Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter of 2007 (Oct/Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Figure 2. Livelihood zones of Mauritania FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

• Food security in Guidimakha region of Mauritania is at risk, contingent on a combination of the rainy season, sources of food and income, ongoing programs and migrant remittances. In pastoral areas, improvement in grazing and watering conditions has mitigated food insecurity problems. The current areas of most concern are those in which the poor start of this year’s rainy season has hindered the growth and development of crops and pasture. Accordingly, Aftout, Brakna and northern Gorgol are highly food insecure (see red areas in Figure 1) and require close monitoring.

• The decrease in rainfall in the second dekad of September continued into the third dekad of the month. Rainfall totals in most farming and agropastoral areas are below last year’s totals as well as the 1990/2000 ten-year average. It is highly unlikely that these rainfall deficits will be made up, with the current position of the inter-tropical convergence zone indicating that the rainy season is coming to an end. This will have a negative impact on crop growth in all crop-producing areas where planting began after the second dekad of August. Although current progress of crop growth is satisfactory, there is very little likelihood that crops in these areas will fully mature and produce decent yields given the diminishing rainfall activity.

• Conversely, steadily increasing water levels and the flooding of lowland and dam areas will likely enable a sizable expansion in the area planted in flood-irrigated crops. However, this depends on the ability of farmers to overcome current reluctance to plant as a result of infestations of pink-stalk borers and access seeds in time for the planting of these crops. The seed access is complicated by the many years that have elapsed without the growing of any walo (flood-recession) crops, which is making it hard for farmers to locate needed supplies of seeds. Unlike the case of rainfed crops, the planting period for flood-recession crops is short and contingent on the progress of receding floodwaters, which could be swift, particularly when accompanied by strong harmattan winds. Thus, farmers wishing to seize the opportunity to grow flood-recession crops will need to get acquire seeds right away to take part in off-season farming activities.

Currently, the only rainfed farming areas capable of producing near-average grain harvests are southern Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, Assaba and Guidimakha, none of which were affected by flooding. In contrast, the situation in irrigated crop-producing areas has not improved, and this year’s rice harvest is expected to be well below last year’s amount due to the smaller area planted, problems accessing needed farm inputs and the significant impact of grain-eating birds.

The improvement in rainfall conditions in transhumant pastoral areas (livelihood zone 4 – see Figure 2), the western reaches of the country’s agropastoral zone (zone 5) and the Senegal River Valley (zone 7) failed to substantially regenerate pasture, which, in most cases, has slowed the return migration of migratory animal herds. This, in turn, is depriving residents in these areas of access to milk, which had been the mainstay of their diet. Elsewhere, pastures range from good to excellent condition, but the earlier-than-usual influx of massive numbers of animals from areas with poor pasture is creating overgrazing problems in the favorable areas of zones 5, 6 and 7. In addition to causing land degradation, the increased migration is a source of conflict with local farmers who have not yet harvested their crops.

Food insecurity has decreased sharply in the central and eastern reaches of the country’s agropastoral zone (zone 5), in all rainfed farming areas (zone 6) and in the eastern part of the valley (zone 7) as a result of the improvement in natural seasonal conditions and ongoing assistance programs. However, torrential rains in these same areas have caused flooding, which has affected many households. Although the government has not appealed for any outside aid, the current living conditions for these flood victims suggest the need for the implementation of emergency assistance programs. Current ad-hoc operations by the Social Welfare and Food Security Commission (CPSSA), the World Food Program (WFP) and other international organizations are not meeting existing needs, and large numbers of food victims still require outside aid. Where they exist, the assistance programs by the WFP, the CPSSA and UNICEF are running smoothly and helping to lower food insecurity, particularly for households of herders, agropastoralists and farmers engaged in growing early-maturing varieties of crops.

Decreasing prices for coarse grain crops (with the exception of flood-recession sorghum) and relatively stable prices for imported foods – heavily influenced by increased imports from Mali – are helping to improve household food access. Senegalese exports are still extremely limited, and primarily involve re-exports of Asian rice.

Figure 3. Comparison of the developmental stages of crops as of the end of September and the second dekad of September FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Farming and plant health conditions

The size of the area planted in dieri (rainfed highland) crops is lagging behind last year in all parts of the country with the exception of Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, Assaba and Guidimakha, where in spite of the flooding the number of hectares of crops is up from 2006. Farmers in these regions are already consuming green, early-maturing varieties of crops. Crops at high and medium altitudes in Guidimakha, Gorgol, central Assaba, northern Hodh El Gharbi (Affolé) and the southern part of Néma department have begun to show signs of wilting (Figure 3). Crops in lowland areas are developing normally. There has been little change in the size of the area planted in irrigated crops since September due to limited access to fertilizer, the availability of which is adequate but the price of which has increased 160 percent since last year with the elimination of the government subsidy. Farmers in the rest of the country are expecting to rely on lowland and walo crops, but the decreasing price of flood-recession sorghum crops (240 UM in September); problems accessing needed seeds; the earlier-than-normal influx of migratory animals; and the prospect of infestations of pink-stalk borers are raising concerns about production prospects that my discourage many potential growers of lowland and walo crops.

Plant health conditions are stable in all regions of the country. The scheduled joint bird-control program by Mauritania and Senegal had still not started up as of the beginning of October but, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Pastoralism, the program should get underway by the end of the second dekad of the month.

Pastoral conditions

Rainfall activity during the last two dekads of September slightly improved the condition of pasture in transhumant pastoral areas (zone 4), the western reaches of the country’s agropastoral zone (zone 5) and the Senegal River Valley (zone 7), but conditions have deteriorated since the beginning of September throughout the central, southern and eastern parts of the country. However, it is uncertain whether the wilting (as shown in the decreasing vegetation indicators) is associated with the end of a growing cycle or the rainfall deficit. A comparison with the 1998 to 2006 average for the end of September shows large deficits in Trarza, central and northern Brakna and southern Guidimakha, all of which are important stock-raising areas. Migratory herders recently returning to their home bases are preparing to leave again at the end of Ramadan, while those still in the south have no plans to return. The short-lived return, or in some cases the decision not to return, to these areas by local herders has negative implications for the food security of local residents who rely on milk production from returning animals as a source of food and income.

Pasture is sparse throughout the northern reaches of the country’s agropastoral zone, which includes central and northern Brakna, northwestern Gorgol and southern Tagant. However, conditions are improving towards the southeast. Beyond Maghama department in Gorgol, there is thick, rich pastureland all along the Malian border, as far as Hodh El Chargui. While migratory herds in the south are following their traditional migration paths, large-scale herders in northern Brakna, Trarza and Tagant are changing their pattern of seasonal migration, staying sedentary close to major transport routes as long as possible to sell their milk, increase savings and build up food stocks for their sedentary livestock. Certain herders have chosen to stay close to their home base instead of making a long journey (towards Mali), given that current conditions in pastoral areas of northern Senegal, their usual place of refuge, are similar to conditions near their homes.

Aside from a few scattered cases of botulism and pasteurellosis, on the whole, animal health conditions are good, with adequate water access.

Figure 4. Trends in terms of trade on the Boghé market FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Mauritania

Market conditions

As of the end of September, markets had ample supplies of imported foods. The opening of retail outlets selling staple foods at subsidized prices by the National Import and Export Company (SONIMEX) during the month of Ramadan helped to stabilize food prices. Malian and Moroccan exports have also increased, causing prices for rainfed grain and vegetable crops to fall by 10 and 16 percent respectively compared to September prices.

Prices for livestock, which should have been increasing with the approaching holiday period, have also decreased (Figure 4). Small and medium-scale herders have increased animal sales, which has sharply driven down prices for small-stock animals (by between 25 and 30 percent since September). This practice could be due to the poor condition of pastures, which is forcing herders to decrease the size of their herds. Taking advantage of heavy demand during the holiday period, herders increased their sales at the time when animal body conditions were good enough to fetch the best prices, but the decreasing prices has caused food access to decline as terms of trade have decreased (Figure 4).

Since plummeting in September from 5200 UM to 3800 UM, prices for animal feed have leveled off. However, all signs point to a rebound in prices in the weeks ahead with the end of the rainy season and the sparse pasture resources in Trarza, Brakna and the northern regions of Adrar, Inchiri and Tiris Zemmour.

Food security conditions

The combined effects of improvements in agro-ecological conditions following the rains during the first two dekads of September and the ongoing assistance programs (village-level food security reserves, community feeding centers and distributions of free food aid) have lowered food insecurity throughout the country. However, there are still numerous pockets of food insecurity in transhumant pastoral areas (zone 4), including northern and southwestern Trarza and in the western reaches of the country’s agropastoral zone encompassing northern and central Brakna and northern Gorgol.

The flood damage in August and September will have an impact on future grain availability for farm families in zones 5 and 6, most of which grow only rainfed crops. Most likely, they will be forced to sell off livestock in order to buy grain supplies on local markets.