Floods threaten food security from October to December

Figure 1. Potential extent of flooding in southern Sudan as of October 9. FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Flooding that began in early July has continued into October in parts of southern Sudan, causing crop losses and displacement and increasing the food insecurity of affected populations from October to December 2007. Food security is expected to improve from December 2007 to March 2008, as receding flood waters allow for increased access to fish and water plants, improved grazing conditions for animals and recessional agriculture. Immediate relief assistance, as well as livelihoods support for flood-recession activities, is needed, and assessments are underway to determine the magnitude of these needs.

Localized flooding due to heavy rains and rising river levels in early July affected at least 20,000 people in parts of Unity and Upper Nile states, damaging crops during their early stages of growth. Flooding continued in September and October, spreading to areas such as Northern Bahr El Gazal, where crop harvests had just begun. Low-lying areas near major rivers have been the most affected by floods, especially in Aweil West and Gogrial counties, where rains forced some households to relocate. Fields of groundnuts and sorghum crops have also been flooded. Some sorghum crops may be salvaged, but groundnut crops, which are buried underground, have been lost.

Floods are now estimated to have affected up to 200,000 people, though these estimates remain tentative as not all affected areas have yet been assessed (Figure 1). Ongoing WFP Annual Needs and Livelihoods Assessments and the forthcoming FAO-led Crop Supply Assessment Mission will help better establish the impact of the floods on this year’s crop performance. Though the crop losses and delayed commencement of fishing and other livelihood activities resulting from the floods are likely to increase food insecurity in affected areas between October and December, food security conditions will likely improve between December 2007 and March 2008, as receding flood waters will facilitate above-normal access to fish and water plants, as well as abundant pasture and water, which will improve livestock health and milk production. Residual moisture from the floods may also allow recessional agriculture in some lowland areas.

In addition to providing immediate food and non-food relief assistance, responses should include interventions that reinforce opportunities to improve food security after the floods. For example, improved fishing opportunities will require increased access to fishing equipment such as nets and hooks. In addition, where recessional agriculture is possible, responses that facilitate access to sorghum seeds are essential.

Figure 2. Projected impact of flooding and evolution of food security through mid-2008

FULL-SIZE IMAGE