FEWS NET Monthly Report for Djibouti covering the period Sep 2006 to Oct 2006.

DJIBOUTI Food Security Update October 2006

ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY

 

Summary and implications

Across the pastoral livelihood zones, the recent Karan/Karma rains replenished browse, enabled use of short distance water points and diminished the need for migration of livestock towards the coastal plains this season.  With regard to planning of humanitarian interventions, the principal concern is whether the existing natural resources (pasture, browse and water) will sustain herds during the long dry spell extending through March 2007.  The food security situation of the coastal areas depends on the performance of the coming Heys/Dada season, for which forecasts predict near to above normal rains.  Stimulated by urban demand, the intensification of firewood and charcoal production has increased the income of poor households in all pastoral areas, compounding a trend of environmental degradation sufficiently concerning to warrant national attention and a multi-faceted response.  The current cost of the monitored minimum expenditure basket puts essential food and non-food items out of the reach of poor urban households.  A severe water shortage has hit certain parts of the city, particularly Balbala and PK12, which normally depend on water tankers. 

Seasonal timeline

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Current hazard summary

• The limited market supplies and high prices of kerosene are affecting the quality of life and food security of middle-income and poor households in urban areas; the use of firewood and charcoal as an alternative source of energy for cooking has increased, to the detriment of the environment.
• Peak mosquito propagation in October will increase the incidence of malaria.  
• The performance of the Heys/Dada rains will influence the food and livelihood security of poor pastoral households in the coastal belt of Djibouti.

Food security summary

The good performance of the 2006 Karan/Karma rains ensured browse, pasture and water availability for the upcoming October to March dry period in inland areas.  Shorter migration distances are required for water, and animal body conditions are satisfactory.  Goat milk production will decline in October the animals go into heat before they reproduce.  Camels, meanwhile, are expected to give birth in November, increasing the production of camel milk, the main source of income for the Southeast Roadside Sub-Zone. 

Reports indicate large numbers of animals in the south are migrating towards the two Baras, with some remaining in the main winter grazing areas around Geustir, Hemed, Ali-adde, Assamo and further southeast near Lac Abe.  Those in the north are in the flood plains of Dohda, Andaba, Daguero and in the central highland plateaus.  The IGAD Climate Outlook Forum reported a favorable forecast for the coastal plains of Djibouti for the coming season.  The approaching Heys/Dada season, expected to start in late October, will likely be near normal to above normal.  This will further replenish the browse, pasture and water in Heys/Dada dependent grazing areas. 

The intensification of charcoal production in all rural livelihood zones is fueled by urban demand, as urban poor consumers switch from kerosene to cheaper fuel sources.  District authorities, concerned about accelerated environmental degradation, and are currently implementing legal measures to control its production to curtail overexploitation of limited natural resources, although longer term development strategies are required.  Urban households continue to struggle with high prices of staple foods and shortages of kerosene, and urban middle class households must often stand in long lines to purchase a liter of kerosene.  This shortage is mainly attributed to a recent government measure (i.e., creation of a single private company for distribution of kerosene) undertaken to minimize price speculation.  However, inefficiencies are alleged, and certain groups are reportedly diverting supplies at high retail prices. 

Natural resource situation (rainfall, water and pasture)

Following good rains in August, the western half of the country mostly received normal to above normal rains in September.  Field reports suggest that the rains were heavier in parts of Alsabieh, Dikhil and Arta districts.  Rains reached 200-300 mm in the central highland zone of Mountain Day and Godda Plateau down to the coastal plains of Tadjourah.  As a result, most of the water catchments on the flood plains of Dorra zone were replenished.  Some floods were also observed in Wea and Ambouli dry creeks.  The rains replenished the water aquifer level, and the water table has improved significantly due to the high infiltration rate.  Overall the performance of the Karan/Karma rains was adequate in distribution and intensity compared to the short term (five year) average.  The satellite images in Figures 1 and 2 indicate that cumulative rainfall this season was higher than in 2005.  As the inland countryside enters the prolonged five month dry spell (October to February, see seasonal timeline), pasture, browse and water resources are expected to be sufficient until next rainy season which is expected to start in March 2007.  The Heys/Dada rains are expected to start this month, mainly in the coastal areas. 

Rainfall performance during July?September (Karan/Karma season) compared to normal (1996?2003)

Source: FEWS NET/USGS; Note: All boundaries are unofficial and approximate

During the last two months, water shortages have affected around 3,000 households who usually depend on water tankering in the suburbs of the capital city of Djibouti, particularly the poor quarters in Balbala, such as Hayabley, PK12, Layablay, Waraabalay and Ga'an ma'an.  This shortage is mainly due to the diversion of the water destined for human consumption to the construction sector and lack of sufficient water tankers.  Since last month, Dikhil Ville has also experienced water shortages due to the breakdown of the well supplying the city.  Water tankers are currently assisting the community in water provision.

Browse is abundant in the Southeast Pastoral Livelihood Zone, and the area near Ali-Sabieh is greener than the rest of the country.  The Northwest Pastoral Zone has limited browse due to irregular temporal distribution of the rains, and animals (particularly cattle) have concentrated in Dohda Valley where grazing is available.  Reports indicate that livestock may not follow normal migration patterns to coastal areas this season because there is adequate pasture, browse and water inland.  The Central Pastoral Livelihood Zones have enough pasture and browse to sustain herds over the coming season.  Livestock in this area are currently in high plateaus.

Urban food and livelihood security

Key indicators at a glance

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Key Indicators Explained In the city, most necessities are purchased, and thus the key indicators to monitor are those linked to expenditure and to income.  The main sources of income for poor households are casual labor, petty trade, low-wage formal employment and pensions.

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Source: DISED/FEWS NET Notes: Figure 3 shows trends in the cost of staple foods, other foods and non-food items per FD per household per month

The cost of the total expenditure basket fell 3 percent this month.  This decrease is mainly attributed to the decline in prices of both staple and other foods (by 8 percent and 1 percent, respectively).  Prices for the following staple food items fell this month: sorghum (25 percent), cooking oil (8 percent) and beans (24 percent).  The drop in the price of sorghum is mainly due to Ramadan, when almost all households are fasting and consumption of sorghum is limited.  Prices also fell for milk powder (7 percent) and tea (5 percent).  However meat prices continued to increase, rising another 7 percent this month, as exports to Gulf countries continued to deplete the supply of livestock on local markets. 

Kerosene prices have again shot up by 7 percent, with a liter priced at around 180 DF.  The Government of Djibouti established a single company to distribute kerosene at controlled prices directly to consumers.  This system is not yet fully operational, and a shortage of kerosene is observed in the poor quarters of the city.  There is evidence that the poor households as well as the majority of middle households are currently using charcoal as an alternate source of energy for cooking.  As a consequence the price of charcoal increased from 700 to 1000 DF.  Even though the total basket cost has decreased this month (Figure 3), it is still outside the limit of affordability of poor households.  The school kits distributed by USAID in collaboration with UNICEF have partially eased the burden of poor households as far as school related expenses are concerned. 

The propagation of mosquitoes started in the open ditch latrines in the suburbs of Djibouti.  Peak propagation is expected to start in October (see seasonal timeline), and malaria prevention interventions (e.g., insecticide treated bed nets) are recommended. 

Market prices

For a third consecutive month, high prices of small ruminants ensured that terms of trade favor pastoralists.  The trend is explained in part by reduced supply of livestock on domestic markets, combined with increased demand for livestock in the region (as concerns about avian influenza have triggered changes in consumption patterns from poultry to livestock).  Figure 4 illustrates price trends for small ruminants in the main Djibouti market (Balbala) since the beginning of 2006.  The onset of the main rainy season signaled a sustained increase in livestock prices at Balbala.  The price of sheep rose since last month, while the price of goats remained steady.  A kilogram of meat costs 700DF on average. 

Figure 4: Trend in livestock (small stock) prices in Balbala market

Figure 5 illustrates that the price of sorghum in Borama market has dropped by 13 percent, while it remained constant in Djibouti reference markets over the last month.  During Ramadan, decreased consumption of sorghum-based bread may account for reduced demand for sorghum. 

Figure 5: Sorghum prices in Djibouti and neighboring Borama (Somaliland) market supplying Djibouti
 
Source: FSAU, Graphics FEWS NET Djibouti

The cereal flow from Somaliland is satisfactory, but Ethiopia, normally Djibouti's major cereal supplier, has banned cereal exports. Ethiopian efforts to eliminate informal grain trade have sharply reduced informal cross-border grain flows to Djibouti.  Because informal grain trade is normally practiced by women, it is anticipated that reduction in informal trade will disproportionately affect the incomes of women and female-headed households. 

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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