Production shortfalls and the resultant decline in household income from the sales of these crops will contribute to an earlier than usual start to the lean period in food insecure areas of Senegal and will lead to a deterioration of household food security conditions in these areas. Depletion of household food stocks, low levels of food reserves and steadily rising grain prices will further heighten household vulnerability to food insecurity as preparations for the upcoming growing season begin.

Pastoralists face increased difficulties feeding and watering their livestock, with the steady deterioration of pasturelands and the drying up of watering holes.

Timeline of major events

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Food security conditions

The deterioration of household food security that began this month is attributable to the low level or absence of family food security reserves as a result of production shortfalls for the 2006/07 growing season, the consumption and/or sale of harvested crops, the steady rise in food prices and shrinking incomes. In addition to their limited access to consumer goods, agricultural households are faced with the added burden of land preparation costs, at a time when most of the village workforce remains elsewhere to earn extra income.

In the wake of last season’s production shortfalls, household food security in at-risk areas in the Matam, Louga, Diourbel and Kaolack regions is deteriorating with this year’s lean period beginning earlier than usual. Food security in agricultural areas in the southern part of the country is acceptable for the time being, though pockets of food insecurity persist.

Vulnerable households in food insecure areas are using various limited coping strategies to manage household needs in the face of production shortfalls. These include food-based strategies (reducing the quality and quantity of meals, eating seeds, etc.) and non-food strategies (selling of productive assets, borrowing from family and friends, destocking of livestock and out-migration in search of labor opportunities). However, households in these areas have not yet resorted to coping strategies that are indicative of extreme food insecurity, such as begging for food or skipping entire days of meals.

Market conditions

Market grain supplies are increasingly tight with the depletion of trader inventories and family grain reserves. “Bana-Banas” (traders) face increasing difficulty building up large inventories and stock-building activities on weekly farmers’ markets are contingent upon the progress of grain threshing operations by farmers in production zones.

Average retail prices for grain crops rose between March and April in all parts of the country. Millet prices on urban markets range from 150 CFAF/kg in Kaolack to 191 CFAF/kg in Dakar (Figure 1).

Markets in the Diourbel region are reporting the largest increases in millet prices, with increases of 18 CFAF/kg in Bambey and 16 CFAF/kg in Diourbel.

The largest price differentials compared with April of last year and the 2001 to 2005 average are found in the central part of the country (in the Kaolack, Fatick, Diourbel and Thiès regions) and in Dakar. The Fatick market reported the steepest increase in millet prices, which jumped from 135 to 175 CFAF/kg, a 29 percent increase compared to last year at this time.

The same upward trend in prices from March to April is visible on rural markets (Figure 2) due to increasingly tight supplies and low trader inventories and family grain reserves. Millet prices on rural markets range from 135 CFAF/kg in Porokhane (in the Kaolack region) to 225 CFAF/kg in Ourossogui (in the Matam region). The price of millet in Bambey went from 137 to 155 CFAF/kg.

Trends in food balance sheets for 2001 through 2005

The grain balance sheet, based solely on grain availability (production and imports), is used as an analytical tool for assessing food availability in Sahelian countries. However, non-grain products also play an extremely important role in establishing the food security status of different populations. Thus, it is imperative to consider the availability of all types of food to understand this aspect of the food security of different population groups. To this end, the Analysis, Prevention and Statistics Department (DAPS) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security studied the country’s food balance sheets for the period from 2001 to 2005.

The food balance sheet provides a complete picture of food availability and illustrates the sources of supply and usage of each food product. Total food availability includes all foodstuffs produced at the country level, plus imports, adjusted for any changes in inventory levels during the reference period. Usage is broken down by the quantities of foodstuffs exported, used as animal feed and seeds, processed for food and non-food uses, lost during transport and storage and earmarked for human consumption.

The study findings show trends in national food availability and the degree of satisfaction of nutritional requirements. The usefulness of food balance sheets in assessing and confirming a country’s food and agriculture situation is apparent when it comes to comparing and standardizing the different types of data produced by different sectors of the national economy. For example, comparison of food availability and the volume of imports illustrates the country’s import dependency ratio. The country’s self-sufficiency ratio is equivalent to the quantity of locally grown foodstuffs compared with total food availability.

Data on per capita food availability is important in evaluating food supply and demand. The average food energy value, according to the food balance sheet, can be used to estimate the average food consumption value. Moreover, the minimum threshold value for national nutritional requirements can be used as basis for assessing the nutritional state of the country’s population. In addition, analysis of these food balance sheets has identified important areas where information is not available (i.e. byproducts such as millet, sorghum and corn meal, groundnut oil, processed fish products, etc.) and illustrates where efforts can be made to improve the national statistics system.

According to food balance sheet data, national energy availability per person per day in Senegal was 2230 calories in 2001 and 2002, rising sharply to 2366 calories in 2005 with the steep increase in rice and corn production and the consumption of larger quantities of these higher calorie foods.

On average, grains alone accounted for the largest caloric intake (1400 calories) between 2001 and 2005, due mainly to the consumption of rice (719 calories), which is the mainstay of the Senegalese diet. Vegetable oils, sweeteners and oil seeds provided 719, 125 and 78 calories per person per day, respectively. In contrast, fruits, eggs and vegetables accounted for very little caloric intake, a mere 17, 7 and 38 calories per person per day, respectively, possibly due to their limited availability and accessibility.

A study of trends over the past five years shows that Senegal is increasingly dependent on imports. Senegal routinely imports a number of food products, either to supplement national production or because these products are not locally available. Moreover, according to balance sheet data, the country’s self-sufficiency in terms of food production for human consumption has steadily declined. According to a trend analysis, any increase in imports was paralleled by a proportional reduction in the country’s food production. In general, approximately 60 percent of domestic food availability is from local production, with imports accounting for the remaining 40 percent.