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Figure 1. Current food security conditions (July 2007)   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Adapted from Season 2007B Harvests Assessment Map layout: National Institute of Statistics

• The 2007B rainy season began late, but rainfall continued until mid-June and has been sufficient for crop development. As a result, a near-normal national harvest has been achieved. However, the yields of water-sensitive crops such as beans, the main pulse of the season, have been below normal. Seasonal assessment results establishing season-B production levels and national food security have estimated season 2007B national food crop production at 983,950 MT of cereals-equivalent, 3 percent lower than season 2006B, but 5 percent higher than the five-year season B average.

• National food security has improved with season B harvests, but localized food insecurity persists in the chronically food insecure Congo-Nile Ridge and Southern Plateau food economy zones. Additionally, poor households face moderate to high levels of food insecurity in Nyagatare and Kirehe districts, where late and erratic rains caused poor food production, and a livestock quarantine in Nyagatare further restricts household access to food and income sources.

• Food prices remain above average in Rwanda, especially for beans, which reflects below-normal production. The low levels of production and high prices will restrict household food access and negatively affect nutrition, as other protein sources, such as animal products, are expensive and not easily accessible to the poor.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Food security summary

National food security has improved with season B harvests. Preliminary results of the joint harvest evaluation mission indicate that season 2007B national crop production is 983,950 MT of cereals-equivalent, 3 percent less than season 2006B, but 5 percent higher than the five-year season B average (2002-2006). This translates to 1,839 kilocalories (Kcal) per person per day, which is 88 percent of the globally recommended daily requirements of 2,100 Kcal/person. However, this production is not evenly distributed across households in Rwanda and varies according to wealth groups and livelihood zones. There are pockets of food shortages in some areas, especially in the chronically food-insecure Congo Nile Ridge and Southern Plateau food economy zones. The poorest households in these zones are facing a risk of moderate food insecurity, as they normally do not produce enough food and rely on the community for direct food assistance. Food shortages are also observed in Karangazi, Rwempasha, Rwimiyaga and Nyagatare sectors in Nyagatare District and Mpanga Sector in Kirehe District, where rains were late and have been erratic, and poor households have produced very little food. The quarantine due to an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) and the poor season-B food production make poor households in the Karangazi Sector of Nyagatare District highly food insecure, as they are not able to sell animals and animal products, which are main sources of income in the area, to purchase food and other essentials (Figure 1). These areas will require close monitoring by all food security partners, paying particular attention to the effectiveness of the existing coping mechanisms of the most vulnerable households.

Figure 2. Estimated energy availability (Kcal per person per day) from local food crop production, season 2007B FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MINAGRI Harvests Assessment

Season 2007B progress

According to the results of the MINAGRI-led harvest evaluation mission that took place from 11 to 25 June, 2007, energy from season 2007B national food crop production is 993,950 MT of cereals-equivalent (one cereal-equivalent corresponds to 3,225.32 Kcal, or the energy from 1 kg of maize). This level of production is 3 percent lower than season 2006B and 2 percent less than season 2005B, but 5 percent higher than the season B five-year average from 2002 to 2006.

The evaluation earmarked 10 districts out of 27 surveyed in which production will provide below 90 percent of the recommended amount of 2,100 Kcal/person/day (see orange and yellow areas in Figure 2). Nyamagabe, Nyaruguru and Nyagatare Districts have recorded the poorest crop performance. Nine districts have performed above the recommended level.

Compared to season 2006B, in terms of cereals-equivalent, the production of cereals decreased by 7 percent, with the highest decrease in sorghum (12 percent) due to the March/April dry spell; pulses decreased by 17 percent, with the highest decrease for beans (17 percent) due to lower moisture in the southern part of the country and excessive rains in the north; and banana production decreased by 5 percent. The production of roots and tubers has increased by 7 percent, but Irish potato production decreased by 25 percent due to lack of quality seed. For Rwanda as a whole, the amount of protein available from crop production is 42 g/person/day, which is 71 percent of the recommended amount of 59 g/person/day, and the amount of lipid available is 5.5 g/person/day, which is only 14 percent of the recommended amount of 40 g/person/day.

Food balance sheet

According to the food balance sheet (Figure 3), crops in season 2007B yielded 88 percent of the food requirements for the second half of 2007. Animal production normally contributes 3.5 percent of the requirements. Therefore 101,068 MT of cereals-equivalent (9 percent of the requirements) should be covered by imports. Commercial imports are estimated at 113,000 MT and food aid received or in pipeline at 28,000 MT of cereals-equivalent. The forecast therefore shows a surplus of 40,000 MT of cereals-equivalents.

Markets, trade and food access

Figure 4. Key food prices index on 41 markets in Rwanda, January 2006 - July 2007 (January 2006 = 100) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Note: The price index is an unweighted aggregate calculated from individual prices of sorghum, maize grain, maize flour, beans, cassava, cassava flour, sweet and Irish potato and bananas in 41 markets in Rwanda. Source: MIS/MINAGRI

Figure 5. Comparison of key food prices on 41 markets in Rwanda, July 2006, June and July 2007 (RwF/kg) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MIS/MINAGRI

are on average 13 percent higher, including substantial increases for beans by 43 percent, cassava by 22 percent and cassava flour by 19 (Figure 5).

The increase in beans prices at harvest time reflects lower production (decrease of 17 percent compared to season 2006B production). While beans prices decreased by 19 percent from May to July in 2006, they increased by 8 percent for the same period in 2007. Lower bean production is significant because beans account for about 20 percent of the protein in the diet of Rwandan households, and is likely to have a negative effect on nutrition as other protein sources, such as animal products, are expensive and not easily accessible to the poor.

High prices of staple foods restricts household food access, especially for poor households with limited access to land who depend on casual labor for income and market purchase for food. Poor agriculture laborers derive 60 percent of their income from labor (CFSVA 2006) and purchase the majority of their food, making them highly vulnerable to high price.

WFP Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) pipeline update

For August 2007 to July 2008, food requirements to meet needs are estimated at 25,937 MT for all commodities (Figure 6). For the period, the WFP pipeline has a cereals deficit of 6,402 MT. The opening balance of cereals plus scheduled arrivals will be enough for all interventions under the PRRO until the end of January 2008. Cereals will face a pipeline break by January, while CSB is already out of stock by early August 2007. Pledges for additional resources are required now to take into consideration lead times and enable the country office to continue to provide full rations to beneficiaries. Though there is a possibility of loans from within the region, additional resources are urgently needed for the operation to continue providing CSB to beneficiaries, mainly to refugees who rely substantially on the blend for consumption.