Two consecutive bumper harvests have resulted in a good overall food security situation. The 2006/07 agricultural season was the best on record, with maize production estimated at 3.44 million MT, 33.7 percent higher than the 2005/06 season harvest. As a result, good household food stocks have translated into reduced market demand for maize and consequently lower maize prices in the local markets than is usually the case for this time of the season.

Although household food security is generally good across the country, some areas need close monitoring (Table 1), as the worsening of some factors affecting food security would result in missing food entitlements for some households.

Imports and exports of the various crops continue through both formal and informal cross-border trade. Official maize exports to Zimbabwe are progressing well. Malawi has exported about 114,000 MT of the 400,000 MT of maize it plans to export to Zimbabwe.

General food security situation

Although the food security situation is generally favorable across the country, there are some areas where high vulnerability to food insecurity exists and close monitoring is required. Worsening economic conditions, such as reductions in cash crop prices and increases in maize prices, could push the food entitlements of some households below their minimum needs between August 2007 and April 2008. If this occurs, these households will require assistance to mitigate the effects of food insecurity.

Areas where populations are highly vulnerable to food insecurity this year include Nsanje, Chikwawa, Balaka, Mulanje and Machinga districts in the southern region, Mzimba and Karonga districts in the northern region and Ntchisi District in the central region (Table 1). The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) estimates that approximately 519,000 people are at risk of food insecurity should any of the conditions mentioned above deteriorate.

Seasonal timeline and critical events

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2006/07 Agricultural Production

The final agricultural production estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security in June 2007 show that maize production in the 2006/07 agricultural season is the highest on record (Figure 1). Maize production is estimated at 3.44 Million MT, an increase of 33.7 percent over the 2005/06 agricultural season - another good year - and almost double the last five-year average.

The increase in maize production over the previous season is attributed to a number of factors, including increased area planted, higher levels of input use (fertilizer and seeds) and favorable weather conditions. The area planted to maize increased by 4 percent from 1,620,493 to 1,686,422 hectares (Ha), in comparison to the previous year. Maize yields increased by a substantial 28 percent from 1,590 Kg/Ha to 2,043 Kg/Ha.

Figure 1. Comparison of maize production and maize requirements, MT   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Note: The graph compares maize production levels for each season against the average maize production for the past five seasons (2001/02 to 2005/06 seasons) and maize requirement for human consumption trends. The maize requirement does not include other uses such as seed and animal feed as is the case in the food balance sheet analysis. It is also based on the NSO population projected figures based on 1998 census and assumes a fixed 72.8 percent maize contribution to the total energy intake as used in the food balance sheet.

Government and various NGO input programs were the primary reason for increased use of improved seeds and fertilizer. The government’s input subsidy program was the most significant of these programs.

Since land is limited, the potential for increased maize and other crop production lies in increasing the yields. Yet, maize yield levels remain very low compared to their potential. The 2006/07 agricultural season figures show that the average hybrid maize yield ranged from 2,147 Kg/Ha in Shire Valley ADD to 3,338 Kg/Ha in Kasungu ADD compared to potential yields of up to 10,000 Kg/Ha. Composite maize yields ranged from 1,315 Kg/Ha in Shire Valley ADD to 2,333 Kg/Ha in Lilongwe ADD compared to potential yields of up 5,000 Kg/Ha. Local maize yields ranged from 844 Kg/Ha in Shire Valley ADD to 1,223 Kg/Ha in Lilongwe ADD against potential yield of up to 3,000 Kg/Ha.

Figure 2. Maize yield trends by variety of maize seed (kg per hectare) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3. Area planted by maize variety as a percentage of total area planted to maize

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Graphics: FEWS NET/Malawi; Source: MoAFS

Hybrid maize yields significantly more than composite and local maize (Figure 2). Greater adoption of hybrid maize would certainly increase production. Although the proportion of land put to hybrid maize has been increasing, the annual growth rate is very small, estimated at about 1 percent. At the same time composite maize, which is much higher yielding than local maize, is growing at 2 percent a year. Despite this slow change, there has been a significant shift in the overall area planted with each type of maize seed since 1990 (Figure 3). In the early 1990s, local maize accounted for almost 90 percent of the area planted, whereas in the last 2 to 3 years, about a third of the area planted to maize has been planted with each type of seed.

Malawi has experienced serious fluctuations in maize production since the beginning of the 1990s (see Figure 1). Serious food deficits were faced in 1991/92, 1993/94 and 2004/05, while surpluses were produced in 1998/99, 1999/2000, 2005/06 and 2006/07. While the immediate impact of this season’s good harvest will be improved food security, the fluctuations in maize production seen in the past are likely to continue to make Malawi highly vulnerable to food insecurity in the future, unless yields are increased more sustainability.

Markets, trade and prices

Formal and informal maize exports, as well as reduced informal imports, continue. Most significantly, Malawi plans to export 400,000 MT of maize to Zimbabwe. Already, about 114,085 MT of maize had been exported to Zimbabwe as of July 31, 2007, beating export targets.

Maize imports and exports also continue through informal cross-border trade, although informal imports have been lower than in recent years. A total of about 27,000 MT of maize was imported from April to July 2007, mostly from Mozambique. Malawi provides the most convenient market for maize from some parts of Mozambique, and thus despite the country’s maize surplus, trade continues. However, the level of maize imports from April to July 2007 was low, compared to about 40,000 MT during the same period in 2005 and 2006 (see Figure 4).

Maize exports through informal cross-border trade from April to July 2007 amounted to 1,766 MT, or 66 percent of the amount exported during the same period last year. About 80 percent of these exports went to Zambia, followed by Mozambique (12 percent) and Tanzania (8 percent). One possible reason why the informal exports are lower than during the same time last season is that most traders are selling the maize locally to the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) for export to Zimbabwe.

Figure 4. Monthly maize imports through informal cross-border trade, in MT

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Source: FEWS NET/Malawi

Maize prices remain relatively low compared to previous seasons. Maize prices in the local markets ranged from MK10.56/kg at Migowi market in Phalombe district to MK25.00/kg at Chilumba market in Karonga district. A majority of the local markets registered maize prices below MK20.00/kg. Out of the 68 markets for which data was available, only 6 markets registered maize prices ranging from MK20.00/kg to MK25.00/kg.

Meanwhile, ADMARC is only purchasing maize from their main depots at MK17.00/kg. Unfortunately most of these depots are in urban centers, which leaves most of the farmers in the rural areas with no alternative market except the private traders. With many local markets registering maize prices less than the MK17.00/kg, the prices paid by traders for maize are even lower. These low prices are having a negative impact on maize farmers’ incomes. Table 2 provides the current sales prices private traders are offering in the local markets for their maize.