FEWS NET Monthly Report for S. Sudan covering the period Oct 2006 to Nov 2006.

SOUTHERN SUDAN FOOD SECURITY UPDATE NOVEMBER 2006

ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY

With inputs from NPA, SC-UK, Tear Fund and WFP

Summary and implications

All indications point to an overall successful 2006 agricultural season in Southern Sudan and adequate access to off-farm food sources for the coming dry season.  More conclusive projections will follow from the WFP-led Annual Needs and Livelihoods Assessment (ANLA), for which final results are expected around mid-December, as well as the October Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) and the forthcoming Livelihoods Analysis Forum (LAF) scheduled for the first week of December 2006.  Attention should now turn to contingency planning for mass returns of refugees and the internally displaced to Southern Sudan in 2007.

The main agricultural season of the Western Flood Plains, Eastern Flood Plains and Nile-Sobat Rivers Livelihood Zones ended in September.  Despite localized production shortfalls caused by flooding, dry spells and civil insecurity, the harvest performed better than in 2005.  Further south, early reports suggest that the harvests beginning in the Greenbelt, Ironstone and Hills and Mountain Livelihood Zones also improved over last year.  The above normal October-December rains should improve access to non-farm food sources during the dry season (e.g., fish, wild foods and livestock products).  Consequently most households are expected to be food secure until at least April 2007.  Current areas of concern include Juba due to ongoing insecurity, Zeraf Island in the Nile-Sobat Zone due to militia activities, Waat, Dirol, Wiror and Nyirol Counties in the Eastern Flood Plains Zone due to local conflicts and sometimes militia activities and the Western Flood Plains Zone (i.e.  parts Rumbek, Yirol, Tonj and Gogrial) where interethnic conflict persists.  Reports at the end of the month indicated that fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Sudan People's Liberation Army in Malakal town in Shilluk County between November 28 and December 1 left an unknown number of people dead and tensions running high.

The post-conflict era will shortly enter its third year.  Planning for, and monitoring of, the returns of refugees and the internally displaced to Southern Sudan poses particular challenges, given the often spontaneous (i.e., not organized by a government or international agency) nature of these population movements and their geographic scale.  Inter-agency contingency planning for returnees at the start of 2007 is essential to ensure the effective and timely return of displaced populations and livelihoods-based reintegration programming, and to mitigate the effects of returns on food security and livelihoods in local or host communities.

Seasonal timeline

Critical factors to monitor from December 2006 to March 2007:
1.  The June-Nov and Sep-Dec crop harvests in select areas (see map to right)
2.  Livestock, pasture and water conditions and associated population movements
3.  Organized and informal population returns
4.  Access to early dry season off farm food sources such as wild foods and fish
5.  Trade and market activities

Figure 1: Agricultural seasons in Southern Sudan

1.  April-July and September-December ? Two agricultural seasons
2.  Pastoral ? Limited single-season areas
3.  June-September ? One agricultural season
4.  June-November ? One agricultural season
5.  Mixed seasons ? Areas with two seasons in highlands and one season in lowlands

Current hazard summary

• Field reports suggest that large-scale spontaneous returns of refugees and the internally displaced are likely from January-June 2007, in advance of the November 2007 population census.
• Eastern Flood Plains remains a concern following the flooding-induced production shortfalls, compounded by recurrent local conflict and attacks and cattle raiding by armed groups from Pibor County.
• Deteriorating civil security in the Hills and Mountains Zone continues to constrain population movements, inhibit trade flows and prevent household access to food and labor markets.

Food security summary

Across Southern Sudan, households are supplementing recently harvested sorghum, groundnuts and sesame with milk, fish and wild vegetables.  In the Western Flood Plains Livelihood Zone, households are relying on sorghum supplemented by groundnuts, sesame, fish, milk and wild vegetables.  The same foods are being consumed in the Eastern Flood Plains Zone with the exception of groundnuts and sesame.  In the Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone, the harvest is being supplemented by fish, milk and water based plants.  Meanwhile, first season crops continue to sustain households in the Hills and Mountains Zone and the Greenbelt Zone as they await the second season harvest of sorghum, sesame, groundnuts, sweet potatoes and cowpeas, due in December.  Short cycle sorghum, which was harvested in September, is being supplemented by the incoming long cycle sorghum, sesame and groundnuts in the Ironstone Plateau Zone.  Milk, meat, and ghee supplemented by small amounts of sorghum dominate the food basket in the Pastoral/Arid Zone.  Here, households may be sourcing additional cereals from the neighboring Hills and Mountains Zone, namely Budi County, or as far as Kenya's maize-producing Rift Valley region where maize has matured. 

Rainfall: June-November rainfall and crop and pasture performance

Cumulative rainfall performance during June-September was normal in Southern Sudan, except in the northeast and extreme south where rainfall was slightly less than normal.  Despite localized occurrences of erratic and inadequate rainfall, the 2006 June-September rains performed better than in 2005, especially in the eastern half of Southern Sudan.  June-September rains play a large part in determining crop performance and availability of water based food sources (e.g., fish and river-based wild plants) throughout Southern Sudan. 

Rains continued into October and November, and were particularly critical for second season crops in the bimodal areas of the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountains Zones and long cycle crop growing areas such as the southern Western Flood Plains and the Ironstone Plateau (see Figure 1).  Rains from October 1 ? November 20 in most areas exceeded the long term average (Figure 2) and 2005 levels (Figure 3).  The above normal rains improved crop performance, especially in the June-November cropping area (i.e., Ironstone Plateau and southern Western Flood Plains) and the September-December cropping area (i.e., Greenbelt and Hills and Mountains).  The harvest in these zones will extend from late November until late January.  Figure 4 illustrates that vegetation conditions were between average and above normal in most areas as of November 10.  Given continued above normal rains, it is likely that vegetation conditions at the end of November are better than those illustrated in Figure 4.

Figure 2: October 1?November 20, 2006 as percent of long term average (normal) rainfall

Source: NOAA/USGS; Graphics: FEWS NET

Figure 3: Comparison between 2006 and 2005 October 1-November 20 rainfall

Source: NOAA/USGS; Graphics: FEWS NET

Figure 4: Vegetation conditions as of 10 November 2006

Source: SPOT Image Corporation

Above normal rainfall also ensured sufficient pasture and browse during the dry season (December 2006-May 2007).  This is especially critical for the Western Flood Plains and Pastoral Zones, where conflict over grazing frequently occurs when pasture is limited.  Improved vegetation conditions tend to reduce the need for migration in search of water and pasture and, as a result, reduce conflict over these natural resources.

Food security updates by livelihood zone

Figure 5: Livelihood zones and counties in Southern Sudan


Western Flood Plains Zone

In the north of the zone, the main harvest of sorghum and sesame concluded in October, and the groundnut harvest was extended into November.  Generally, crops performed better in the highlands than in the lowlands. 

In the south of the zone, the main harvest will extend from November to December.  Fair harvests are expected following improved rains in October and November.  Non farm food sources (especially fish, wild foods and livestock) are expected to perform well due to good rains and water availability.

The latest updates from Aweil West County indicate that a dry spell in June-July resulted to loss of crops.  This combined with pest infestations reduced yields.  Fortunately, despite the dry spell and water logging following heavy rains in August, lowland sorghum production appears to have been unaffected.  Reports from WFP assessment teams indicate that many households are now resettling in areas that were deserted during the many years of war.  These are mainly lowland areas and areas around a railway line that was often used by militia.  The January 2005 peace agreement brought an end to that insecurity and enabled resettlement of the area. 

Aweil West County hosts an unknown number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from neighboring war-torn Darfur.  Darfurians also fled to neighboring Raga County, normally a surplus crop producing area, where harvests are reportedly good.  The return of the Darfurian IDPs to South Darfur is not expected anytime soon, given the ongoing conflict in the region.  However, the host community in Aweil West County has been reluctant to allow IDPs to cultivate land, because of the perceived risk of encouraging permanent settlement. 

Harvest of short cycle sorghum has concluded in parts of Aweil Centre County, and a ratoon harvest (sorghum stalk re-growth after first harvest) is expected in December.  Sorghum, groundnut and sesame production ranged from normal to above normal in the highlands, but were poor in the lowlands due to heavy rains.  Roads linking Aroyo and Aweil town markets were repaired after having been cut off by rivers and rains between August and October.  Restored passability of the roads and onset of the harvest contributed to price reductions (e.g., the price of sorghum has declined by 30-50 percent since October).  However, livestock prices remain high due to rising demand from recently paid civil servants, purchasing animals to restock herds and repay pending bride wealth. 

In Aweil South County, updates from Tear Fund suggest a poor harvest due to excessive floods this year.  The current price of sorghum is reportedly three times higher than at the same time last year.  However, groundnut harvests were good.  Though grown by a small segment of the population, rice also performed better than last year.

In Twic County, although early rains found farmers unprepared, favorable June-September rains led to good crop performance, particularly in highland areas.  In neighboring Gogrial County, flooding negatively affected lowland crops, but production was good in the highlands.  Interethnic conflict earlier this year displaced an unknown number of households.  Insecurity also interrupted cultivation activities of some of the remaining non-displaced households.  Reports tentatively estimate that up to 20 percent of the county's population may have been affected by the insecurity.

Mixed crop conditions are reported in Tonj County following good rains in some parts and poor rains in others.  In Rumbek and Cuibet Counties, good crop performance for both long cycle sorghum and groundnuts is expected.

It should be noted that groundnut production and the contribution of groundnuts to the diet throughout the Western Flood Plains Zone have often been underestimated, yet they play a critical role in the food basket especially when sorghum performance is poor.

Eastern Flood Plains Zone

Above normal rains caused water logging and flooding of farms in the south of the zone.  Field reports indicate that many counties, including Pibor, Pochalla, Diror, Wuror and Nyirol suffered localized crop damage.  This is further confirmed by June-September 2006 satellite data which indicated above normal rainfall in the east of Southern Sudan, where these counties are located.

Fortunately, non-agricultural food sources will offset these localized shortfalls during the December-April dry season.  Except for Pochalla County, the majority of households in this zone are highly dependent on livestock products, fish, wild plants and game, sources expected to be widely available during the approaching dry season.

It is critical to monitor the intertribal cattle raiding and local conflicts that continue to affect some locations, especially Diror, Wiror, and Nyriol counties.  It is also essential to monitor the impacts of recent disarmament activities in these same counties, because disarmament has made local communities more vulnerable to cattle raiding by their armed neighbors from Pibor County.

Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone
 
Reports from various counties in this zone indicate that normal levels of flooding were observed in 2006. 

Prospects of off farm food access including livestock products are favorable in the coming dry season.  These often compensate for crop losses incurred due to floods.  This scenario is expected in 2007.
 
Updates from a WFP assessment in Shilluk County indicate that conflict between indigenous people and migrant nomads who come for dry season (January-June) grazing affected cultivation.  This is contrary to earlier reports from World Vision, which indicated that cultivation returned to normal after rains set in and the nomads left.  Of concern is the recent fighting between Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) from November 28 ? December 1 in Malakal town, with unknown casualties.  Although calm returned after the two groups reached a ceasefire on December 1, tensions are still running high.  If this insecurity continues, it could potentially spread to other parts of Shilluk County, severely constraining dry season labor migration, fish trade and access to markets.  This requires close monitoring. 

Despite earlier than normal rains, crop performance is reportedly below normal in neighboring Ruweng County.  Despite poor crop performance, assessments and discussions held with households in this county since 1998 have consistently ranked improved health and water access as the most important priorities, which have not been sufficiently addressed to date. 

Earlier than normal flooding reduced crop production in Leer and Payinjiar counties.  As noted above, non-agricultural food sources will likely be able to fill the gap.

Farther south in Bor County, land cultivated by households bordering Wiror and Diror Counties was reportedly reduced due to conflict over disarmament activities conducted earlier in the year.  Also, lowland areas near the Nile River flooded during August and September. 

Hills and Mountains Zone

A second season harvest will peak in December and conclude in January especially in Juba and Budi Counties.  The main crops include sorghum, sesame, cowpeas, groundnuts and cassava (planted in 2005) in some areas.  Assessment findings by NPA in Juba indicate that crop performance has been mixed, and few households will be food insecure starting February, and others between April and July.

FEWS NET recommends close monitoring of the effects of deteriorating civil security conditions on food security, population mobility and trade in the area encompassed by Juba, Yei and Torit towns.  Unknown organized armed groups began attacking people in villages and along the main roads leading to Juba in July. 

FEWS NET also recommends monitoring of the effects of urban population growth in Juba town on food security for rural households.  The urbanization is reportedly fueling an upward trend in cereal prices in both urban and rural areas, reducing purchasing power of rural households dependent on rural employment opportunities to purchase cereal on the market.

Ironstone Zone

As in the Hills and Mountain Zone, a harvest of sorghum, groundnuts, millet, sesame, green grams and sweet potatoes is expected in November and December.  Updates from NPA on several counties are provided below.

In Terekeka County, crop performance is reportedly fair, and stocks will last households until June 2007.  Conditions are better in neighboring East Mundri County (Kediba), where households are expected to be food secure until the next harvest.  In neighboring Lainya County, ongoing crop harvests are expected to last until March/April but only for a small segment of the population.  Others will be food secure until the next harvest due in August.

Greenbelt Zone

Here, food security is expected to improve with the onset of the second season harvest that will be concluded in January.  This is a surplus crop producing area and has the potential to supply agricultural markets in neighboring Western Flood Plains Zone and parts of the Hills and Mountains and Ironstone Plateau Zones.

This zone was stable until recently, when attacks by the northern Uganda-based Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) spread to the Zone started in November last year and continued until June 2006.  The attacks included looting, destruction of assets, and the abduction, torture and killing of people.  The attacks constrained the 2005 second agricultural season (September-December) as crop harvests were taken by LRA (mostly sweet potatoes, groundnuts and maize).  LRA also looted livestock and poultry.

Earlier on, there were indications that this year's first season (April-August) agricultural activities were also affected because the timing of the LRA attacks coincided with the land preparation and planting periods, and they prevented farmers from cultivating farms far away from their homes, thus, reducing land under cultivation.  Other farmers lost seeds and tools.  The latest informal updates from a number of Greenbelt locations suggest that the negative effects of LRA attacks on the first season may not have had a serious negative impact, and that the ongoing second season (September ?December) has not been affected.  This suggests that households are expected to be food secure and that surpluses are still expected from this zone.  However, marketing of crop surpluses is highly constrained by extremely bad road conditions.

Special Focus: 2007 population census

Sudan's first post-war population census is scheduled to take place in November 2007.  In preparation for this census, mapping of villages and towns is planned to begin in the next six to seven months.  Committees have been set up for census preparations in both northern and southern Sudan.

The 2007 national census is of critical importance, especially for southern Sudan where the last population census was conducted in 1993 and only covered part of southern Sudan, thus severely limiting utility of the results for programming.

In absence of accurate census data for Southern Sudan, population estimates have been problematic and have fluctuated from year to year (Figure 6).  The figures have been derived from sources such as National Immunization Data (NID) generated during immunization activities every year, and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS).  Figure 6 illustrates the significant degree of variation among population estimates used in the past decade.  Due to the lack of accurate data, many humanitarian agencies developed alternative figures, informed by their field observations.  Discrepancies among figures led to disagreements among governmental and international agencies and inconsistencies in planning.

Figure 6: Population estimates for southern Sudan since 1998

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Sources: SSCCSE- NID and MICS

It is hoped that next year's census will successfully avert these access and coverage constraints, and provide reasonably accurate and very much needed population estimates.  The census is also anticipated to trigger larger than normal population returns of the internally displaced from northern to southern Sudan, because people may be encouraged to return home and participate in the census.  Up to 350,000 people are estimated to have returned in 2006.

Monitoring will be extremely difficult if large population returns occur, monitoring systems remain fragmented and irregular.  This will complicate already existing problems associated with lack of accurate population data which continues to affect decision making, planning, response and evaluation of all program activities in south Sudan.

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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