FEWS NET Monthly Report for Nicaragua covering the period Nov 2006 to Dec 2006.

NICARAGUA Food Security Update December/January 2006/07

ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY

 

Summary and current hazards

The food security situation in the country remains stable.  Poor rural households are earning income from the sale of labor in coffee and sugar cane plantations.  Such income enables those picking coffee to have adequate access to basic food through February 2007, and those cutting sugarcane through April.  This income alleviates the impact of the postrera harvest losses produced by the El Ni?o phenomenon.  Even though these losses are not evident at a national level, they can greatly impact the poor rural households.  The main hazard to food security continues to be potential rainfall deficits caused be the El Ni?o phenomenon, which in turn could lead to losses in the upcoming apante and primera harvests in 2007.

Seasonal calendar

Coffee and sugar cane activities and their food security implications

The country's food security situation remains stable for the poorest households despite the losses registered during the postrera season, as the income of a high percentage of these families comes from the sale of labor in coffee and sugar cane activities that started in November.  This work ensures a minimum income to provide for their basic needs through February 2007 for coffee activities and through April for sugarcane activities.

The main areas for coffee production are located in Jinotega, Matagalpa and in areas close to Managua (see Map 1), where between 270,000 and 300,000 people are currently employed to pick coffee.  About 67,500 MT of production is expected for this harvest, 25 percent lower than last cycle's production.  This decrease is in line with the ?bianualidad? phenomenon, which indicates that after a fairly big harvest ? such as that of the previous season ? there is a reduction in the following cycle.  This behavior is normal in coffee production, which continues to show a good productive national average in comparison to other harvests.

Map 1: Main coffee producing areas, according to agrarian zones

Smallholder coffee zone	Livestock and coffee zone	Pacific coffee zone
FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: MFEWS

Despite the good average productive and resulting economic situation for coffee producers, the agriculture workers' salary conditions are inadequate.  The average salary paid to a coffee picker is US $0.80 (15 cordobas) for each bucket picked (1 bucket = 20 pounds) plus food; workers pick an average of 5 buckets a day, which is equivalent to four dollars of income per day.  This year's salary shows an increase over last year's pay of 10 cordobas per bucket, but still the remuneration is lower than that paid in other countries.  Encouraged by the opportunity of better salaries abroad, many workers migrate to Costa Rica and El Salvador where they are paid an average of US $1.50 (27 Cordobas) per bucket plus food.  This situation is causing that more and more coffee pickers to migrate for jobs, which could result in a potential labor crisis in the future that could affect the picking of coffee harvests.

Income from the sale of labor for coffee activities represents more than 50 percent of a poor household's income, almost half of which is used to purchase food, and this food access is ensured during the coffee harvest.  Various problems affecting the food security of poor families may arise after the harvest, however.  About one third of household food comes from their own production, which may be at risk due to the extended drought caused by the El Ni?o phenomenon. Poor households may thus depend on the purchase of food to provide for the supplies generated by the harvest as of the beginning of April.

The sugarcane harvest is another activity that generates demand for agricultural labor and thus generates income during this period.  More than 90 percent of the productive zones are located in the country's Pacific area (see Map 2) and approximately 40,000 persons work in this activity.

Map 2: Main sugar cane production zones ? plain zones and inland irrigated valleys

Source: MFEWS

Sugarcane production is estimated to increase to about 500,000 MT, 14 percent higher than in the previous cycle, as the planted area was increased to 44,000 hectares.  Almost 50 percent of this production will be exported to the United States and could reach 100 million dollars, 40 million more than last year.  The increases in the export volumes will not necessarily impact the agriculture workers' salary, though.

A sugarcane worker receives an average of US$0.80 (14 to 15 Cordobas) per ton and they harvest an average of 6 tons per day, thus ensuring an income for almost 4 to 5 months.  The household economy of coffee agriculture workers and that of the sugarcane workers is very similar.  Nearly half of household income is used to purchase food, and one third of their food comes from own production.  Therefore, the effects of the extension of the dry season caused by the El Ni?o phenomenon imply an increase household dependency on purchased food as well.  Nevertheless, families in this zone have more employment opportunities in other agriculture activities, such as peanut and sesame seed, through which they can overcome these effects.

The situation of agricultural labor in Nicaragua is deteriorating due to an instable production system and weak markets, encouraging migration to urban areas or out of the country to Costa Rica or El Salvador.

Climate perspective

Inadequate rainfall has continued since August in most of the country, typical behavior when El Ni?o conditions are present.  During the first ten days of November it rained more than usual, but during the last ten days a wave of cold air arrived, which generated strong north winds and established the beginning of the dry season in the Pacific regions and to the west of the central and northern regions.

Rains in December, January and February for the Pacific, northern and central regions are likely to be normal to below normal (see brown area in Map 3).  The effects could be an extended dry season, which would delay the primera harvest and worsen food security for poor households that are primarily subsistence staple cereal producers.  The availability of water for consumption and irrigated vegetable garden production could also be at risk.

Map 3: Climate Perspective for Nicaragua, December 2006 to February 2007

Note: Brown indicates higher probability of below normal accumulated rain (B); gray indicates higher probability of normal or above normal accumulated rain (N-A).
Source: XIX Central America Climate Forum, 2006, INETER

Normal to above-normal rain levels are expected in eastern and southeastern Jinotega, Matagalpa, Boaco and Chontales departments, and in the Atlantic Autonomous Regions (gray shade in the map).  These moderate rains occur due to local climatic conditions that are characteristic of the December to February period in the country and in years influenced by the El Ni?o.  An active season of cold fronts usually develops, generating rainfall in the mentioned zones and causing a temperature drop.

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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