Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (Jul to Sep) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2. Most-likely estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3. Worst-case estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• Nearly 23,000 poor families are highly food insecure due to losses experienced in the 2006 postrera harvest and the below-normal demand for unskilled labor as a result of irregular rainfall in June and July. Food security is normal in the rest of the country.

• The likely continuation of the rainy season from mid-August throughout the country will enable normal agricultural activities between October and December, and the primera harvest will improve food availability. The income and food access for day-laborer households and subsistence producers will increase, and the number of households facing high food insecurity will be reduced to 6,600.

• In the worst-case food security scenario from October to December, an excess of rainfall, including possible tropical storms and hurricanes, will affect crops, causing a deficit in the demand for unskilled labor for the picking of coffee and sugarcane harvesting and a decrease in food reserves due to losses in the postrera harvest. This would limit food access for the poorer rural households, and nearly 75,000 households may require food assistance.

Current food security conditions, July to September

About 23,000 poor rural households from the dry zones and the large-scale coffee-estate region, especially in Matagalpa Department, continue to face high levels of food insecurity. Their income and food access have diminished due to food shortages caused by losses experienced during the 2006 postrera and the 2007 primera harvests, the resultant increases in the price of food and a decrease in the demand for unskilled labor as a result of reduced agricultural activities. However, food assistance and the distribution of agricultural inputs in these zones are helping some families cope with this situation.

Food security is normal for the rest of the country. Households have increased food access at the end of July with the primera harvest. In the western areas of the country, the soil is being prepared for planting crops for export in July and August, which increases the demand for labor, as well as the land preparation activities for the postrera planting by the end of August.

Rainfall is likely to increase by the second half of August and will reach its maximum by September/October throughout the country, which will enable agricultural activities to resume and increase agricultural employment from August onwards, maintaining the food security situation stable.

Most-likely food security scenario, October to December

Food security conditions are expected to improve from October to December. Forecasted normal rainfall will restart from mid-August when the dry spell ends. This will activate the postrera planting from September to October and sugarcane and coffee agro-exportation activities from October to December. Food availability will be good, due to the primera harvest that came at the end of July and the beginning of August. A rainfall deficit is forecasted from August to October in Bluefields and the north of RAAN, but due to the normal heavy levels of rainfall in the area, the deficit is not expected to have a negative impact on the different postrera crops in these areas.

The good food availability in households and markets will help stabilize staple cereal prices, especially of maize. Food security will remain stable for poor households until the end of December, as they will have employment opportunities from the agricultural activities (postrera planting and agro-export production) which will enable them to generate income to purchase food.

Food access for the 23,000 households facing food insecurity due to losses in the 2006 postrera harvest and rainfall irregularities in June and July will improve with the primera harvest and normal income generation in October and November. They will be able to purchase basic foods for the rest of the year. In this scenario, households facing high levels of food insecurity will be reduced to 6,600.

Worst-case food security scenario, October to December

In the worst-case food security scenario from October to December, an excess of rainfall would increase food insecurity throughout Nicaragua. The hurricane season starts in mid-September, and an active season could result in the occurrence of two or more hurricanes in the country.

The most immediate effects would be agricultural, with damage to the postrera crops and reduced agro-export activities, thereby reducing the demand for agricultural labor. This would decrease the availability of income generation and thus in the ability of households to purchase food, especially for the poorest households. The food shortages would cause a reduction in livelihood security and problems of food access for poor households, such as:

• Absence or reduction of demand for unskilled labor in agro-export production and for the postrera staple cereal planting, including limited hiring of day laborers;
• Increase in the price of staple cereals due to speculation about a bad harvest, which would cause a reduction in the amount of food that households can purchase, particularly affecting the poorest households who are highly dependent on purchased food. These impacts would direct affect household health and nutrition, especially of the vulnerable groups (children and pregnant and lactating women); and,
• Reduction of food reserves due to the postrera losses from mid-December until the primera harvest in July 2008.

An excess of rainfall may also affect livestock, household property, productive assets, market supply of food and physical infrastructure. This would cause a greater impoverishment of households, further limiting the possibility of income generation, which in turn would increase migration to urban areas, especially in El Salvador and Costa Rica.

In response to this situation, government intervention will be required to control prices and utilize food reserves. Food assistance will be required as well for the 75,000 households facing these problems. This assistance will be required until agricultural activities restart, in January 2008 with the apante harvest in the country’s most humid zones (mainly in the Atlantic autonomous region), and in March 2008 in the rest of the country with the primera planting activities.