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Since the start of the 2007/08 growing season in April, light to moderate rainfall has been unevenly distributed across the country. Nevertheless, the scattered precipitation between April and the second dekad of June, when the rains began in earnest, enabled farmers in certain areas to plant. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Bureau (DSAE), 4,754 of the country’s 10,605 farming villages (45%) had already planted their fields by the second dekad of June of this year, compared with a figure of 51% at the same time last year.

Seasonal cumulative rainfall totals as of June 20 ranged from 35 to 200 mm throughout most of the country’s farm belt and were above last year’s rainfall amounts at half of the monitoring stations tracking the progress of the growing season.

Good grain availability on domestic markets has kept prices stable since March. Current price levels are visibly lower than at the same time last year and well below five-year averages. Looking ahead, market trends for the rest of the year are expected to be comparable to or better than last year, with stable, below-average grain prices.

Livestock prices are stable and beginning to edge upwards on certain markets, due mainly to increasingly heavy demand from the coastal states. Terms of trade for livestock/grain are generally stable, in contrast to the normal downswing in prices for livestock and upswing in grain prices at this time of year. This atypical trend that has maintained favorable terms of trade for pastoralists could be attributable to strong Nigerian demand that is keeping livestock prices high. The absence of any major animal diseases and visibly lower grain prices are also contributing factors.

The steady rise in admissions to therapeutic feeding centers since March continues and could accelerate during the pre-harvest lean period. There has also been an outbreak of meningitis, confined mainly to the Maradi and Tillabery regions.

Conditions in agropastoral areas

Figure 1. Cumulative rainfall totals for the period from the first dekad of April to the second dekad of June of 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: NOAA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

The 2007 “winter” or “wet” growing season is gradually getting underway, with generally poor meteorological conditions (a pattern of light precipitation, with an uneven spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall) causing water stress and planting failures in a number of areas.

Rainfall conditions

Satellite rainfall estimates as of June 20 show good rainy season conditions in the far western reaches of the country, in the Tillabery and Dosso regions, with locally heavy rainfall in Dosso, Say, Gaya and Téra departments (figure 1).

Status of planting activities

According to data furnished by the DSAE, 4,754 of the country’s 10,605 farming villages, or 45 percent, had already planted their fields by the second dekad of June, compared with a figure of 51 percent at the same time last year. This implies a relative lag in planting activities in all parts of the country with the exception of the Zinder region, where the planting rate was 45 percent in June of this year compared with a mere 29 percent in June of last year.

As of June 20, 113 farming villages had reported planting failures due to the effects of droughts and sandstorms. Of these villages, 24 are in Dosso, 48 in Tillabery, 7 in Niamey and 34 in Zinder. These drought conditions and sandstorms are more or less normal early in the growing season. However, food-deficit villages in these regions will need to be closely monitored to ensure timely distributions of seeds, where necessary, so as not to undermine their future food security.

It is clear that the growing season has yet to start definitively. Certain early-planted crops will probably fail for lack of regular and adequate rainfall.

Plant health conditions

On the whole, plant health conditions are stable. However, defoliating caterpillars have been sighted on 20 hectares of millet crops in the sprouting stage in Say department, with reports of grasshopper infestations of 134 hectares of crops in Dogon Doutchi, Dosso and Boboye departments, sightings of leaf hoppers on 293 hectares of sorghum crops in Keita and Bouza departments and reports of grasshopper movements and infestations of 540 hectares of millet crops and fallow fields in Matameye and Magaria departments. Efforts are already underway to treat all these infestations, supported by village brigades.

Figure 2. Status of new vegetation as of the 2nd dekad of June 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: NOAA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

Conditions in pastoral areas

In general, pasture production has been mediocre, creating grazing problems for livestock (figure 2). The limited new plant growth at this time of year is more or less normal, since it is generally not until the end of July that there is adequate new pastureland. As a result, most animals are feeding on woody growth and last year’s pasture residues.

There are already signs of new vegetative growth in grazing enclaves in farming areas where, for the most part, new plant cover is in anywhere from the germination to the sprouting stage. When vegetative cover is scarce in pastoral areas but emerging in agricultural areas, there is an increased likelihood for confrontation and conflict between pastoralists and farmers.

Figure 3. Fluctuation in millet prices between May and June of 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Figure 4. Fluctuation in millet prices between June of 2006 and June of 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Figure 5. Comparison of millet prices for June of 2007 with the 2002/06 average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source of data for Figures 3-5: SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

The limited rainfall since the start-of-season has delayed formation of the seasonal lakes and ponds normally used to water animals, except in areas of locally heavy rainfall (Dosso, Tillabery and Zinder). Year-round watering holes (permanent lakes and ponds, the Niger River and Lake Chad), wells and boreholes are still the main sources of water for livestock, which explains the current high concentrations of animals around these watering holes.

Agropastoral markets

Grain markets

Markets in all parts of the country are running smoothly thanks to regular market supplies. Data on millet prices collected by the Agricultural Market Information System (SIMA) as of June 26 shows relatively stable wholesale prices for millet crops on markets around the country, with an across-the-board decline of about 5 percent since May. Such a trend is rare at this time of year, when the pre-harvest lean period begins.

This positive trend in prices results from the steady increase in grain supplies from grain banks, imports and farmers looking to unload their grain crops (figure 3).

This year’s millet prices show a clear improvement over figures for June 2006 (figure 4) and the 2002/06 average price (figure 5) on all markets for which there is available price data. Thus, the lowest price for a 100kg sack of millet in June of this year was 10,250 CFAF on the Gaya market, compared with 14,100 CFAF at the same time last year and the recent average of 15,340 CFAF for this time of year. The Ouallam market posted the highest price – at 16,000 CFAF per 100kg sack, compared with a figure of 16,826 CFAF at the same time last year and the recent average of 19,800 CFAF for this time of year. The price stability or downturn in grain prices in the month of June guarantees better basic food access during this year’s lean period, particularly for high-risk population groups.

The two exceptions to these price trends were Téra (Tillabery) and Tanout (Zinder), where prices edged upwards by 6 and 5 percent, respectively. According to traders, the rise in prices in Téra is attributable to a cutback in supplies from Mali, with more and more Malian traders choosing to sell their crops in Mauritania where prices are higher. The slow start-of-season in Tanout explains the rise in prices on that market, making farmers and traders more reluctant to unload their inventories, limiting grain availability and driving up market prices.

Livestock markets

There was very little movement in livestock prices (in particular cattle) between May and June and a sharp improvement over prices at the same time last year and the average for this time of year. In general, June prices for livestock were comparable to figures for the month of May, but significantly higher than at the same time last year and well above the five-year average in all parts of the country, with the exception of Abalak, Mayahi, Mainé Soroa and Matameye, where weight losses by animals due to shortages of pasture deflated the value of the animals offered for sale on local markets (figures 6, 7 and 8).

Figure 6. Fluctuation in the price of bulls between May and June of 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Figure 7. Fluctuation in the price of bulls between June of 2006 and June of 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Figure 8. Comparison of prices for bulls in June of 2007 with the 2002/06 average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source of data for Figures 6-8: SIMB, SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

The lowest market price for a bull in June of this year was 184,333 CFAF in Tessaoua, compared with 174,167 CFAF in June of last year and an average of 191,642 CFAF for the same time of year. The highest price was 321,417 CFAF, in Matameye, compared with a figure of 357,542 CFAF on the same market in June of last year and an average of 279,721 CFAF for the same time of year.

Terms of trade for livestock/millet on markets in pastoral areas

On most pastoral markets between May and June, the terms of trade for livestock (figure 9) dropped steadily in grain equivalents (millet), despite certain improvements in corresponding price ratios, primarily in the Dosso, Zinder and Tahoua regions.

This pattern is normal, even with the stability and, in some cases, the downturn in grain prices, and is in line with the weight losses suffered by livestock as a result of growing shortages of pasture and the boost in market supplies.

Nevertheless, there has been a visible improvement in terms of trade for pastoralists over the course of the last year and relative the recent five-year average on all markets around the country, except in Téra, N’Guigmi and Diffa departments, where limited market supplies are causing grain prices to edge upwards, particularly in enclave areas (figures 10 and 11). Thus, the sale of a male goat on the Gaya market (Dosso) in June 2007 bought pastoralists close to 185kg of millet, compared with 110kg in 2006 and an average of 103 kg for this time of year.