Flooding, cattle raiding tensions threaten food security

Figure 1. Areas of concern in southern Sudan   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Localized flooding following heavy rains in early July has increased river water levels in parts of Unity and Upper Nile states, located in the Nile–Sobat River and Eastern Flood Plains respectively, and caused a number of people to relocate to higher grounds (Figure 1). Disruptions of natural drainage channels have caused additional flooding in other areas, such as Renk. The Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), UN agencies and NGOs are preparing to assess the magnitude of impact of these floods. Emergency food and non-food interventions have started in some affected areas.

Expected negative impacts of the floods include:

• Temporary relocation or displacement of households;
• A potential extension of the May to August hunger season;
• Crop losses and subsequent yield reductions;
• Reduced milk productivity by livestock, due to immediate lack of access to suitable pasture attributed to excessive and prolonged wet conditions; and
• Delayed commencement of fishing and other livelihood activities.

However, positive impacts can also be expected, though these are not likely to become evident until after floods. Positive impacts of the flooding could include significantly increased access to fish and water plants, abundant pastures and increased milk production and opportunities for recessional agriculture in some lowland areas. Besides ongoing flood-response interventions, intensified monitoring of flood levels remains an urgent priority between July and September, particularly in the flood plains and Nile-Sobat River Zones, as flood levels will determine the performance of crops and other food production systems that will influence food security during 2008.

The July floods have increased environmental concerns over potential widespread water contamination from toxic effluents emitted by oil-drilling activities in northern Unity State. Exposure to oil contaminants poses several risks to animal and human health, including skin and eye irritation, chemically-induced pneumonia, headaches and mental disturbances and chronic lung disease. Prolonged or continued exposure to these contaminants could result in livestock deaths, as well as contamination or death of fish and edible water plants – three significant sources of food in these areas. As of early June, there have been no assessments of the negative impacts of oil contamination on human and livestock health in the area. It is critical that the GoSS, UN agencies and NGOs that are preparing to assess the magnitude and of impact of ongoing floods also assess the magnitude of the spread of any contaminants and their impact on humans and animals.

Tensions persist over cattle raids and livestock killings by Toposa pastoralists conducted in May against Didinga agro-pastoralists in Budi County. Following these raids, Didinga leaders and civilians are demanding that the GoSS immediately disarm Toposa pastoralists, investigate the killings, compensate relatives of victims, respect original borders established from 1927 to 1956, establish effective security forces in affected areas and return Natinga, New Site and New Cush areas to the Didinga community and administration before November 2007. The Didinga have also demanded that the Toposa withdraw their animals from Didinga territory (Budi County – areas of New Cush, New Site, Natinga, Lauro, Lotholia and Ngatuba), which has serious implications on Toposa’s access to grazing land. This could spark a new wave of conflict between the Didinga and Toposa. The demand for return of specific areas to Didinga community control could also trigger an upsurge in long-running historical conflicts, as the Didinga community believes the attacks on them are motivated by the presence of precious minerals and good grazing and water access on their land.

It is critical that the GoSS prioritize addressing the above concerns, as they have serious negative livelihood implications on both communities. Escalating conflict between these groups could result in a series of immediate, negative effects, including lack of access to dry-season grazing and water areas, increases in livestock raids and decreases in agricultural production (among the Didinga). An upsurge in conflict between these two groups also has the potential to severely disrupt ongoing peace and security initiatives among pastoral groups, limit local trade and exchange mechanisms and inhibit the movement of households (such as migration to and from dry-season grazing areas). Disarmament would improve security in these zones, promote sharing of grazing and water sources that are essential for livestock (the main source of food in these areas) and improve important trade mechanisms between pastoral and agro-pastoral groups. Extensive disarmament activities were conducted in other parts of southern Sudan last year, but they did not include pastoralist groups. Accelerated disarmament measures should also be taken among these populations.

Attacks by the LRA and other armed groups remain a threat to food security in the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountains livelihoods zones. Despite a decline of LRA attacks in the last month, the likelihood of continued attacks remains until peace negotiations between the LRA and the Ugandan Government that are currently underway reach successful resolution. LRA attacks in Tambura, Yambio, Maridi and Magwi earlier this year reduced hunting and honey collection and disrupted cultivation of farmland, decreasing affected communities’ access to important food and income sources. Successful peace negotiations between the LRA and the Ugandan government, as well as disarmament of other armed groups in southern Sudan, are therefore key to improved food security and post-war recovery in affected areas.