FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Good market availability and relatively stable prices for major grain crops support food security in Niger. Some households have, however, depleted their own food reserves from the “short” harvests, and with low purchasing power, have no food access.

The preliminary findings by the joint Government of Niger (GoN)/World Food Program (WFP)/FAO/UNICEF/FEWS NET household vulnerability assessment conducted in November 2006 show nearly 30 percent of Niger’s households to be food insecure, of which 9 percent, or 1,100,000 individuals, are classified as severely food insecure. The severity of household food insecurity problems is attributable to large shortfalls in grain production and availability, as well as to poor nourishment and precarious sources of income. At the time of the survey, their harvests covered only three more months worth of food needs – running out in February 2007. Households headed by women or dependent on precarious sources of income such as sales of straw and fuelwood, day labor and craft-making are in the worst situation. These population groups would benefit from targeted relief measures such as food for work and cash for work programs, nutritional rehabilitation programs for malnourished children and regular replenishments of grain bank inventories.

Another factor affecting the food situation is the official launching of the government grain procurement program on January 31 for rebuilding the national food security reserve, whose available inventory is down to 200.1 MT. This is causing prices on grain markets to edge upwards, though any such upward movements in prices are still within normal limits. In general, market prices have begun their normal, seasonal, post-harvest upswing.

On livestock markets shows, most prices are holding steady, with prices beginning to rise on certain markets for certain animal species such as cattle, in some cases, with a positive effect on terms of trade. Right now, there are no reports of any cases of bird flu in Niger, whose authorities have already taken all necessary measures to protect the national poultry supply, including formal bans on trade in poultry and eggs from Nigeria and information activities designed to make the public aware of the importance of keeping their flocks in enclosed areas, protected from wild birds. The news of a human fatality from bird flu in Nigeria could strengthen demand for livestock, driving up prices around the country.

On the whole, conditions in pastoral areas are good, but frequent sand storms are filling temporary lakes and ponds with sand and drying them up, creating animal watering problems. As far as the nutritional situation is concerned, admissions to therapeutic feeding centers are up slightly, but conditions in many parts of the country are still visibly better than in 2005 and 2006.

Timeline of important events and warning signs

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Agropastoral situation

Off-season crop production

Irrigated, off-season crop production is one of several coping strategies developed over the last few years in reaction to a string of poor harvests and in an attempt by certain households to improve and diversify their diet. This year, with the high levels of lakes, ponds and the water table, conditions were conducive to intensifying these farming activities. Harvests of vegetable, tuber and pulse crops are still underway, and large shipments of truck crops are being brought to local markets day after day. Some of these crops are being exported to other regional countries, with watermelons, for example, going to Nigeria, potatoes to Burkina Faso, tomatoes to Benin and onions to Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo and Benin.

Not only are these off-season crops helping to diversify household diets in many parts of the country, but, right now, they are also providing a regular income for farm families, as well as for poor households, by creating jobs tending and harvesting crops. As such, they are an important means of improving household food access in many areas of the country.

Figure 1. Trends in prices for animal feed on the Abalak market FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIMB; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

The government is in the process of drawing up preliminary estimates of off-season crop production for 2006/07 with the assistance of its food security partners.

Conditions in livestock-raising areas

Even with major watering points around the country starting to dry up as water levels recede, which is normal at this time of year, year-round lakes (Maggia, Komadougou and Goulbi) and the Niger River are still providing livestock with a regular supply of water.

The access of pastoral households to essential forage resources for feeding their livestock is bolstered by good pasture availability in many areas and relatively affordable prices for animal feed (figure 1) in general and cotton seed in particular, despite the poor cotton harvest in Nigeria (their main source of supply), which still has large carry-over inventories from the last agropastoral season.

Despite an overall pasture surplus at the country level, pastoral households in parts of the Tahoua and Agadez regions and the central reaches of Tanout department are having a hard time feeding their animals due to mediocre pasture production as a result of last year’s poor rainfall conditions in these areas, combined with the disastrous effects of a new string of sand storms covering pasturelands and filling lakes and ponds with sand. Over the next few months, this could drive down market prices for livestock, turn terms of trade against pastoralists and drive up prices for forage for feeding their animals, resulting in a deterioration in their food security and massive out-migration to farming areas, with the potential to trigger disputes between pastoralists and farmers in lowland crop-growing areas. 

Agropastoral markets

Figure 2. Trends in average millet prices FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger   Figure 3. Trends in the price of bulls FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIMB, SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

Grain markets

In the past month, markets are still getting regular shipments of grain crops and, across the board, average prices for coarse grains have risen, which is normal for this time of year.

Market prices in farming areas (Maradi and Tillabery) are stable, lower than last year and below the five-year average for this time of year.

In contrast, grain prices on markets in pastoral zones with structural production deficits (Agadez and Diffa) are rising and, in general, are higher than last year and above the five-year average for this time of year (figure 2).

Reported hikes in prices are attributable to the smaller quantities of grain sold by farmers and the reliance of households bringing in poor harvests and who have already depleted their grain reserves on local markets. The higher prices in Diffa could be due to ongoing procurements by the National Grain Marketing Board (OPVN) for the replenishment of grain reserves. Any hikes in prices are currently limited to markets in grain-deficit areas. However, this trend is likely to strengthen over the next few months, affecting markets in surplus areas in the south.

Livestock markets

Two months after Tabaski, livestock markets are showing a renewed interest in cattle, which had lost ground to stepped-up sales of sheep during the holiday season. Prices for large animals in general and bulls in particular rose 17 and 8 percent, respectively, between January and February (figure 3) on the Balleyara and Maradi markets (both of which are export markets). On the other hand, market prices in the pastoral zone of N’Guel Kollo in the Diffa region fell by 32,000 CFAF, or 15 percent, between January and February (figure 3). One explanation for this decline is the market’s inaccessibility for major consumption centers (due to its distance and remoteness), as reflected in the limited presence of foreign traders. A review of interannual trends in livestock prices shows this month’s cattle prices at or above last year’s figures and the five-year average for this time of year.

Figure 4. Trends in the price of male goats FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIMB, SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger     Figure 5. Trends in terms of trade for male goats/millet FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIMB, SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

On the whole, prices for small animals in general and male goats in particular are holding steady and, in some cases, coming down on markets in the eastern part of the country (Maradi and N’Guel Kolo), while prices on western markets (Balleyara and Abalak) are climbing (Figure 4). Market prices for male goats in the western part of the country are generally higher than last year and above the 2002-06 average. In contrast, prices in the east are lower than in February of last year and below-average (Figure 4).

In general, the likely cause of the rise in prices for livestock, particularly in the case of cattle, is heavy demand from local consumers and pressure on domestic markets from Nigerian traders.

Terms of trade for livestock/millet on markets in pastoral areas

Trends in terms of trade for livestock/millet vary according to the market in question. Thus, terms of trade for male goats/millet on the N’Guel Kolo market in a remote pastoral area in February of this year show no change from last month, but are lower than last year and below the five-year average (figure 5).

This slight regression in terms of trade from the standpoint of herders in N’Guel Kolo compared with past years is due mainly to falling prices for livestock rather than to a hike in millet prices.

On the other hand, terms of trade for male goats/millet on the busier Abalak market show an improvement over January of this year and compared with last year, but are on par with the five-year average (figure 5).

Food, health and nutritional situation

Grain reserves

As of January 31, 2007, the level of Niger’s national food security reserves was estimated at 200.1 MT, which is extremely low compared with the 110 000 MT combined target figure for physical inventories and procurement funding.

In the next two or three months, miscellaneous expected contributions, procurements and grants should bring inventory levels up to 75,730.1 MT. The government has already officially initiated its procurement program for an initial lot of 17,500 MT and a second lot of 12,500 MT.

Food security and vulnerability of households in areas with structural production deficits

The preliminary findings by the joint GoN/WFP/FAO/UNICEF/FEWS NET household vulnerability assessment conducted last November have just been released. According to the survey data, a total of 3,600,000 individuals (versus 3,871,104 in May of last year), or 30 percent of all households are food insecure, of which 9 percent (1,100,000 individuals) are classified as severely food insecure and 21 percent (2,500,000 individuals) as moderately food insecure.

The departments with the highest proportions of food insecure households are Tillabery (62 percent of local households), Ouallam (55 percent), Tahoua (51 percent), Tanout (50 percent), Loga (50 percent), Keita (48 percent) and Bouza (44 percent) (figure 6). 

Figure 6. Proportion of food-insecure households, by department FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Joint vulnerability assessment; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

The departments with more than 10 percent of local households classified as severely food-insecure are Ouallam (40 percent), Tillabery (35.9 percent), Tahoua (33 percent), Keita (30 percent), Boboye (16 percent), Illéla (16 percent), Loga (15 percent) and Gouré (15 percent).

An examination of the food situation of this group of households since November of last year shows a poor household diet, inadequate food reserves and an erosion in household purchasing power. Shortfalls in grain and pasture production in these areas have whittled down the already scanty food and financial resources of local households living in chronic poverty.

There are localized improvements in conditions in certain areas thanks to off-season crop production, particularly in (southern) Filingué, Boboye, Doutchi, Bouza and Madaoua departments. In contrast, conditions in other areas like northern Ouallam, northern Filingué, Loga, Dakoro, Tanout, N’Guigmi and Mainé Soroa may be deteriorating with rising grain prices and the limited opportunities for growing off-season crops.

Nutritional situation

The slight pick-up in admissions to therapeutic feeding centers this past January continued into February, with a visible deterioration in the nutritional situation in several departments, particularly in the central, northern and eastern reaches of the country (figure 7).

Figure 7. Admissions of malnourished children to treatment centers in February 2007 compared with January 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE

The National Health Information System (SNIS) reported an additional 7,546 malnourished children, including 897 cases of severe malnutrition and eight fatalities, in February of this year. This brings the cumulative number of cases of malnutrition