Figure 1. Estimate of current food security in Mali, third quarter 2007 (July – September) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Mali

• After two consecutive years of good rainfall and good cereal production in Mali, cereal availability and access remain stable throughout the country.

• Prices are lower than during the same period last year. They are also below the average for the past five years.

• July and August were marked by a clear improvement in weather conditions, which allowed many growing operations to resume. Conditions for livestock are also improving.

• These factors are contributing to widespread food security in the country, although some parts are facing moderate food insecurity due to structural problems, and the northeast is highly food insecure due to civil unrest (Figure 1). Taking these conditions into account, no food shortages requiring emergency outside aid are anticipated in Mali between now and the next harvest (beginning in October and November).

Seasonal calendar and important events

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Current food security situation

Cereal production in Mali has been exceptionally good in recent years. The 2006/07 harvest produced an estimated 3,693,240 MT—a record for agricultural production in the country and 25 percent higher than the average for the past five years. It was also 9 percent over the figures for the previous agricultural season (2005/06), also a good harvest year. These exceptional numbers are important because they help cover the food needs of the country’s entire population, especially during the lean periods.

Figure 2. Rainfall from May 1 to August 13 compared to the average FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Figure 3. Crop conditions for millet as of August 10, 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Figure 4. Pasture conditions as of August 10, 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Pasture and water for livestock are available throughout the country. Amounts of both improved once the rains definitively arrived in July. The animals are fattening satisfactorily and milk production is increasing, which benefits pastoralists. Animal health conditions are also relatively calm. Livestock price levels are favorable to pastoralists, giving them relatively easy access to cereals on the markets.

The country’s cereal markets remain well stocked. Prices are lower than last year and than the average for the past five years for the same period. The current lean period (July to September) is the time when cereal prices usually reach their peak as supplies diminish, and households are managing their cereal stocks more carefully while awaiting the upcoming harvest. Looking ahead, developments on the cereal markets from now until the next harvest should be similar to last year’s, with normal seasonal price increases between July and September and seasonal decreases beginning in November or December.

Progress of the season

July and August were marked by a clear improvement in weather conditions. As of August 10, cumulative rainfall totals were normal to above normal in the entire country (Figure 2). The rains came more frequently than usual throughout the country, sometimes causing floods and damage such as destruction of habitat, roads and bridges, and flooded fields in some localized areas of the Kayes, Koulikoro, Sikasso, Ségou and Mopti regions.

With regard to water conditions, levels on all watercourses are rising; however, average dekad levels as of August 10 were still lower than last year, except on the Baoulé River at Bougouni and the Senegal River at Kayes. Water levels are also below average, except on the Baoulé at Bougouni.

The pace of crop planting on farming plots stepped up significantly during July, as rainfall conditions improved—but without entirely catching up after the delay in the rains and in planting in June. This meant the amount of crops planted as of the end of July 2007 was less than during the same period last season.

Crop tending is underway. Despite the lateness of the rains, crop growth and the general appearance of the fields are good throughout the country (Figure 3). Generally speaking, millet, sorghum, maize and rice are at the tillering and early height-growth stages. Cotton, groundnuts, cowpeas and fonio are at the branching stage. In cotton-growing zones, producers have begun reconverting areas initially planned for cotton into cereal-growing plots, especially for millet, sorghum and maize, because the time for planting cotton has passed. In the agency jurisdictions and small irrigated areas, rainy-season work is in progress, and rice is being transplanted.

A look at plant health conditions reveals that the desert locust situation remains calm everywhere in the country. Otherwise, grain-eating birds have been spotted in uncovered planted fields on the rice-growing plains at Mopti, and there have been infestations of defoliating caterpillars in the millet, maize and sorghum fields in the Kayes, Koulikoro and Ségou regions.

Pasture conditions are gradually improving in the country’s main agropastoral and pastoral areas, even though available biomass is still scant (Figure 4). In general, livestock feeding conditions are relatively good. Livestock is easily watered at surface watering holes. The animals are fattening and milk production is increasing. Non-migratory animals are currently under guard, while most migratory herds and flocks are in their rainy-season pastures.

Markets

Figure 5. Millet prices on consumer markets of regional capitals, from May to August 2007, compared to 2006 and to the average for 2002-06 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: OMA, FEWS NET/Mali

Figure 6. Rice prices on the Ségou market 2006/07 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: OMA, FEWS NET/Mali

The country’s cereal markets are adequately supplied. The price for consumer millet rose slightly on all markets of the regional capitals, except Kayes and Gao, where prices were stable due to the steady flow of food to these markets during this period. Despite the increases, and thanks to stocks from two good years of agricultural production, the prices seen this year are lower than they were last year and are also lower than the average for the past five years (Figure 5). On the market in Ségou, in the main millet production zone, mid-August prices were 15 percent lower than in August 2006 and 27 percent below the average for the past five years.

While an upward price trend is normal during this season, it can also be explained by the poor start to the 2007-08 agricultural year, which slowed the rate at which holders of stocks released them onto the market. However, the advent of more favorable weather conditions would seem to indicate that this situation will not worsen.

Prices for consumer rice have been increasing continually since the beginning of 2007. On the market in Ségou, in a major rice-producing area, rice prices jumped in July up to last year’s levels for the same period and were four percent above the average for the past five years (Figure 6). The increase seems to be supported by a consumer rush toward local rice, which is the preferred variety.