FEWS NET Monthly Report for S. Sudan covering the period Aug 2006 to Sep 2006.

SOUTHERN SUDAN FOOD SECURITY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2006

ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY

With inputs from SC-UK, Concern, WVI, Tear Fund and PACT

Summary and implications

Consumption of early maturing crops and the September-October harvest marked the end of the May-August hunger season.  The severity of the hunger season was reduced through the combined effects of improved access to markets, availability of low-cost sorghum subsidized by the Government of Southern Sudan, timely food aid distributions, improved availability of seasonal agricultural employment following the expansion of land under cultivation by large-scale farmers, and earlier than normal crop harvests in selected areas.  While preliminary reports suggest a mixed performance of this season, the 2006 Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) and Annual Needs and Livelihood Assessment (ANLA) should establish a more conclusive food security picture.  Areas of concern include Warrap and Lakes states, which have been affected by inter-ethnic conflict and below normal rains in June (especially in highland areas of Northern Bahr El Ghazal State), as well as eastern Jonglei State where consequences of conflict and flooding of crops during August may reduce the October harvest. 

The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (COF) projected near normal to above normal rainfall for the southeastern sector of Southern Sudan and near normal to below normal for the rest of Southern Sudan for September through December 2006.  If this forecast proves accurate, the implications are that pasture, water and vegetation conditions will improve in the Arid Zone, and the second cropping season in the Hills and Mountain Zone will likely be successful. 

Seasonal timeline

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Critical factors to monitor from October to December 2006: 
1.  The June-Nov crop harvest through the ANLA and CFSAM
3.  Livestock, pasture and water conditions
4.  Impact of flood levels and impact of water based food sources
5.  Population returns
6.  Nutritional status
8.  Planning for 2007 based on annual needs assessment findings

Agricultural seasons in Southern Sudan

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Agricultural seasons:
1. April-July and September-December: Two agricultural seasons
2. Pastoral ? Limited single-season areas
3. June-September ? One agricultural season
4. June-November ? One agricultural season
5. Mixed seasons ? Areas with two seasons in highlands and one season in lowlands

Current hazard summary

• The disarmament of households in eastern Jonglei State may inadvertently increase the risk of attacks and cattle raiding by armed attackers from Pibor County.
• Interethnic conflict, especially in the western half of Southern Sudan, continues to constrain civil and food insecurity.
• Reports of mixed crop conditions and incidents of flooding suggest that food insecurity is likely in select areas over the coming consumption year.
• Return of displaced populations from northern to southern Sudan will likely resume in the next one to two months, with food security consequences for host communities.

Food security summary

The May-August hunger season concluded throughout Southern Sudan with the onset of green consumption in August-September and the incoming harvest.  In both the Western and Eastern Flood Plains Livelihood Zones, households are relying on sorghum and maize supplemented by milk and wild vegetables, which will sustain them until the end of 2006.  In the Western Flood Plains, households located further south in Lakes State are relying on fewer quantities of early crops as they await the main harvest of long term sorghum, due in November and December.  In the Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone, crops are being supplemented by fish, milk, wild plants and purchased sorghum.  Meanwhile, first season crops continue to sustain households in the Hills and Mountains Zone and the Greenbelt Zone.  Here, food security will remain stable until the second season harvest takes place in around December-January.  Short cycle crops are also being consumed in the Ironstone Plateau Zone as households wait for long cycle sorghum after November.  Though the current food access situation in the Arid Zone is not clear, livestock products such as milk, ghee and meat are expected to constitute the bulk of the diet supplemented by grain from trade or exchange.

Rainfall: June-August rainfall and September ? December rainfall forecast

Cumulative rainfall performance from June through August was mostly normal in the western half of Southern Sudan.  However, in the eastern sector, rainfall was much heavier than last year, and there was localized flooding in some areas. 

The Climate Outlook Forum (COF) for the Greater Horn of Africa, held in Nairobi at the end of August, forecasted near normal to above normal rainfall for the southeastern sector of Southern Sudan, and near normal to below normal for the rest of Southern Sudan from September through December.  If this forecast proves accurate, the implications are that pasture, water and vegetation conditions will improve in the Arid Zone, and the second cropping season in the Hills and Mountain Zone is likely to be successful.  Although these forecasts are more relevant for areas with a second cropping season (September-December), they are also relevant to the June-November cropping areas and all pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. 

Figure 1: September-December Rainfall Forecast
 
Source: ICPAC

Food security updates by livelihood zone

Western Flood Plains Zone

The maturation of short-term crops in the June-September and June-November crop growing areas brought an end to the hunger season.  Crops being consumed include maize, sorghum, pumpkins, sesame and some groundnuts.  Reports from this zone suggest that recent payment of government workers (especially soldiers) contributed to a generalized increase in prices.  Updates of crop performance in various counties in this zone are provided below.

In Aweil North and West Counties, rains started as early as April and peaked in July, providing farmers with an opportunity to replant crops in highland areas that had been affected by a dry spell in June.  Rains improved in July allowing planting of groundnuts.  Sorghum planted in the lowlands was not affected by the dry spell.  Rains remained normal during August and September, and increased river and flood levels, as is typical at this time.  Overall, crop performance is reportedly much better in the lowlands than in highlands.  Similar conditions are reported in Aweil Centre County; high water levels are reducing fish catches.  

Crop performance is reported to be normal in Aweil South, where sorghum, maize and sesame are being harvested while millet is flowering.

As of July-August, good crop performance was reported in areas further south such as Rumbek, Cuibet, Yirol and Awerial.  Short term crops (maize, sorghum, sesame, cowpeas, green grams and groundnuts) are now being consumed.  Long maturing sorghum is reportedly doing well.  However, there are indications of poor groundnut performance in some areas.  The latest field reports suggest that prices of goods, especially livestock, have increased due to recent salary payments to government workers, especially soldiers, most of whom are now buying livestock.

Meanwhile, a new disarmament campaign aims to reduce recurrent inter-ethnic conflict in the four counties.  A curfew has been introduced to facilitate disarmament.  The latest conflict resulted in the death of a community leader chief in Rumbek last month.  This latest wave of insecurity has restricted movement and is reported to have contributed to a shortage of labor. 
    
A similar conflict has displaced up to 45,000 people further north in Gogrial and Tonj counties of Warrap State. 

Eastern Flood Plains Zone

Reports from this zone tentatively suggest mixed agricultural conditions due to a combination of factors, including insecurity triggered by disarmament programs (thereby disrupting dry season and cultivation season activities) and flooding. 

Floods temporarily disrupted households in parts of this zone, especially in Pagak and Maiwut areas (located in former Latjor State, now part of Upper Nile State) during late August and early September.  The floods occurred when the main river serving the area overflowed its banks following excessive rains in neighboring Ethiopia.  The floods forced some households to temporarily relocate to drier areas, and subsided within one week. 

In July and August, heavy rains led to similar conditions further south in Wuror, Nyirol and Akobo counties in Jonglei State.  Though this did not displace households, it caused water logging and crop damage on farms in lowland areas.  Despite a lack of recent updates on current crop performance, reduced harvests are expected in the affected areas.
 
Of greatest concern is the likely negative impact of disarmament conducted in eastern Jonglei State earlier this year.  The disarmament sparked conflict and disrupted cultivation, though the impact has not been conclusively established.  Currently, the affected community is voicing concerns about increased vulnerability to attacks and cattle raiding by their armed neighbors and traditional enemies, the Murle tribe of Pibor County to the south.  Insecurity caused by frequent cattle raiding is the biggest threat to livelihood stability in this zone.  Though disarmament is a good starting point to the restoration of peace, it needs to be conducted simultaneously in areas that have historically linked hostilities. 

Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone

The most important event in this zone in September was the onset of flooding.  There have also been pockets of insecurity.  Insecurity has persisted in the north of this zone (Zeraf Island) for the last two months.  Insecurity also extended to the neighboring Shilluk Kingdom where fishing activities reduced fish catches and elevated prices.  Generally, rainfall performance has been mixed, better around Malakal and Kodok areas but erratic in others such as Tonga and Aburoc.  Currently, quick maturing maize is being consumed, and other crops will be ready in several weeks.  Reports indicate that flooding started as expected in September. 

Market and food supply conditions are reported to be fair.  Sorghum is still available, because it is being brought in by traders from northern areas of Kosti, Renk, and Southern Kordofan by barge and tractors. 

Further south in Bor, floods in mid-September temporarily disrupted household activities and displaced some households.  Though there is controversy over what caused the floods, past experience has shown that floods occurring around September are often not destructive and are associated with breaking of dykes or community managed/maintained water barriers.  The most damaging floods are those that occur in July before crops mature; these are often caused by raised river levels compounded by high rainfall.

As in the southern Western Flood Plains Zone, there are reports of increased prices following recent payment of salaries to soldiers.  The likely future impact of these payments on prices is unknown as these payments are being implemented on a large scale for the first time. 

Hills and Mountains Zone

Here, most households are relying on the first season crop harvest that has just ended.  The second planting season will run from September to the end of 2006. 

Households continue to consume the newly harvested first season crops of maize, early sorghum, groundnuts, sesame and cow peas, which should last them until the second season harvest due in December-January. 

Meanwhile, peace talks between Uganda's Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and Ugandan Government continue in Juba, southern Sudan.  Accusations undermine the peace process, with the Government of Uganda accusing the LRA of failing to gather in Southern Sudan as agreed under the August truce, and the LRA accusing the Government army of planning an attack.  The first round of peace talks between the Government of Uganda and the LRA on cessation of hostilities and reconciliation were held in Juba in July.  These were followed by a ceasefire declaration by the LRA and the Ugandan Government in August to enable continuation of peace talks aimed at ending their 20-year conflict.

LRA attacks have persistently disrupted livelihoods activities in this zone, by curtailing access to lucrative northern Ugandan markets.  Cultivation in some of the fertile agricultural areas has been neglected, and insecurity has hampered humanitarian agency operations. 

Greenbelt Zone

Traditionally, this major surplus crop producing area has had the potential to supply neighboring Western Flood Plains Zone and parts of the Hills and Mountains and Ironstone Plateau Zones. 
 
Similar to the Hills and Mountain Zone, the second planting has entered its second month.  The first cropping season ended around August.  Though the performance of harvest has not been established, WVI reports indicate good crop performance, especially of groundnuts in Yambio, Ezo and Tambura counties.  NPA had similar reports on Kajokeji, Yei and Lainya counties.

Ironstone Plateau Zone

Reports from this zone are insufficient to describe conclusively the current food security situation.  However, below is a brief update on south of the zone.  Updates from OXFAM-GB in Mundri County suggest increasing tension in Mvolo as a result of a livelihood conflict that took place early this year between agriculturalists (Jur tribe) and agro pastoralists (Dinka tribe).  The tension is rising due to increased presence of cattle belonging to the agro pastoral community.  This is the same dynamic that caused conflict earlier this year, and thus requires close monitoring.

Meanwhile, food prices (particularly of sorghum) have reportedly declined following the harvest.  Consumption of green crops started in August and September.  In addition, sorghum from neighboring crop surplus areas of Maridi and Yambio is now available in local markets, suggesting improved market conditions.  Trade between Mundri/Mvolo and The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has reportedly increased, facilitated by the use of motorbikes.

Arid Pastoral Zone

There are indications of onset of vegetation dryness in some parts of this zone, heralding the start of livestock movement to dry season pasture and water areas anytime between now and December.  However, if the September-December forecasts of above normal rainfall in this zone are correct, pasture and water conditions may improve, thus temporarily delaying dry season livestock movement.  Stability and food security in this region very much depend on access to grazing or pastures in other zones, predominantly in the Hills and Mountains Zone (Budi County), and the dynamics of numerous peace agreements among the different pastoral groups.  However, access is often constrained by cattle raiding practices among the different groups.  When hostilities increase and access becomes constrained, households in this zone are most at risk because their environment does not harbor sufficient grazing and water grounds.  This underscores that relationships with neighbors are paramount to their survival. 

Currently, peace between the Toposa (who reside in the most arid areas) and neighbors residing in greener areas (Didinga and Buya) of Budi County appears favorable, following ongoing peace building initiatives facilitated by the Government of Southern Sudan and PACT.  The latest of a series of ongoing peace initiatives was held in August to follow up on violations of the peace agreement signed in April 2005 by Toposa and Didinga as well as address escalation of tensions in cattle rustling affected areas. 

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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