Figure 1. Current food security   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Angola.

Households in most of Angola are generally food secure, due the favorable availability of food that includes reserves from nacas, the continuing harvests of cassava and sweet potato, early harvests of maize and the sale of imported maize flour, rice and pasta. Owing to favorable crop and pasture conditions this season, these households are expected to remain food secure though at least November 2007 and until February 2008 if there is adequate nacas planting in July and August. Food availability and access on local markets could gradually improve during the next four months of the dry period as incomes improve with the sale of crop products and as road conditions improve. However, households in certain areas (see figure 1) are moderately to highly food insecure, owing to a variety of factors including poor harvests in 2006, an extended dry spell in the earlier part of the rainy season (as in Cunene) and intense, destructive rains in the latter part (as in Huambo, Benguela, Zaire, Uige, Namibe and Moxico). In southern Uige, cassava mosaic virus threatens the food security of up to 145,000 households for whom cassava is a key staple food and income source. While generally favorable for crop and pasture production, rains in March and April have caused significant damage to roads and crops. The damage to infrastructure has inhibited the marketing of food products, raising their cost to consumers, and has limited access to income earning opportunities. If the end of season rains do not improve the availability of pasture and water in southern Angola, distress sales of livestock are expected, which could deplete household assets and undermine the livestock market. Food prices in Angola have generally been declining or have remained stable in March and April. However, high regional maize prices due to the low production forecasts in South Africa may also constrain the purchasing power of urban households that depend on markets typically supplied with maize imported from South Africa.

Significant events timeline

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Current food security concerns

There are several areas in Angola where food security conditions are not currently satisfactory and, in some cases, could deteriorate in the months ahead. Households in Cunene (southwestern Angola) currently have limited or no reserves of cereals following the poor harvests of 2006. Because of a prolonged dry spell in the current season, this season’s crop yields are also expected to be below average. Livestock raising households in Cunene have already turned to the sale of livestock and livestock products to meet their food needs, contrary to normal years when such sales normally start in September/October. Nomadic communities such as the Vatua and Koissan are already under stress and have turned to the consumption of wild products, moving to places where access to wild foods is still favorable.

The extended dry spell will reduce harvests in southern Angola, specifically in Cunene. Some southern districts could become dependent on the flow of sorghum and millet from surplus districts of Huila and Cuando Cubango and on imports from Namibia. Unless agro-pastoral households are assisted to prevent them from selling livestock in distress in order to purchase cereals they would otherwise have been able to produce, food insecurity could persist in Cunene until May 2008.

Households in southern Uige (northwestern Angola), mostly in Cangola district, are also moderately to highly food insecure due the negative impact of mosaic virus attack on cassava production, a key staple and income source in this area. While the government, NGOs and farmers have started implementing some key interventions to control the cassava mosaic virus, any improvement in production will only be evident in the following year. The most affected population in southern Uige may need some food assistance. Without comprehensive control measures, this cassava virus could create a situation of moderate to high food insecurity for about 145,000 households in southern Uige.

Households in southwestern Huambo and eastern Benguela (central Angola) are moderately to highly food insecure due to a combination of factors, including poor harvests last season due to drought and heavy rains in the current season that have damaged infrastructure.

Following intense and destructive rains in Uige, interventions in food aid, construction material and kitchen kits by the Ministry of Assistance and Social Reinsertion (MINARS) have assisted affected households.

WFP in collaboration with MINARS and Civil Protection Services has distributed food aid composed of maize meals, pulses, vegetable oil, salt, sugar and CSB to over 2,500 flood victims in the district of Alto Zambeze (Moxico).

Although localized, the damage from the intense March and April rains could affect food access for both producers and consumers. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINADER), there was an active market for roots and sweet potatoes in the country in February/March 2007. However, in Uige, Namibe, Zaire, Malange and Moxico, intense rains in March and April not only reduced bean and groundnut crop yields but also damaged the road networks, affecting the transport of food. This damage could affect food availability in markets within deficit areas that will depend on imported foods or food from surplus areas in Angola. In Uige, for example, trucks can only travel at an average speed of about 15km/h from the provincial capital to the districts’ markets, while the district of Curoca in Cunene receives less than two deliveries every fortnight.

While food prices are no higher than normal, the limited availability of income earning opportunities has negatively affected purchasing power of poor households in food-deficit districts. Only a small proportion of households in these areas are able to generate income through available opportunities, examples of which include formal work in cities, trading, sale of livestock in the south, sale of forest products in Cunene and extraction of wood in Uige.

Although this year’s harvest is normal and expected to exceed last year’s harvest, Angola still faces a 50 percent deficit in cereal requirements, and will have to import about 750,000 MT of maize, rice and wheat. The high price of maize in the world market - currently twice what it was last year during this period - due to low production forecasts in Southern Africa may induce price increases for imported maize. Poor household food security in urban areas could be compromised if the SAFEX (South Africa Future Exchange) price continues to climb from of R1,481/ton in March to the projected price of R2,032/ton in August.

Returnees and vulnerable populations such as the Koissan and Vatua in Cunene and the Mukuisse in Namibe could continue to be affected by intense rains, drought or crop diseases unless appropriate programs such as agricultural support during winter period as well as food aid are implemented to improve their living conditions and food security. In districts in southeastern Huambo and western Benguela, such as Ukuma, Longojo, Tchindjenji, Ganda and Cubal, the volume of returnees has been high, but last season’s harvests were poor, due to drought and intense rains this season that have damaged bean and maize crops.

Seasonal forecast and performance

Figure 2. Maize crop conditions as of the 2nd dekad of April, 2007, extended through the end of season FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS. Crop conditions measured using the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index.

Normal rains have been reported in the majority of provinces, even in Malange, where an early start to the rains in October was followed by a dry spell in January and February. Most districts have received excellent rainfall during March and April, and despite localized flooding and intense rain, above-average harvests are expected to start in May. The Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) indicates that maize crop conditions are favorable and should remain so for the remainder of the season, except in some coastal and south-western areas (figure 2).

However, intense rains that have been reported during March and April in localized districts of Uige, south-western Huambo, eastern Moxico, northern Namibe, Zaire and Luanda will negatively impact the production of crops such as beans and groundnuts. Nevertheless, the abundance of moisture due to excessive rains should create favorable conditions for a good flood recession crop and nacas production, which will start in June 2007.

Figure 3. Number of rain days and maximum consecutive dry days in the past 30 days as of April 26 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS

In most districts of Cunene, except in Cuvelai, drought conditions have been present for much of the recent rainy season following the early onset of rains in September/October 2006. The WRSI in figure 2 indicates very poor to normal maize crop conditions. Figure 3 suggests that some southern districts have had dry spells lasting more than 20 days, which could further affect yields. The coastal area of Angola is known for its aridness, and its agriculture depends on irrigation or flood recession moisture.

Production outlook

The majority of key informers agree that current food reserves can last up to May 2007, after which they should be supplemented by cereal harvests. In most of the country, favorable access to inputs and mechanization services, combined with normal cumulative rainfall for the season has improved prospects for good harvests beginning in May 2007. The positive harvest prospects support a favorable food security scenario through November 2007, and this could be extended to February 2008 if smallholders are supported to cultivate on nacas from July to August 2007. Household incomes are also expected to improve with the start of the marketing season in the second half of May or early June. Food deficit districts will also have the opportunity of buying food through traders as the harvest and marketing season for cassava, cereals and beans approach.

The projected harvest may be higher than that of last year in most districts while equal to or slightly below that of last year in districts where there have been intense rains, drought, diseases and/or pest infestations. Apart from rains, other factors have led to an increase in the area of land cultivated and an increase in yields.

The Gabinete de Segurança Alimentar (GSA) estimates that the area of land cultivated has increased by more than 1.7 percent this year. The growth in the number of producers, the increase in the average size of fields cultivated per household and the availability of land in all districts except close to cities has contributed to the increase in the area of land cultivated. This increase is more accentuated for sweet potato fields (7.6 percent), with millet/sorghum (5.4 percent) and maize and cassava (3 percent) fields following. However, a decrease of 37.5 percent is estimated for rice, and of 8.8 percent for beans and of 5 percent for groundnuts, partly due to the intensity of the rains. Rice cultivation, in particular, was affected by floods in eastern Moxico and by the disincentive because of poor promotion of marketing and processing activities for rice.

Distribution schemes for farming implements by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINADER) and NGOs have helped more than 65 percent of smallholders increase the area of land cultivated. Increase in the use of animal traction and agricultural mechanization have also contributed to this growth in area cultivated.

The availability of seed and fertilizers and, where present, normal levels of rainfall have positively affected yields. Although there has been a shortage of fertilizers in Huambo, the majority of the districts that MINADER supported have fertilizers in store that have not been used because of poor adoption. Proper extension support could help smallholders to use these fertilizers for nacas and vegetable cropping to improve food security.

However, yields and area cultivated did not reach their full potential in all areas. In more isolated areas, the lack of adequate road networks prevented the government and NGOs from providing support to farmers in the form of seeds, fertilizers and land preparation services, while also limiting the role of markets in providing agricultural inputs.

The spread of cassava mosaic virus (known locally as cassava cholera) in Uige and, to a lesser extent in other northern provinces, is severely affecting cassava yields. Currently, eight out of 15 districts of Uige reported alarming cases of devastation to cassava crops by mosaic virus. Interventions by the government and NGOs to control the virus may stabilize the situation in the 2007/08 cropping season.

In Cabinda, Black Sigatoka is affecting crops of cooking banana.

Livestock

Animal body conditions have been good in March and April following the early onset of rains that provided water and supported pasture growth. Above normal rains in these months improved the availability of water and pastures for animals in most arid districts of Namibe. These late and intense rains, although not favorable for crop growth, may support favorable pasture and water availability for animals during the winter period.

There are no reports of serious animal epidemics. Livestock health status will improve with the coming MINADER vaccination targeting about 17 percent of the country’s livestock against most common diseases.

Key informers suggest that the livestock population has been increasing since the end of the civil war. Individual efforts, microfinance assistance by NGOs such as ADRA in Malange and livestock repopulation programs by government and NGOs have positively contributed to this increase. While livestock are gradually being restocked in northern and central Angola following the civil war, improved marketing of livestock and animal products has made livestock farming a very lucrative activity in the south. Animal repopulation programs and interventions to improve marketing and processing of livestock products could continue to improve the food security of livestock raising communities.

Fishing typically begins to gain importance in April, and coastal communities and those close to important fishing areas will experience an improvement in their food security due increased fishing during the dry period while also benefiting from recent harvests in agricultural districts. Fishing in ponds that will result from receding floods may ease the negative effects of floods on food security in eastern districts of Moxico. Support in processing and storing fish products for later consumption and marketing can significantly improve the role of fishing in promoting food and livelihood security.