Executive Summary

Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions July to September 2007

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• At national level, the food security situation is good, but localized food insecurity is expected between September 2007 and February 2008.
• At least 440,866 people will require food assistance starting September in parts of the country as a result of flooding, water logging and a dry spell during the 2006/07 production season.
• As long as the 2007/08 rainy season is normal, food security in these localized areas should improve after the hunger season ends in February or March 2008 when the early or green harvest becomes available.
• In country food stocks should be adequate to meet domestic food relief needs even if additional people become food insecure and need assistance.
• Flooding has resulted in increases in water borne diseases, and therefore increased health services are needed in affected areas.
• In a worst case scenario, 13 additional districts which are highly vulnerable to food insecurity would face higher levels of food insecurity and also require assistance until March 2008.

Current Food Security Situation

At the national level, food security is good due to above normal 2006/07 agricultural production and an exceptionally large carryover stock of cereals from the 2006/07 marketing season. As a result of good supply, staple food prices have remained relatively low and much below average. Thus, staple foods are accessible to most households who rely on the market. Because the government will allow only 200,000 MT of maize exports during the current marketing season, supply will remain high in country and therefore prices are expected to remain low for the remainder of the season.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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In addition, livestock prices have increased from the low levels which prevailed in December 2006, during the peak of the last hunger season, increasing household incomes for livestock holding households. Increased livestock prices also suggest that restrictions on the movement of livestock in Southern and Western provinces have had an insignificant impact on the incomes of rural households.

Localized floods and prolonged dry spells had a moderate impact on the livelihoods of affected populations, according to an in-depth assessment carried out by the Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee in July. The most significant impact of these weather shocks was on infrastructure, followed by increases in health risks, especially from water-borne diseases.

Furthermore, major income sources, expenditure patterns and coping strategies have largely remained unchanged in comparison to the 2006/07 consumption/marketing season, which was considered a normal season, according to the VAC assessment.

Most-likely food security scenario

Given the current favorable situation, and assuming that livestock movement restrictions continue to have a minimal impact on livestock prices, that cassava production is normal, and that the 2007/08 agricultural season is near normal, the most likely food security scenario for Zambia between August 2007 and March 2008 is a generally stable food security situation.

However, localized food insecurity affecting about 440,000 people in western and northern Zambia is expected due to the dry spells, floods and water logging experienced during the 2006/07 agricultural season. Populations in affected areas will face a significant food gap, after taking into account their major means of accessing food and income. Food shortage for these households will start in September 2007 and last until February 2008, when the early harvest or green harvest becomes available.

Populations in an additional thirteen districts need monitoring during the 2007/08 marketing season. Some households in these districts are at risk of food insecurity mainly due to chronic poverty, which makes them highly vulnerable to food insecurity.

In contrast to western areas, the areas in the north affected by weather hazards are expected to see improved food security resulting from increased income during the peak trade season between September and November. These areas also rely on cassava, which was not affected significantly.

In addition, off-season production will cushion households in the valley areas of the country during the lean period (November to February) as harvests become available in December and January.

Thus, localized populations within fourteen districts will need food aid in western and northern Zambia. A total of 31,742 MT of food aid is needed to support 440,866 people for six months starting in September 2007. In-country stocks are adequate to meet these and further emergency food needs that may arise.

Water contamination caused by earlier floods has increased diarrhea and malaria prevalence in children above five years of age and adults. Additional attention to these health problems is required according to the VAC assessment.

Figure 2. Most likely scenario - Projected food security conditions from October 2007 to Mach 2008
October to December 2007	January to March 2008
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Worst case food security scenario

Although unlikely, if inadequate moisture and inputs lead to a poor winter harvest in December and January, restrictions on livestock movements to contain the spread of Contagious Bovine Pleuro Pneumonia (CBPP) cattle disease start to have a more significant impact on livestock trade, and the 2007/08 agricultural seasons starts badly, then a worst case scenario could emerge. This scenario also assumes that there are poor market linkages caused by flood damage to transport infrastructure, preventing the flow of staple foods from surplus to deficit areas.

Figure 3. Worst case scenario - Projected food security conditions from October 2007 to March 2008
October to December 2007	January to March 2008
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This would result in a deterioration of food security, especially in areas already experiencing food insecurity and thirteen districts identified as highly vulnerable to food insecurity. In these districts, households would be unable to meet their food and income needs, due to foregone winter crop production and lower income from livestock sales. As a result of a poor start to the 2007/08 agricultural season staple food prices would also increase during the hunger season, resulting in reduced access for market dependent households. While good overall national supply may mitigate the extent of price increases, the high levels of poverty and low levels of income in these areas mean that many households are highly sensitive to price increases, especially at this time.

Thus, in addition to the fourteen districts already identified as requiring relief assistance, thirteen additional districts would need relief assistance. Not only would there be an increase in the number of people in need of assistance, assistance will be needed for a longer period because a poor 2007/08 agricultural season will limit the potential of the green harvest to alleviate food insecurity. In the worst case scenario, food aid will be needed for at least another month, until March 2007. Even under this scenario, there are adequate food stocks in country to meet relief assistance needs.