Figure 1. Estimated current food security conditions in Mali, third quarter 2007 (July ? September) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Mali

• After two consecutive years of good grain harvests in Mali thanks to good rainfall conditions, grain availability and grain access are stable in all parts of the country.
• Current grain prices are lower than at the same time last year and below average prices for the last five years.
• The visible improvement in meteorological conditions since mid-July has helped keep farming activities going smoothly. Grazing and watering conditions for livestock have also improved.
• There should not be any food security problems in the southern part of the country between now and the upcoming harvest. There are pockets of moderate food insecurity throughout the north, plagued by structural problems, while the northeast is highly food-insecure as a result of civil unrest. With this state of affairs, the country is not expected to face any food shortages requiring outside emergency aid between now and the upcoming harvest season (beginning in October/November).

Seasonal calendar and timeline of major events

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Current food security

Grain production in Mali over the last several years has brought a certain measure of food security to the southern part of the country, while the north and northeast are still categorized as moderately and highly food-insecure, respectively. There are regular, adequate market supplies of grain at affordable prices for consumers, yet high enough to satisfy farmers.

There are lush pastures and good animal watering conditions in pastoral areas of the country. Conditions have visibly improved since July with the definitive onset of the rains. Fattened animals around the country are in satisfactory condition. The increase in milk production is benefiting pastoralists, while livestock prices are in their favor. Animal health conditions are relatively calm. Thus, pastoralists and agropastoralists are enjoying relatively good grain access on local markets.

Grain markets around the country are well stocked. Prices are lower than at the same time last year and running below the five-year average for the same time of year. Price levels are profitable for farmers and, at the same time, affordable for consumers.

The lean period (July through September) is the time of year when grain prices traditionally reach their peak, as supplies dwindle. Despite what, thus far, have been positive movements in prices, right now, all households are managing their grain stores more carefully in anticipation of the upcoming harvest, which is customary at this time of year.

Looking ahead, trends on grain markets between now and the upcoming harvest season are expected to be similar to last year, with normal seasonal hikes in prices between July and September and a seasonal downswing in prices beginning in November or December.

Figure 2. Rainfall totals for the period from May 1 through September 10, 2007, compared with the norm FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Progress of the growing season

After a slow start due to inadequate rainfall, the growing season definitively got underway in mid-July. As of September 10, on the whole, cumulative rainfall totals were normal to above-normal (Figure 2).

According to data compiled by the Department of Agriculture, as of August 31 of this year, 3,913,108 ha of land were planted with crops (this does not include data for the Office du Niger area). The target for this growing season was 4,675,305 ha of crops, which puts the performance rate for this year at 84 percent, compared with a figure of 91 percent for the same time last year. This year?s targets were met only in the case of fonio crops (102 percent). In contrast, last year, only earthpea crops met their target figure, with a performance rate of 108 percent.

The size of the area planted with millet and sorghum is 22 percent larger than last year (2,210,727 has under crops in 2007, compared with 1,815,944 ha in 2006) due to the reassignment of certain areas originally scheduled to be planted in cotton.

In contrast, the size of the area planted with maize is slightly smaller than last year (by approximately 1.5 percent, namely 327,576 ha compared with last year?s figure of 332,532 ha).

As of August 31 of this year, 306,587 ha were planted with cotton, compared with a target figure of 485,600 ha, for a performance rate of 63 percent, versus a 90 percent performance level by the same time last year, with 497,479 ha planted with cotton. The deadline for planting cotton is generally July 20, and this year?s rains did not really begin until the middle of July.

Figure 3. Condition of millet crops as of September 10, 2007, based on the WRSI FULL-SIZE IMAGE FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Figure 4. Condition of pastureland as of September 10 2007, based on the NDVI FULL-SIZE IMAGE FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Figure 5. Pasture conditions as of September 10, 2007, based on the WRSI FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Millet/sorghum crops are in the height growth/early heading stage, corn is in the heading/flowering and early maturation stage, rice is in the tillering stage, cotton plants are in the capsule formation/flowering stage, and groundnut, grain cowpea and fonio crops are in the flowering/seed setting stage.

Crop maintenance activities continue.

On the whole, crop growth and development and the general appearance of fields are good (Figure 3). The torrential rains are causing flooding in many areas around the country.

Plant health conditions are relatively stable thanks to this month?s heavy rains. Grain-eating birds are flocking to traditional breeding grounds in the Mopti and Gao regions.

Canvassing/treatment activities under the desert locust surveillance program in gregarization areas were suspended following the abduction of the crew in charge of the eastern portion of Adrar des Iforas on August 26 by rebels. Environmental conditions are ripe for the locust breeding and survival.

Pastures in the country?s main agropastoral areas are in good condition. The rate of new vegetative growth has accelerated, and there is good pasture availability (Figures 4 and 5). In general, grazing conditions for livestock are good and animals are easily being watered at surface watering holes. Fattened animals are in relatively good shape and animal production levels are improving in all parts of the country.

Sedentary animals are still kept in pens, while migratory animal herds are found in rainy season pasturelands.

Markets

Figure 6. Interannual trends in average millet prices on retail markets in S?gou city (2005 through 2007 and 2002-06 average) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: OMA, FEWS NET/Mali

Business on grain markets around the country is sluggish. Coarse grain prices, which have shown little change over the past few months, are still relatively stable and there are good market supplies of all types of grain crops.

Millet prices on all retail markets in regional capitals around the country with the sole exception of S?gou rose slightly in mid-September, no doubt, due to the influence of Ramadan, a month-long period of fasting. This year, the fast in Mali began on September 13, ushering in a period of heavy millet consumption. Millet markets were feeling the effects of preparations for the month-long fast for some time before it actually began.

In contrast, prices on the S?gou market, in the country?s main millet-producing area, actually fell slightly in mid-September, putting price levels 5 percent below August prices, 16 percent below prices for September of last year and 31 percent below the five-year average (Figure 6).

Figure 6

Average

CFAF/kg

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