Zambia has produced a maize surplus for the second consecutive year, despite adverse rainfall in localized areas in the middle of the growing season. The amount produced will be sufficient to meet domestic requirements as well as any arising food aid needs during the 2007/08 marketing season. Maize production increased in most provinces compared to the previous season and the five-year average, particularly in Central Province where production increased by 66 percent from the average as a result of increased commercial production in expectation of high regional maize prices. Cassava production also increased, which will improve food security in regions where the crop is a staple food. However, cash-crop production significantly decreased, due to a reduction in area planted of these crops as a result of low prices during the last marketing season. Few districts that reported adverse rainfall and requested food assistance have actually recorded below-average maize output, which implies that food deficits are chronic or due to factors other than rainfall.

Maize prices in most rural areas have remained below average due to the increasing supply from the harvest, which has improved household access to the staple food. Prices are expected to stabilize and increase marginally in the coming months, due to increasing purchases by the Food Reserve Agency and exports of up to 200,000MT later in the season given the government’s removal of the maize export ban. However, given the surplus production, prices are not expected to increase to the point that they significantly limit domestic consumer access.

Seasonal calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Surplus production in 2006/07 harvest

Figure 1. Production of main staple crops, in thousand MT FULL-SIZE IMAGE Note: Three-year average has been used for cassava Source: MACO

Figure 2. Production of cash crops and small grains, in thousand MT FULL-SIZE IMAGE Note: Three-year average has been used for cotton and tobacco Source: MACO

Zambia has produced a surplus for the second consecutive year, despite the floods and prolonged dry spells that affected localized areas during the critical part of the growing season. Maize and cassava were the main crops produced, and production of both was above average. The estimated maize output for 2006/07 dropped marginally (4 percent) with respect to the previous season, but remained 30 percent above the recent five-year average (figure 1). Cassava output was greater than during the previous year and is 17 percent above average. This level of cassava production implies that the impact of the floods on cassava fields was insignificant in the major cassava-producing areas of northern Zambia.

The output of small grains and cash crops has decreased relative to last year and the average (figure 2), which can be attributed to a reduction in hectares planted for all crops except groundnuts. The greatest reductions in planting with respect to the 2005/06 production season were in cotton (41 percent) and tobacco (30 percent), as a result of the relatively low prices offered for these cash crops last season. In the case of groundnuts, the 34-percent reduction in output compared to last year is primarily attributed to a significant reduction in yields as a result of adverse rainfall in the significant groundnut-producing areas of the Eastern Province.

Based on the Ministry of Agriculture crop estimate data, maize output in the Central Province substantially increased from the 2005/06 to the 2006/07 production season, rising by 92 percent from 210,607MT to 405,282MT (figure 3). This unusually high level of production surpassed that of the other high-producing areas of Eastern and Southern provinces, and could be attributed to increased production by commercial farmers, particularly in Mkushi and Chibombo districts, in expectation of high regional maize prices.

The 20-percent drop in production in Eastern Province with respect to the 2005/06 production season can be attributed to reduced yields due to the adverse rainfall impact. The drop in production is highest in Katete and Chadiza districts, which recorded at least 40 percent reduction, and Nyimba District where production dropped by 26 percent. However, the impact of the rainfall was insignificant in other districts, and the overall output is average for the province.

Despite prolonged dry spells during part of the growing season, production in the Southern Province was greater than last season and the five-year average. Out of nine districts in the province, only Livingstone, Mazabuka and Monze had marginal production reductions of up to 10 percent, while in all other districts production substantially increased, including in the normally deficit-producing valley areas.

In the relatively low-producing areas of Western, Northern and Lusaka provinces, production increased with respect to the previous season and the average. Production in North-western and Luapula provinces remained stable; a few districts recorded substantial reduction in production, but most had either marginal reductions or marginal increases.

Figure 3. Maize production in 2006/07 vs. 2005/06 and the five-year average by province, in MT FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MACO

Given the surplus production in the 2005/06 production season, carry-over stocks for this 2007/08 marketing year are significantly greater than during the 2006/07 marketing year (see table 1). Therefore, despite the marginal reduction in production, maize supply for the 2007/08 marketing season is 25 percent greater than last year, and is expected to yield a 250,000 MT exportable surplus. There has also been a 22 percent increase in total estimated maize requirements for the current marketing season, which can be mostly attributed to the significant increase in planned strategic reserve stock by the Food Reserve Agency as well as substantial increases in estimated seed requirements. The planned increase in grain reserves reflects the government’s attempt to safeguard in-country stock availability, although the reason for the estimated increase in seed requirements is unclear.

Food security implications

Zambia has produced sufficient staple foods to meet total domestic requirements and part of the regional maize requirements through exports during the coming marketing year. Based on the Ministry of Agriculture’s crop estimates, it appears that the impact of the prolonged dry spell on crop production was relatively small. The fact that production of maize (which is sensitive to low moisture availability) actually increased in most districts, including the normally deficit-producing valley areas, also indicates that the impact of the dry spell was minimal.

Figure 4. Maize output in districts assessed for adverse rainfall impact, compared to last season and average production   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MACO

Among the districts that were reportedly affected by floods, very few reported significant reductions in maize output. Of the 45 districts being assessed by the VAC to establish the extent of the impact of the adverse rainfall on livelihoods, only ten recorded maize reduction of 20 percent or more with respect to the previous season (figure 4), and only five districts recorded below-average production.

If maize output is an indication of the adverse rainfall impact on crops, this implies that part of the food deficit problems being reported by many districts is either chronic or attributed to factors other than rainfall.

Maize prices have generally remained low and below average in most rural areas, which indicates good supply on the markets and improved access from previous months when prices were higher. Prices in most rural markets were stable or declined from May to June, although prices increased unusually for this time of the year in a few districts including the high-producing districts of Eastern Province (such as Chipata, Katete and Petauke) and Monze District in Southern Province. Apart from Katete, where maize production decreased by 49 percent with respect to the previous season, the rest of the districts had only marginal production reductions. However, the FRA has already started maize purchases in Eastern and Southern provinces, and the resultant increase in market demand could be contributing to the local price increases – of the 35,000MT purchased by the first week of July, 70 percent was from Eastern Province. The FRA purchases from the other provinces have been marginal, and in Northern and Luapula provinces purchases are yet to start. The slow pace of the purchase program in other provinces is likely partly due to the unacceptably high moisture content of the maize, but purchases should increase within the month of July.

The lifting of the maize export ban, with the government allowing up to 200,000MT of maize exports, will also increase prices. Traders have started stocking up maize to export later in the season when regional prices become higher in alternative competitive markets, such as Zimbabwe, South Africa, Namibia and Botswana, in addition to the usual DRC market. Currently, regional prices are relatively low with respect to prices prevailing in Zambia. The Kasumbalesa (DRC) prices are decreasing normally for this time of the season, dropping to US$190/MT in May from US$300/MT in April. Maize prices at the Lusaka commodity exchange were around US$198/MT at the end of June. The anticipated price increases in the coming months will help increase incomes for producers, but are not expected to increase to levels that will disadvantage consumers given the surplus production this year. The reduced cash-crop production will decrease income for producer households if the reduced area was not planted with other crops. The specific impacts of the reduced cash-crop production, as well as of the floods and dry spell during the production season, will be established by the Zambia VAC, which has completed the data collection for the in-depth vulnerability assessment and is finalizing results.