Executive summary

Figure 1: Current estimated food security conditions (February 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2: Most-likely scenario: Estimated food security conditions (July 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3: Worst-case scenario: Estimated food security conditions (July 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• Food security is currently stable in Honduras, mainly due to the demand for labor in agro-industry and the food reserves of the postrera harvest that ended in December. Approximately 40,000 people are facing chronic and structural food insecurity.

• No significant changes are expected in the food security situation for most of the population from February to July. The normal hunger season is expected between April and June, but in June poor households will begin to earn income from the sale of their labor in the primera-season planting that begins in May/June.

• In the worst-case scenario, the rainy season will be delayed one month due to the El Niño phenomenon, thus delaying the primera sowing and the demand for unskilled labor. In this case, the food security of approximately 40,000 people will be aggravated, and their access to food will become even more limited due to the increasing trend in maize prices.

Current food security situation

Honduras faces serious macro- and socio-economic challenges, and is one of the four Latin American countries with the lowest per capita income and highest food deficit. Approximately 42 percent of the population is affected by poverty and food insecurity, which is aggravated by the high population growth, low economic growth, low salaries and high cost of the basic food basket.

Currently, most of the poor rural population, which are primarily staple cereal subsistence farmers, have adequate access to the main products of their basic food basket (maize and beans), as the main source is their own postrera production that ended in December. Furthermore, the sale of their labor in coffee, sugar cane, melon, watermelon, shrimp and banana harvesting and processing provides them with income to cover any food deficit and meet other basic needs.

Approximately 40,000 people (6,700 families of subsistence farmers, workers and indigenous people) from the Choluteca, Francisco Morazan, Intibuca, La Paz, Lempira, Olancho and Valle departments are facing structural food insecurity, as a result of their poverty, limited access to productive means (land, tools and inputs), dependency on markets (their main source of food), sanitary conditions, low salaries, unemployment and high cost of the basic food basket.

Despite the decreasing trend of white maize production since 2002, it has been sufficient to cover the population’s consumption for the last five years, representing approximately 63 percent of the domestic availability. This figure includes the export and import balance (Figure 4). The maize price has increased by 30 percent since November 2006, and has limited the access of the most vulnerable populations to this product, which is the basis of nourishment for the majority of the Honduran population. To date, however, this increase has not had a significant impact in the access to maize for most rural poor households, as they are mainly consuming their own production and are purchasing other items with the income from their sale of labor in agro-industry.

In this same period there has been a 25 percent deficit in the domestic availability of beans, due to exports towards markets (such as in El Salvador), which offer better prices than the Honduran market (Figure 5). These exports reduce this product’s availability in the Honduran markets and increase the consumer price, diminishing most of the household’s access to beans.

Figure 4: Production and consumption of white maize in Honduras, 2002 to 2006	Figure 5: Domestic availability and consumption of beans in Honduras, 2002 to 2006
FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Source: National Statistics Institute, Basic Agriculture and Livestock Survey, November 2006

Most-likely scenario

The most-likely scenario from February to July is characterized by the normal annual conditions of the agricultural cycle. The coffee, sugar cane, melon, shrimp and banana harvesting/maquila will be carried out in February and March, and poor rural households still have food from their own production. The hunger season begins in April due to normal food access reduction, depletion of food reserves, increased prices of the basic food basket and the decrease of demand for unskilled labor. With the rainy season in May, the maize planting begins, and with it the demand for unskilled labor increases.

The food security for the most vulnerable rural households follows these seasons. Between February and March there is high demand for unskilled labor in the agro-industrial zones of Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala to cut coffee and sugar cane and to harvest and pack melon, water melon, banana and shrimp, which provides families with income to purchase food, pay for debts and for their children's education and purchase inputs for the primera planting. The production of maize and beans for domestic consumption still is the main source of food for the poor rural households during these months. This, together with the high demand for unskilled labor, allows families to cover the minimum food needs and to create a reserve for the hunger period from April to June.

A critical normal period for food security of the most vulnerable families is foreseen between April and June, due to the losses in the 2006/07 staple cereal production cycle. Families will finish their staple cereals reserves and their income will decrease due to the significant reduction in demand for unskilled labor in the agro-industry. Moreover, in April there is a normal increase in the price of maize and beans, as the depletion of households’ reserves raises the demand for these products in the markets.

The 6,700 households with the highest food vulnerability will be forced to reduce the quantity and quality of the food they consume and/or to migrate to urban centers to sell their labor in maquilas, construction, informal markets and domestic chores. These strategies are complemented with government interventions, such as the Poverty Reduction Strategy, technological and cash bonuses, and the interventions of development projects. Under this scenario, additional emergency assistance will not be required.

Worst-case food security scenario

The worst-case scenario from February to July is characterized by a delay in the start of the rainy season until June, and a delay in the primera sowing of maize until June/July. The influence of the El Niño phenomenon on precipitation, and thus on the 2006/07 agriculture cycle, will cause a month’s delay in the start of the rainy season that normally begins between mid May and the beginning of June.

The specific implications of this delay in the primera season depend on the dry spell or canicula. In the regions where the dry spell is not clearly defined (north and west), it will be possible to produce primera maize and beans with the tardy rains, but a water deficit in the cycle’s final stage will cause production losses and a considerable reduction in the domestic food production. In the regions that receive little rainfall (or secano regions in the south and east) where the dry spell is present from mid-July to mid-August, this delay will preclude the primera maize and beans production. In this scenario, there would not be a primera harvest and the availability of food from domestic production for poor households would rely entirely on the postrera harvest in October or November.

Between May and June there will be a significant reduction in the demand for agricultural labor for the staple cereal production. This will reduce household income, thus diminishing the poor rural households’ capacity to purchase food until mid-June or beginning of July in the north and west, and until September in the south and east of the country. Also, the increased utilization of maize in the international production of ethanol has caused a 30 per cent increase in the price of maize in the national market. This will intensify the food insecurity situation of the 6,700 households with low response capacity during the critical time for food availability and access from April to September.

The 6,700 families with high vulnerability will tend to consume alternate food sources as caloric substitutes, such as bananas and cassava or manioc, or in the most extreme instances, only fruits. Moreover, they will have to migrate to urban centers (San Pedro Sula, Tegucigalpa, and San Salvador, mainly) to sell their labor in maquilas, construction, informal market and domestic chores. These household-level strategies will have to be complemented with food aid assistance to the 6,700 households, which must focus mainly on vulnerable groups (children under 5 years of age, pregnant women and the elderly). The timing of this food assistance intervention will depend on when the primera crops come–until August/September in the north and west, and until October/November in the south and east.