FEWS NET Monthly Report for Ethiopia covering the period Nov 2006 to Dec 2006.

ETHIOPIA Food Security Update
December 2006

Summary and implications

In addition to the significant number of chronically food insecure people who will be assisted by the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) in 2007, escalating and high level prices, floods and the enduring impact of the pastoral crisis of 2005/06 have resulted in a continued need for additional humanitarian assistance in 2007, especially in the Somali region where the PSNP has not yet started. 

The 2006/07 meher (main) harvest is better than average and last year in many areas of the country, and pasture and water availability has improved significantly in the drought affected southeastern pastoral areas of Ethiopia.  The preliminary results of the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) and Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Agency-led (DPPA) needs assessment indicate that the number of people requiring emergency assistance in 2007 will be reduced from the peak of 3.1 million emergency food aid recipients in 2006.  An official estimate of people needing emergency assistance will be available in January 2007, along with recommended actions to alleviate their food insecurity.  The Government and humanitarian community are expected to continue providing humanitarian assistance for the 7.3 million or more chronically food insecure Ethiopians in 2007 via a multi-sectoral and multi-year food security program. 

Seasonal calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Humanitarian needs

Figure 1: Percentage of population needing humanitarian assistance in 2006 (Emergency + PSNP)
 
Data source: Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) and Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB).  Graphics by FEWS NET, September 2006.

Current hazard summary

• Complete or partial 2005 deyr (October to December) and 2006 gu (March to May) season failures in southern and southeastern Ethiopia negatively affected the livelihoods of millions of pastoralists, who still require significant recovery time.
• Floods and hailstorms killed more than 600 people, with many more unaccounted for, and caused serious damage to crops and household assets during the meher rainy season (June to September 2006) and current deyr season.
• Cereal prices remain at record-high levels; terms-of-trade continue to be unfavorable for pastoralists.  
• Population influx from neighboring Somalia due to civil insecurity is creating extra pressure on meager resources.
• Tribal and resource-based conflicts occurred between August and October in southern Oromiya and Somali regions.
• Formal and informal commercial cross-border trade with Somalia is restricted due to civil insecurity and official border closure.

Somali Region update

From parched drought conditions early this year, pastoral rains have improved access to pasture, browse and water in nearly all livestock dependent pastoral areas, with current vegetation levels are reported to be normal to above normal. 

While there are some limited areas of southern zones of the region where lack of rainfall or in others heavy rainfall worsened food security conditions, for the most part, conditions in the rest of the region are good.  According to Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS), the southern, south-eastern, northeastern and central parts of Somali region have continued to exhibit favorable forage conditions with well above normal conditions found in most of these areas.  However, the western and northern parts of the region are under normal to watch status.

Continued rains in flood affected areas have exacerbated the impact of flooding by making these areas inaccessible.  Even recent needs assessment teams were not able to reach many flood affected areas.  Moreover, the impact of escalating prices is most pronounced (due to inaccessibility) on the poorest section of society whose access to the basic necessities of life is weakened.  Flood affected areas especially the woredas (districts) of Mustahil, Kelafo, Ferfer, West and East Imy and West Gode need close monitoring in the coming months. 

As the October to December pastoral rains end and dry season conditions begin, high levels of vegetative biomass are good signs that livestock will have sufficient fodder until the main rains begin again in March or April.  Good pasture and water will help the slow process of recovery to start for drought affected pastoralists.

While there are positive signs that food security is improving, it is important to point out that large numbers of people remain highly food insecure, particularly in flood affected areas which continued to need emergency and rehabilitation assistance.  These populations have not recovered from the impact of successive drought and the recent floods.  It will take more than one good season to recover sufficiently and reduce their level of dependence on humanitarian assistance.  Recovery in pastoral areas takes time as herds recuperate through the natural cycle of kidding and calving, and eventually restoration of milk production.  Furthermore, households who lost most of their animals must establish a new livelihood. 

By early January 2007, the results of the recently completed DPPC-led multi-agency needs assessments and pasture and water availability assessment in the region are expected to provide a more comprehensive picture of the impact of the deyr season rains on the food security situation in pastoral areas. 

Joint FAO/WFP Assessment Mission's preliminary crop estimate for 2006/07

FAO and WFP conducted their annual Crop and Food Supply Assessment (CFSAM) between late November and the beginning of December covering all crop growing areas with the exception of agro-pastorals in Gambella, Afar and Somali Regions.  The major objective of this mission was to estimate the meher season cereal and pulse production which is usually harvested between October and December.  The preliminary findings of the assessment were released on 08 December 2006. 

The preliminary results of the assessment hinted a national harvest of about 19 million MT of cereals and pulses for the 2006/07 meher season.  This does not include the 2007 belg season harvest, which usually ranges from 350,000 to 500,000 MT.  The preliminary FAO/WFP production estimate represents a 6 percent increase in area cultivated and 3 to 5 percent increase in yield from last year.  It also represents close to 45 percent increase in production over the past five-year FAO/WFP average, making it the third consecutive bumper harvest year (See Table 1). 

Table 1: Area ('000 Ha) and Production ('000 MT) of Cereals and Pulses, 2001/02 - 2006/07

Source: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Ethiopia, various reports and this year's mission finding. 
* Use of CSA based data for Amhara begins.
** MoARD revised figures, including 2006 belg estimate.
*** These figures are very rough preliminary estimates from FAO/WFP mission - area increased by 12 percent and yield by a range of 3 to 5 percent from last year.

According to the preliminary results of the mission, overall agricultural performance in 2006 was good in all crop producing areas of the country, including the east which performed poorly for the past several seasons.  The mission further reported that the rainfall performance during the 2006 belg (March to May) season, and the meher (June to September) season was generally good, far better than average and better than last year.  Favorable weather during the main meher season: (i) encouraged planting over more land area (6 percent increase); (ii) increased the relative amount farmers planting of high yielding improved seeds (with about a 16 percent increase observed for improved seeds use, from 19,000 MT last year); and (iii) encouraged farmers to invest more in their agriculture.  In addition, there have been other reported reasons for positive performances of production this year: high producer incentives due to relatively high prices throughout the year; strong regional government commitments to improving input credit facilities resulted in increase in input use (fertilizer use increased by about 7 percent from the 350,000 MT used last year) and no scarcities of supply of inputs were reported.  Finally, pest and disease prevalence this year was reportedly minimal and the rains in November and early December are not expected to cause any serious damage to crops as most crops have already been harvested.  Given all the favorable conditions underlying the increase in 2006/07 meher harvest, the percentage increase in crop production should have been much higher than the FAO/WFP estimate of 3 to 5 percent yield increase. 

In the midlands and lowlands of eastern Ethiopia, where khat (a mild stimulant) is a major source of cash income, relatively good performances of rainfall this year increased its production, both in terms of quantity and quality.  It is also reported that khat production is expanding to the north.  Coffee production and prices this year are expected to remain as high as last year which is expected to maintain the incomes of many in western, southwestern and eastern parts of the country.  The perennial staple, enset (false banana) production, which is dominant for the Southern Nations is also expected to be good.

The most significant factor in terms of the overall food security situation in 2007 will be the impact of this year's increase in crop production, which will be analyzed in detail by the DPPA-led multi-agency assessment team and whose results are anticipated in early January.  In general, the estimated bumper national harvests are expected to reduce the number of food insecure people requiring emergency assistance in 2007. 

Market analysis

In most years November to December is a time when the increase in supply from the main harvest and the sale of carryover stocks from previous seasons lead to a decline in cereal prices.  This period normally lasts through March or April.  This year, however, cereal prices showed some signs of modest declines and stability in October, but then increased again in November from their September 2006 peak levels. 

Cereal prices continued to be much above their 2001 to 2005 average levels throughout 2006, a long-lasting trend that started in 2004.  Persistent high prices for teff and wheat are especially concerning (see figures 2 and 3).  In November 2006, teff and wheat prices in the Addis Ababa market were close to 55 and 30 percent above same time last year, respectively, when prices reached their highest levels in recent years.  Similar price trends are found throughout the country including in both deficit and surplus crop producing areas. 

Figure 2: Addis Ababa wholesale prices for selected staple cereals

Figure 3: Real retail prices of white maize in Addis Ababa: 13-month trend and 2001-2005 monthly average
  
Source: Data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE).  Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia.
Notes: (1) Prices are expressed in Ethiopian Birr per Quintal.  (2) One Quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian Birr ? 12 US Cents. 

A number of factors are thought to be at the root of these high price trends including but not limited to: continuous fuel price increases (causing other commodity prices to increase), grain purchases by grain market cooperatives and unions; ongoing local purchase of food aid; increased formal and informal cross-border trade; injection of cash into the economy through food security programs; budgetary support at woreda level (salary payments); increased investments in urban areas; reduced cereal sales immediately following harvest (repayment of credit to woredas spread throughout the year); higher livestock prices and sales income; traders and farmers holding onto stocks in anticipation of further price increases; and reductions in food aid with start of safety net payments in cash.  (High livestock prices in rural areas where more than 90 percent of the meat supply to urban areas comes from, means more income for rural households who can then purchase more grain at higher prices.)

Markets have not yet reflected the possibility of a bumper national harvest.  Based on information from market informants and current assessments, it is likely that prices will continue to be much higher than average and will continue to show abnormal trends in the post-harvest period.  In general, however, the next few months could prove crucial in determining whether the current high level and increasing trends will persist or not.  Hence, prices will need to be monitored closely and actions to address the situation considered very carefully. 

Although farmers in traditional surplus producing areas are expected to benefit from the unusually high level prices at harvest time, these abnormal price increases threaten food access in the chronically food insecure and pastoral areas (especially in the eastern half of the country).  Lack of purchasing power exacerbated by the current high level and escalating prices prevents the poor (who are net buyers and mostly labor dependent) from increasing their grain consumption even during the peak of the harvest time.  Currently, there are no efforts to reverse these price trends or generate additional effective demand.

Given current high and increasing prices, normal interventions that occur during the bumper harvest, like local purchases of food aid, exports of grains, bulk purchases by Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) and cooperatives, etc., should be closely examined as they may further exacerbate problems in Ethiopia's fragile and volatile market. 

Some price stabilization and control measures are critical, particularly by the EGTE and other offices of the Government to protect consumers (especially the urban poor) from the adverse effects of very high and increasing cereal prices while at the same time allowing prices to sustain producer livelihoods and maintain domestic production incentives.  Provision of food for work may sustain consumers' effective demand and facilitate stabilizing prices by decreasing demand.  To compensate for very high level prices, cash provision for work at this time may require a serious revision of wage rates to ensure beneficiaries have access to adequate amounts of food. 

Weather update

The month of November and beginning of December is normally the peak of harvest and dry period in all meher season crop dependent areas of the country.  The southern and western parts of the country, especially highland areas, normally receive showers.  However, in the mainly pastoral southern and southeastern lowland areas of the country (South Omo Zone in SNNPR, Borena Zone in Oromiya Region and southern zones of Somali Region), November and beginning of December is a period when the short rainy season that extends from late September comes to an end. 

This year, the rains had reportedly ceased in almost all northern and northwestern crop dependent areas by early November, creating favorable conditions for farmers to carryout normal harvest activities.  However, field reports expressed alarm around late November and early December that late rains would reduce cereal production by destroying cereal heads, in the case of teff, and allowing the spread of crop pests and fostering rot in other crops.  While this has occurred in some locations, recent crop performance information from the Ministry of Agriculture and FAO indicates that overall, late season rains did more good than harm.  Indeed in some locations, the late rains allowed a double cropping of some crops due to increased length of growing period and increase moisture, an opportunity that rarely occurs. 

The overall performance of the short rains (October to mid-December) this year shows wetter than normal condition in many areas in the extreme southern and southeastern pastoral areas of Borena Zone (Oromiya) and Somali Region.  Despite floods in some pastoral areas discussed above, good rainfall in pastoral areas will lead to improved pasture and water during the long dry season (December 2006 to March 2007), allowing the slow process of livelihood recovery to begin for drought affected pastoralists. 

A further weakening in wet weather activity was observed across the major portions of Ethiopia, with a significant decline in unseasonable rains.  As pastoral rains are expected to end soon and the long jilaal (dry) season (mid-December to February) begins, there are hopes that the recovery process will be enhanced in many areas.  However, flood affected areas need increased vigilance as a rapid and continuous deterioration of food security situation in these zones is evident. 

Improving the needs assessment process in Ethiopia For the last several years, food security analysis has increasingly contained a strong livelihoods element.  That is, the household has been taken as the point of reference, and analysis has been based on the economic operation of typical households.  It has been found that this is an essential balance and complement to the more traditional, sectoral analysis of climate, agricultural production, market prices etc.  To this end the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has initiated an improved needs assessment approach which is based on the analysis of livelihoods at the household level, the Household Economy Approach (HEA).  HEA was primarily initiated in Ethiopia by Save the Children UK (SC/UK) in the early 1990s.  The GoE, through its Early Warning Working Group (EWWG), piloted a household economy-based needs assessment methodology during late 2003 and in January 2004 in Somali and Amhara Regions, respectively.  Following this, the DPPA (in collaboration with Emergency Preparedness Strengthening Program of USAID, or EPSP, and FEWS NET) undertook a pilot livelihood-based study in Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) in 2005.  The SNNPR activity was deemed successful in incorporating the livelihoods framework into the current needs assessment process.  To tackle the underlying causes of poverty and food insecurity, the GoE with strong support from donors, started providing secure safety nets to support more than 4.5 million chronically food insecure people starting from February 2005.  (The productive safety net program works through cash or food resource transfers to meet basic needs via labor based public works or direct support.  It is also planned to protect and build household and community assets.  It is also where the chronically food insecure can participate in development.)  More than 7.3 million chronically food insecure people have benefited in 2006 from participation in the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), receiving predictable food or cash transfers during the hungry season.  Safety Net transfers in pastoral region of Afar started in 2006 and in Somali are scheduled to start in the future.  These developments are expected to ease the demands on the development of needs assessment methodologies that will only focus on acute problems. At the same time, the World Bank funded Pastoral Communities Development Program (PCDP) (started in 2001) and the Pastoral Livelihoods Initiative (PLI) (September 2005 to September 2007) have early warning components in their livelihood effort which focus on HEA in pastoral areas.  When these various initiatives are added together, the livelihood scheme covers most of the pastoral regions. Despite various livelihood related initiatives in the country, there had been limited attempts to rationalize the disparate sets of information emanating from different agencies in Ethiopia.  This gives an opportunity to the GoE, through the DPPA, to integrate the existing livelihood-based efforts into a more sustainable system that will in the future lead to a comprehensive system. Taking this opportunity, the DPPA in collaboration with EPSP/USAID created a unit called Livelihood Integration Unit (LIU) within the DPPA's Early Warning Department in September 2006.  The main focus of the LIU includes: improving needs assessment and standards; playing a leadership role in non-food emergency assessments; integrating all livelihood efforts in the country; and scaling up the SNNPR HEA-based effort to other regions.  The expansion to other regions has already started in Tigray in October and is envisaged to continue in Amhara and Oromiya regions during 2007. Different agencies following the livelihood framework share much in common, notably the focus on assets and micro-macro links as well as common roots in the definitions of livelihood.  Given the current efforts, however, there had been various challenges, concerns and constraints raised around HEA which LIU is currently focusing on, that need to be tackled as the current efforts are strengthened and consolidated in a national system.  The improved HEA should go beyond estimating food gaps and beneficiaries by providing enough attention to a holistic and integrated understanding of food security and avoid biases against other multi-sectoral needs.  By using a holistic approach, and taking note of trends (and forecasts) over time as well as identifying key indicators for monitoring, the underlying causes of food insecurity can be understood more clearly, as can the opportunities for positive change.  The information system under development to bring together these initiatives needs also to look at all aspects of livelihoods including education, water and sanitation, health and nutrition, agriculture and livestock, HIV and AIDS, etc. Furthermore, while the current developments of needs assessment in the country intend to link with the overall Food Security Program through the Early Warning System, there is a notable and acknowledged lack of conceptual and practical discussion of the linkages between these potentially complementary components of an overall food security information and needs assessment system.  Particularly in the context of recurrent food security crisis, needs assessment should not be considered in isolation, but should be seen as part of a broader food security information and analysis system.

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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