Executive summary

Figure 1: Current estimated food security conditions (March 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2: Most-likely scenario: Estimated food security conditions (July 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3: Worst-case scenario: Estimated food security conditions (July 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• Food security has improved in most pastoral regions in Somalia, due to good pasture and water conditions resulting from above-average rains in late 2006. However, flooding along riverine areas and restricted movement of people, livestock, food and humanitarian assistance in the southern regions as a result of border closure, trade restrictions and the prevailing conflict in peri-urban Mogadishu are causing localized high and extreme levels of food insecurity. One million people currently need humanitarian assistance.

• Food security conditions are expected to improve through July 2007 in northern and central Somalia. Normal Gu rains from April to May will maintain the good rangeland conditions, and limited conflict and civil insecurity and a control of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) will enable continued pastoral recovery. Renewed flooding is likely along the Juba and Shabelle rivers in June, though, and extreme food insecurity is expected to continue in parts of the south due to civil insecurity and restricted inter-regional and cross-border trade. As a result of new displacement from conflict in peri-urban Mogadishu, the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance is expected to increase to about 1.1 million. Riverine farmers require maize and cowpea seeds before the April rains, and flood-protection activities are needed in flood-prone areas before June.

• In the worst-case scenario, RVF will spread further, conflict will escalate, and flooding will be even heavier along the Juba and Shabelle rivers as a result of heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands. The movement of people, livestock and goods will be restricted, limiting access to food and sources of income and restricting humanitarian access. Livestock export bans and miscarriages related to RVF will further reduce pastoralist income. The number of people requiring humanitarian assistance will increase up to 1.5 million.

Current food security situation

The performance of the Deyr minor rainy season from October to December 2006 was exceptionally good for pastoral and rainfed farming areas in Somalia. As a result, food security has improved in pastoral areas in the northern and central regions and parts of Hiran, where the population was highly food insecure during most of 2006. Moderate levels of food insecurity still persist in these areas, following several years of recurrent drought and conflict that have weakened livelihoods.

However, localized areas of high and extreme levels of food insecurity persist, particularly in the Juba Valley, Gedo and Hiran regions. The above-average Deyr rains in late 2006 caused flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, which destroyed the crops of riverine communities that depend on farming and related activities for their livelihoods. Additionally, the conflict in the south in late 2006 and early 2007 restricted the movement of people, livestock and goods, limiting household access to markets and food. The border between Kenya and Somalia closed on January 3 as a result of the conflict, further restricting the movement of humanitarian supplies to affected populations in the south. The occurrence of RVF in the pastoral district of Afmadow in Lower Juba has further increased food insecurity of affected pastoralists by decreasing herd size through livestock miscarriages, thereby weakening pastoralists’ livelihood. Child malnutrition rates also remain high in these areas. Recently, increased conflict in and around Mogadishu has decreased food security by restricting trade and displacing people.

The number of people in need of assistance is currently about one million, a decrease from the 1.8 million in need of assistance during the Gu season of 2006. Most people needing assistance are currently receiving food aid, and the pipeline through May 2007 is very strong.

Most-likely food security scenario

In the most-likely scenario through July 2007, food security conditions are expected to generally improve, particularly in northern and central Somalia. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts the Gu rains from April to June to be normal, which will maintain the current good rangeland conditions. In this scenario, RVF will be contained, preventing a livestock export ban from the Gulf States, and conflict will be limited to localized areas.

The good rangeland conditions will enable further pastoralist recovery from the recurrent years of compound shocks. The movement of cereals and livestock within regions and across borders will improve, increasing household access to food and sources of income.

Localized areas of high and extreme levels of food insecurity will continue to persist. About 100,000 newly displaced urban poor in peri-urban Mogadishu will be highly food insecure due to loss of income and increased food prices as a result of the increased urban conflict. The Gu rains will likely cause increased flooding along river valleys in June, once the rainwater flows downstream from the Ethiopian highlands, and maize prices will likely increase above their already high levels in riverine areas as household grain reserves are depleted. The flooding and high prices will increase the food insecurity of riverine populations, especially during the hunger season from May to June. Additionally, the closure of the Kenya-Somalia border will continue to disrupt cross-border trade and population movement, likely through June 2007, which will extend the current levels of extreme food insecurity, particularly in the Middle and Lower Juba regions.

Several response options will be necessary in the coming months to support the 1 million people already in need of humanitarian assistance and the 100,000 displaced by conflict around Mogadishu. Continued protection and support to civilians affected by conflict in the south, including the establishment of safe corridors safe havens and increasing access for humanitarian agencies to provide food, medicine, water and shelter, are urgently needed. Livestock vaccinations and provision of animal treatment against RVF in high-risk areas of Juba valley is also necessary. To enable planting during the Gu season, seeds (primarily maize and cowpea) should be provided to farmers in riverine areas immediately before the April rains. River embankment and other flood-protection activities are also necessary before the moderate flooding ensues in June.

Worst-case food security scenario

In the worst-case scenario, food security will decrease significantly throughout Somalia. RVF will spread throughout the country in this scenario, leading to an export ban on livestock products from the Gulf States. Conflict will escalate in peri-urban Mogadishu and potentially parts of the central regions, which will increase the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and lead to increased sea piracy. The governments will likely increase tariffs in Mogadishu, which will restrict port activity and affect the import/export capacity of traders. Additionally, flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers will be even heavier than in the most-likely scenario, as a result of heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands.

As a result of these conditions, access to food and income will decrease throughout the country, and humanitarian assistance will be restricted. The increased conflict and disease-control measures will restrict trade and the movement of people and goods, which will restrict the access to food and income, especially for pastoral and agropastoral communities in Juba Valley and Gedo that rely on cross-border cattle trade as a main source of income. The closure of livestock markets and the restriction of cross-border trade will further impact pastoralist income, which is dependent on animal sales. Disease-related livestock miscarriages will reduce effective herd size, which will have a long-term impact on pastoralist livelihoods.

Additionally, the heavy flooding along the riverine areas in June will destroy the standing off-season crop as well as the Gu crop, which will extend the hunger season and increase food insecurity beyond July/August when the harvest usually comes for riverine communities.

The number of people requiring humanitarian assistance will increase to about 1.5 million in this scenario. Continued food aid will be needed, especially for the newly displaced urban poor and the flood-affected riverine communities that were already highly food insecure. Recovery assistance will also be required for infrastructure and irrigation-system rehabilitation and livestock restocking.