Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions (Jul to Sep 07) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Tanzania

• Most households are generally food secure as a result of good 2007 harvests in many parts of the country. However, moderate food insecurity persists for poor net-producer households that did not produce enough crops and have to turn to the market to meet their food needs in localized areas (yellow areas in Figure 1), following crop failures this year caused by floods, early cessation of rains or poor performance of masika rains in the bimodal areas. The number of food insecure households will be established by the results of an upcoming rapid vulnerability assessment (RVA) report.

• Seasonal rains are forecast to be normal throughout Tanzania through December. If inputs are available, upcoming cropping seasons are expected to be favorable, and food security will likely improve in early 2008.

• Pasture and water availability remains good, and the Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) 60-day forecast indicates favorable forage conditions. Terms of trade between grain and livestock are favorable to livestock keepers, leading to good food access for pastoral households.

• Wholesale cereal prices in most markets are lower than normal for this time of year. Cereal prices are well above average in Mtwara and Lindi, however, but income from the sale of cashews from September onwards is expected to offset the negative impacts of the high cereal prices on household purchasing power. Wholesale bean prices are generally high throughout the country, particularly in Kigoma and Bukoba. The high prices are stressing access to a main source of household protein.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Food security situation

Following good harvests last season in both unimodal and bimodal areas in which national production was 22 percent greater than the five-year average, food is widely available, and purchasing power remains adequate for net-consumer households in rural and urban areas. However, localized areas of moderate food insecurity exist in twenty districts, where food shortages resulted from floods or the poor performance of the msimu or masika rains. In these areas, food shortages at the household level and increasing prices are likely to negatively affect the consumption of poor net-producer households that did not produce enough crops and have to turn to the market to meet their food needs. These households have limited food access due to lack of income following crop failures and lack of alternative income sources. The number of households facing food insecurity will be established after the finalization of the report from the RVA that was conducted by the multi-agency Food Security Information Team (FSIT) in August/September.

The outlook for the upcoming vuli and msimu rainy seasons is positive (see section on seasonal progress below), indicating good harvests in early 2008 as long as inputs such as seeds and fertilizer are adequately available. However, if the October to January vuli rains in bimodal areas do not perform well, and the msimu rainy season does not start on time in October, households that are currently moderately food insecure are likely to become highly food insecure by March 2008.

In pastoral areas, pasture and forage conditions in many parts of the country are normal for this time of the year. Water availability and livestock body conditions are good throughout pastoral areas. According to the LEWS 60-day forage forecast, forage conditions will remain stable in most parts of the country in the next two months, and animal body conditions are expected to remain good. Terms of trade between grain and livestock, which are already favorable for livestock keepers and better than last year at this time, are likely to remain favorable, leading to good food access for pastoral households.

The Newcastle disease outbreak in poultry that often occurs around September has been reported in many parts of the country. The disease kills up to 90 percent of infected chickens, thus potentially reducing an important source of household income. Due to this disease, farmers are selling their chicken at low prices to minimize risks of losing them through deaths from Newcastle disease. This is likely to affect an important source of cash and protein in many households across the country. As this disease is viral and only controlled by vaccination, short-term options to mitigate poultry deaths are limited. Measures to prevent a potential outbreak in the future could include facilitating the availability of vaccines and conducting farmer awareness campaigns to increase understanding of the disease.

Seasonal progress

The growing cycle for vuli-season crops has started on time with the onset of the vuli rains in late September in bimodal areas. Farmers have started land preparation and planting. Perennial crops are progressing well throughout the country; bananas and tubers are at different growth stages, progressing well and sufficiently available in the markets across the country.

The September to December rainfall forecast indicates a high likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall in eastern and central areas. Northern and western parts of the country have a likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall. While still early in the season, this forecast indicates yet another good vuli harvest in bimodal areas and a favorable good start of the musimu season in unimodal areas. Heavy rains of short duration and flash floods are common in some parts of the Greater Horn of Africa sub-region, especially over the arid and semi-arid zones such as Shinyanga and Dodoma in Tanzania that have received scarce rainfall for a number of years, leading to chronic household food insecurity in those areas. However, last season floods occurred in Shinyanga and Dodoma received good rains for the crop production. Thus, although the coming seasons are generally expected to have good rains, some events may occur that can have negative short-term food security impacts, which are likely due to changing climatic conditions.

Markets, trade and food access

Most markets throughout Tanzania are well supplied, due to the high availability of maize following the above-average harvests in 2008. However, the areas where households face moderate food insecurity (see Figure 1) do not present an attractive market for wholesale traders to set up shops. This is attributed to larger grain traders being accustomed to and having facilities that help them to buy crops from villages when there are surpluses, but not selling there during food shortages.

Wholesale cereal prices are generally lower this year than at this time in 2006 and the five-year average (see Annex 1). This is likely due to good crop production in both Tanzania and surrounding countries, leading to fewer exports from Tanzania, increased domestic supply, and thus decreased prices.

Figure 2. Maize wholesale prices in Lindi, in TZS/100kg   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

However, in Lindi and Mtwara, wholesale maize prices are significantly above average and more than 60 percent greater than prices at the same time last year (see Figure 2 and Annex 1). The high prices in these areas likely result from a number of factors, including:

• High fuel costs that have resulted in increased transport costs;
• Campaigns to standardize the weights of bags sold by farmers;
• Excessive crop sales during the harvest, which depletes stocks in the areas; and
• The upcoming cashew season that increases the purchasing power of the residents, causing traders to take advantage of the situation and increase prices.

The high prices indicate that net market-dependant households may face restricted access to maize. The increase in maize prices is not expected to be a significant threat to household food security in these areas, though, due to increased incomes from the cashew industry that start with the sales of cashews from September onwards.

August wholesale bean prices in markets in the bimodal areas have increased compared to this time last year. This is likely due to the combined effects of a below-normal harvest last season and increased demand for seed stock during the vuli planting season. Wholesale bean prices in Kigoma and Bukoba are particularly high, more than 60 percent above last year. As beans represent the main source of protein in most households across the country, these high prices and the resultant decreased access are likely to have a negative impact on the nutritional quality of many household diets.

As of September 24, the national strategic grain reserves (SGR) were 125,051 MT of maize and 2,868 MT of sorghum. The SGR has recently issued a tender to sell 20,000 MT, but expects to replenish stocks through purchases from the main surplus production areas of Iringa, Songea and Sumbawanga. This is likely to reduce maize stocks in these areas and increase prices, which will improve farmers’ income from the sale of their crops.

Annex 1: Maize wholesale prices in reference markets, in TZS/100kg FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: FEWS NET