Executive summary

Figure 1: Current estimated food security conditions (March 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2: Most-likely scenario: Estimated food security conditions (July 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3: Worst-case scenario: Estimated food security conditions (July 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• Above-average season A harvests that ended in January have increased food availability, and households are generally food secure throughout Rwanda. However, localized food insecurity remains in Bugesera, where season A bean production was poor, and in chronically food insecure food economy zones. High food prices restrict poor households’ food access.

• From March to July, food security is expected to remain stable. Good March to May rains will enable a good harvest from May to July that will increase household food access. However, household food security will decrease before the harvest in April and May as household stocks are depleted. Between 250,000 and 350,000 people will be food insecure, but the WFP pipeline is sufficient to meet their food needs.

• In the worst-case scenario, poor March to May rains will lead to a below-average harvest starting in May. The hunger period between seasons will increase, and households will face decreased food access and income. About 1.3 million people will need assistance, and 300,000 people will likely need direct emergency food aid.

Current food security situation

Season 2007A harvests ended in January, and national food crop production is estimated at 899,000 MT of cereals-equivalent. This level of production is above average and has increased food availability throughout Rwanda. As the country’s agriculture is mainly subsistence-based and smallholder farmers comprise 91 percent of the population, food needs are primarily met by household production, and the above-average production has led to good household food security (see Figure 1).

However, localized food insecurity remains in Bugesera, where bean production was poor this last season, and in the Congo-Nile Ridge and the Southern Plateau food economy zones, where high population densities and poor soil fertility make the region chronically food insecure. Additionally, food prices have been above average this year, restricting household food access, especially for poor households with limited access to land and those who depend on casual labor for income. These include the poorest households among the most food-insecure livelihoods, specifically agriculturalists who depend almost exclusively on agriculture for their livelihood but have limited access to land, and agro-laborers whose income from daily labor constitutes about 61 percent of their income. The two groups comprise 39 and 20 percent of the total population respectively. Food insecure agriculturalists are mainly found in the Lake Shores (22 percent of total population) and the Crete of the Nile (21 percent) food economy zones, and food insecure agro-laborers are mainly found in Bugesera food economy zone (20 percent) (CFSVA 2006). About 300,000 people are currently receiving assistance in response to their food insecurity.

Most-likely food security scenario

From March to July, food security conditions are expected to remain stable. Good March to May rains are expected, which will lead to a good season B harvest beginning in May. Also, a sufficient amount of food will be imported.

Forecasts from the 19th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 19) held in Nairobi, Kenya, on March 5 to 07, 2007 and the Rwanda Meteorological Services indicate that there is an increased likelihood of near-normal to above-normal rainfall over much of Rwanda from March to May (with only a 20 percent probability of below-normal rains), while in the northern zone there is an increased likelihood of near-normal to below-normal rainfall (with a 35 percent likelihood of below-normal rainfall). This likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall over much of the country will enable season B planting activities to continue, and the harvest will begin on time in May, especially for beans. Households will then have access to own-produced food and will avoid a significant hunger period between the A and B seasons. However, in the chronically food insecure Congo-Nile Ridge and the Southern Plateau food economy zones, the poorest households, specifically agriculturalists who depend almost exclusively on agriculture for their livelihood but have limited access to land, will remain food insecure in July as they will not be able to produce enough to meet household needs. Food security will also decrease in Nyagatare District, a drought-prone area in the north forecast to receive near to below-normal rainfall, as a result of low agricultural and livestock production.

Before the harvests begin in May, however, food imports will be necessary. Although the 2007A harvests were above average and increased current food security, the amount produced represents a 17 percent production deficit equivalent, and Rwanda needs to import approximately 152,000 MT of cereals-equivalent to cover food needs through June. However, imports will not benefit the rural food insecure populations, as even if they are available, agriculturalists and agro-laborers do not have the ability to access food from the market because of their limited resources and the high current food prices. For these poorest households, food security will deteriorate following the depletion of food stocks in April and May before the next harvests in May-July. The effectiveness of existing coping mechanisms (food for work activities, school feeding and assistance to HIV/AIDS-affected households) will increase the ability of the most vulnerable households to acquire food to overcome deficits in their own production.

The number of food insecure people under this scenario is estimated at 250,000 to 350,000 (50 to 70,000 households), comparable to the current number of people facing food insecurity. Through July 2007, the WFP food assistance requirements to meet needs are estimated at 13,045 MT for all commodities. For the period, the WFP pipeline has a surplus of 6,883 MT, which will allow WFP to implement its assistance program in full. Planned beneficiaries are estimated at 294,000 persons under the Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO), 270,000 under the School Feeding program, and 29,000 under the Assistance to HIV/AIDS Affected Households.

Worst-case food security scenario

In the worst-case food security scenario, food insecurity will increase in most of Rwanda as a result of poor season B crop production from poor rains from March to May.

If the GHACOF 19 predictions prove incorrect, the below-average rainfall will lead to poor crop production and reduced pasture and water availability in agro-pastoral zones. Drought was identified by the Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment (CFSVA) in 2006 as the main shock to food security: drought was systematically associated with a decrease in the ability to have enough food to eat (95 percent of households reported that shock as their main problem), a decrease of income (reported by 96 percent of households) and a decrease in or loss of assets (reported as associated with the drought by 63 percent of households).

In this scenario, the food security situation in the coming months will be similar to that prevailing in March/April 2006 during the CFSVA, where 28 percent of the population (about 2 million people) was food insecure, 24 percent (1.7 million) highly vulnerable, 26 percent (1.9 million) moderately vulnerable, and 22 percent (1.6 million) food secure. The most-affected food economy zones will be Bugesera, Eastern Curve and Southern Plateau, where more than 80 percent of the households reported drought as the main shock, followed by the Buganza-Gisaka plateau and the Central Plateau (where 60 to 80 percent of households reported drought as their main shock). The Crete of the Nile and the Lake Shores food economy zones, having the highest percentage of agriculturalists among their population (approximately 50 percent), lack economic opportunities and alternative sources of income for agricultural households, and will also be affected.

The government should make an appeal to partners for food assistance in this scenario, in April to be effective. The number of people requiring assistance will be about 1.3 million (300,000 households) that are most prone to food insecurity, which include agriculturalists with no alternative source of income and agro-laborers whose work opportunities are restricted to on-farm employment. Prioritized response activities should include food-for-work and food-for-asset creation programs to improve community infrastructure, cash-for-work where markets function well and income-generating activities to diversify livelihood strategies. Specific groups that are clearly food insecure and face malnutrition, including refugees, under/malnourished individuals in therapeutic and supplementary feeding programs, poor pregnant women and mothers with children under five, will require free food assistance, and this number will likely be more than 300,000 people.