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Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET, WFP, province and district officials, National Institute of Statistics for map layout

• National food security has improved as season B harvests continue. Despite a late start to the season, rainfall continued until mid-June and has been sufficient for crop development. As a result, a near-normal national harvest is expected. However, the yields of water-sensitive crops such as beans, the main pulse of the season, are likely to be below normal. Seasonal assessment results establishing season B production levels and national food security are expected soon.

• Localized food insecurity persists in the chronically food insecure Congo-Nile Ridge, Lake Kivu Shores and Southern Plateau food economy zones. Additionally, households face moderate to high food insecurity in Bugesera and Nyagatare districts, where low bean production and a livestock quarantine (in Nyagatare) restrict household access to food and income sources.

• Food prices remain above average in Kigali, which reflects below-normal production of cassava, Irish potato and beans. Low levels of own-production and the high prices will limit food access for subsistence-producer households that will have to depend on the market earlier than normal to purchase their food in October.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Current food security situation

National food security has improved as season B harvests have begun. Rainfall, despite having started late in the season, continued until mid-June and has been sufficient for crop development. However, yields of water-sensitive crops such as beans, the main pulse of the season, have decreased due to lower moisture in the southern part of the country and excessive rains in the north. More-detailed assessment results will soon be available from the MINAGRI-led harvest assessment mission conducted from June 11 to 25, 2007.

However, pockets of food insecurity remain (see Figure 1) in the chronically food insecure Congo-Nile Ridge, Lake Kivu Shores and Southern Plateau food economy zones, due to structural factors that result in low production per household such as small infertile plots and limited access to agricultural inputs. Households in parts of Bugesera and Nyagatare districts are also facing moderate food insecurity, as late and erratic season B rains have decreased yields and the amount of land cultivated, although the impact of these production losses won’t be felt for some time (see Food security outlook section below). The quarantine due to an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) and reduced season-B food production make households in the Karangazi Sector of Nyagatare District highly food insecure, as they are not able to sell animals and animal products, which are main sources of income in the area to purchase food and other essentials.

2007 season B harvests prospects favorable despite late rains

Figure 2. Seasonal cumulative rainfall estimates, February to June, 2005 to 2007 (mm) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS / FEWS NET

Figure 3. Cumulative rainfall estimates, February to June 2007, as percentage of long-term average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS / FEWS NET

Seasonal rainfall was near the long-term average. Cumulative rainfall from February 1 to June 30 was 486 mm, or 88 percent of the 559 mm long-term average for the same period (Figure 2). Compared to previous years, cumulative rainfall in season 2007B was 15 percent higher than in 2005B and 8 percent higher than the cumulative rainfall in 2006B. The western part of the country received the least rainfall, with rains between 60 and 70 percent of the average (Figure 3).

Rainfall continued until the second dekad of June, later than normal as rains tapered off in the first dekad of June in 2005 and the third dekad of May in 2006. These continuing rains compensated for a late seasonal start and dry spell that occurred in March and early April.

As a result of the continued rains, seasonal crops were able to reach maturity. Still, yields are likely to be slightly below normal as a result of the March to April dry spell, given that Rwandan agriculture is subsistence-based and primarily rain-fed. Yields are likely to be particularly low in the west, where rainfall was especially below normal, and in Nyagatare and Bugesera districts, where farmers decreased the area cultivated in response to the late start to the rainy season. The specific impacts will be established by the MINAGRI-led harvest assessment mission conducted from June 11 to 25, 2007, the results of which are expected in mid-July.

Food security outlook

As a result of the expected moderately below-normal production, food stocks for poor households will be depleted earlier than in a normal season, and the normal October to December hunger period will be longer. Food access is likely to be particularly restricted for the poor households in the chronically food insecure Congo-Nile Ridge, Lake Kivu Shores and Southern Plateau food economy zones, where high population densities and poor soil fertility result in low agricultural production per household, as well as in parts of Bugesera and Nyagatare districts where late and erratic rainfall has reduced food production.

Households in these areas, especially the poor, depend significantly on their own production for consumption and income (about 34 percent of the food production in Rwanda is sold by farmers, according to the Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation in Rwanda, MINAGRI 2004), and the production losses imply reduced food access. While the severity of the October to November hunger period will be alleviated by the season C harvest in September/October and related income-earning opportunities, not all farmers will benefit, as many do not have access to the marshlands needed for season C production.

Targeted assistance programs, such as WFP’s food-for-work programs to increase arable land and improve community infrastructure, and donor-supported community development projects, such as cash-for-work and income-generating activities to diversify livelihood strategies, should be scaled up during the October to December period. These activities would increase household income and enable improved food access.

Figure 4. Key food prices index on 4 markets in Kigali City, March 2005 to June 2007 (March 2005 = 100) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Note: the price index is an unweighted aggregate calculated from individual prices of sorghum, maize grain, maize flour, rice, beans, cassava flour, sweet and Irish potato and bananas in 4 markets in Kigali City. Source: RATES/FEWS NET

Figure 5. Comparison of key food prices on 4 markets in Kigali City, June 2005, 2006 and 2007 (RwF/kg) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: RATES/FEWS NET

Food markets, prices and trade

In June, prices for most food commodities remained high in Kigali City markets compared to the same period of previous years. The elementary net food price index decreased by 1 percent from May to June 2007 (Figure 4), and prices decreased for all commodities, except for cassava flour which increased by 5 percent and sweet potato by 3 percent. Compared to the same period last year, prices in Kigali markets are on average 11 percent higher, including substantial increases for cassava flour by 43 percent, Irish potato by 20 percent and beans by 18 percent (Figure 5).

The increase in prices of cassava and Irish potato reflect reduced production levels. Cassava production has been strained by a limited availability of cassava planting materials due to Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD). Cassava used to be an important source of food and income in the mid- and low-altitude zones of the country. Despite efforts to introduce CMD-tolerant varieties, the quantity of planting materials is not yet sufficient to sustain production. The high prices for Irish potato are due to low domestic production resulting from lack of quality seed. Irish potato is the main income source in the northwestern part of the country and in the Congo-Nile Ridge food economy zone, and despite the higher prices, producers are earning less income overall because of lower production. A quality seed production scheme formerly operating in the area should rapidly be rehabilitated.

The increase in bean prices at the harvest time also reflects lower production. While bean prices decreased by 9 percent in June 2005 compared to their level in May and by 20 percent in 2006, they only decreased by 3 percent this year from May to June. Lower bean production is significant because beans account for about 20 percent of the protein in a Rwandan’s diet, and the low production is likely to have a negative effect on nutrition as other protein sources, such as animal products, are expensive and not easily accessible to the poor.

The increase in the prices of these staple foods restricts household food access, especially for poor households with limited access to land who depend on casual labor for income and market purchase for food. For example, poor agricultural laborers derive 60 percent of their income from labor (CFSVA 2006) and purchase the majority of their food, making them highly vulnerable to price increases.

Figure 6. Maize imports across the Gatuna border, 2005 to 2007, in MT FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: RATES/FEWS NET

In June 2007, Rwanda imported 7,500 MT of maize through the Gatuna border post with Uganda, consisting of 4,960 MT of grain and 2,540 MT of flour. The level of imports has increased since April 2007 and is significantly higher than the level of imports during the last two years (Figure 6), which indicates that domestic maize production is insufficient to satisfy national demand, as maize consumption has increased in the Rwandan diet. Maize is one of the few commodities whose price decreased from last year and is comparable to 2005 prices (Figure 5). However, maize prices on Kigali markets are primarily determined by imports, and efforts to promote national production should be increased as maize has high nutritional value and can easily replace cassava flour, which is now expensive.

WFP Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) pipeline update

For July 2007 to June 2008, food requirements to meet needs are estimated at 26,373 MT for all commodities (Figure 7). For the period, the WFP pipeline has a deficit of 4,783 MT. The opening balance of cereals plus scheduled arrivals will be enough for all interventions under the PRRO until the end of January 2008. Pledges for additional resources are required now to take into consideration lead times and enable the country office to continue to provide full rations to beneficiaries. However, blended food is in very short supply. Opening stocks are only sufficient for the operation to last through the end of July 2007, after which a pipeline break will occur. Though there is a possibility of loans from within the region, additional resources are urgently needed for the operation to continue providing CSB to beneficiaries, mainly to refugees who rely substantially on the blend for consumption.