuming commercial imports of 217,000 MT of wheat by the government and private sector. This figure is in anticipation that the earlier government plans of importing 400,000 MT from Malawi will materialize. To date the government has managed to import close to 70,000 MT of the Malawi contract. However contingency plans have to be in place in the event that the government fails to move this grain in time. Even if the government manages to have the grain in country, distribution mechanisms have to be strengthened. The GMB will continue to face serious transport problems and fuel shortages that will constrain its ability to distribute maize effectively