The food security situation in the country remains stable. Food is available from the postrera harvest, and a high percentage of the population is employed in coffee harvesting and the sugar cane harvest. Households in some zones are also benefiting from income derived from fruit production, and the apante harvest in March will contribute to maintaining the supply of beans and price stability.

Air temperature, influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, has risen since December throughout the country, and drought conditions prevail. This can cause erosion in soils and water shortages, especially in the dry zone, in the coming months when the primera planting begins.

Seasonal Calendar

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Progress in the agricultural production and its implications in food security

Figure 1. Main apante beans productive zones FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MFEWS

The poorest households’ food security is stable as a result of the income generated in coffee farms and in sugar refineries and the food reserves of the postrera harvest.

The postrera harvest, which ended in December, is an important source of annual national bean production. According to reports from the Ministerio Agropecuario y Forestal (MAGFOR) (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry) from December 30, 2006, nearly 42,000 metric tons of beans were produced in the present cycle, thus ensuring the local market supply and price stability (currently C$7/pound, equivalent to US$0.38). Stable prices particularly benefit subsistence producers that do not have reserves and depend on markets for food purchase, and current price levels enable them to purchase food at almost the same prices as last year.

Also, more than 50 percent of coffee and 60 percent of sugar cane production has been harvested, and the harvesting is estimated to end in March. These activities constitute a vital source of income between November and March for nearly 300,000 households. Once the harvests are over, the workers will return to their land to prepare the soil for a new primera planting.

Figure 2. Main fruit production zones FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MFEWS

Figure 3. Rainfall average versus historical norm FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MFEWS, prepared with INETER data

If climate conditions remain stable, and no other shocks affect the harvest, the apante bean harvest is expected to produce 50,000 metric tons between March and April. This will help maintain the reserves of this product in the markets and the stability of bean prices and will generate income for producers in the coming months. The apante sowing takes place in the high zones of the Jinotega, Matagalpa and Nueva Segovia departments that benefit from the apante rains (Figure 1).

Citric production is beginning in the high zones of the Pacific, Masaya, Granada and Carazo, which supplies the main markets in Managua. The harvest is expected to extend through the first half of April. The labor involves the whole family, from the handling and harvesting to the marketing; the latter is usually carried out by women. The average weekly income that the fruit producers generate varies from 300 to 400 cordobas (US$15-20), which makes it an important source of income that allows families to cover their basic expenses during the dry season, thus minimizing the risk of food insecurity.

Weather Conditions

According to the Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER) (Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies), the warm conditions of the El Niño phenomenon are expected to continue in February, causing an increase in temperature and intensifying the dry conditions.

The strong winds characteristic of January, combined with the high temperatures and drought, may cause forest fires and damage apante crops and fruits, which are in the blooming and fruit-forming stage. These conditions have not yet caused any impact. The soil’s dryness can also diminish its capacity to absorb water, and thus cause more erosion.

According to INETER, February’s precipitation volume is expected to be below the historical norm (Figure 3). In the Pacific region, a shortage of rainfall is expected. In the Northern region, precipitation could fluctuate between 5 mm in the West and 15 mm in the East (the historical norm is 8 mm). In the Central region, the accumulated rain level could be between 1 mm in the Northeast and 15 mm in the East-Southeast (the historical norm is 20 mm). In the Atlantic Autonomous Regions, the accumulated rain level could vary from 50 mm in the North Atlantic Autonomous Region to 90 mm in the South Atlantic Autonomous Region, and 98 mm is the historical norm.