Households are able to access sufficient amounts of food, and as a result are generally food secure. Food is widely available in markets from the continued release of maize stocks, and maize prices are unseasonably low, benefiting market-dependent households. The low prices may provide a production disincentive for producer households, but high demand for maize in other southern African countries will likely prevent prices from bottoming out. Food availability is expected to increase even further when the musimu crop is harvested in unimodal areas starting in May.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) continues to impact the livestock sector and households that depend on the sector for their livelihood through the decreased demand for red meat and the quarantine-related restrictions on livestock trade. In response, the Government of Tanzania (GoT) has issued a strategic emergency response plan to control the long and short-term impacts of RVF, and has appealed to the donor community to fund the plan. The priority response is for increased livestock vaccination, but an 8.5 million vaccination-dosage shortfall is limiting the response.

The masika crop has been planted in bimodal areas of northern Tanzania. If the rains continue through June, an average crop is likely.

Seasonal calendar  

Timeline of critical events	Rainfall regimes
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Food availability and access

Food security conditions have continued to be favorable across the country. Prices are lower than the five-year average at this time and are decreasing from previous months, which is particularly unusual during this lean period when household stocks are normally at their lowest before the coming harvest. The low maize prices are a result of the current abundance of maize in markets, which is likely due to:

• An export ban put in place after the 2006 harvest, when maize demand from neighboring countries would have led to maize outflows and contributed to decreasing maize stocks, and
• The sale of maize stocks by traders, who purchased and stockpiled maize at the harvest time in 2006, speculating that stocks would now be low and prices would be high.

The low prices have continued to favor market-dependant households in both urban and rural areas, who are still able to access sufficient food during the normal hunger period. However, the low prices have a negative impact on producers and traders. Maize prices are expected to further decrease after the msimu harvest in May and the masika harvest in July enter the market. The low prices may provide a disincentive for farmers to produce and discourage traders from selling maize. This could affect the maize production and eventually lead to shortages of maize in the country in future. However, there is significant demand and high prices for maize in countries farther south, and access to such markets is important to enable farmers to recover their production costs and earn a profit.

Figure 1. Maize wholesale prices in reference markets, in TZS/100kg
Arusha (northern zone)	Dar es Salaam (main maize market)
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Dodoma (central zone)	Mtwara (southern coast)
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Musoma (lake zone)	Songea (southern highlands)
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Source: FEWS NET

Prices in the Lake Victoria zone (represented by the Musoma market in Figure 1 above) decreased below the January and February prices, responding to the above-average production of vuli crops such as potatoes following the good performance of the vuli rains. The decrease in maize prices in the central zone (represented by Dodoma market) is likely due to improved transportation after floods receded and road condition improved, which enabled the above-average levels of stocks in nearby regions to flow into the market. In the northern zone (represented by Arusha market), the above-average vuli harvest coupled with the maize harvest in Kenya caused the unseasonal decrease in prices. The decrease in price in Dar es Salaam, the main maize market of Tanzania, is likely due to increased supplies from upcountry from the substantial release of farmers’ and traders’ stocks. The relatively low prices in Songea market in the southern highlands are likely to have caused movement of maize to other markets with higher prices, leading to a moderate price increase since January. The Songea market behavior is also a normal trend at this time of year.

Rift Valley Fever

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) has continued to have a significant impact on the commercial demand for red meat in many parts of the country. After the initial outbreak in northern pastoral areas, the disease spread further south to the central pastoral areas. The outbreak has been confirmed in Manyara, Kilimanjaro and Arusha regions in the north and Dodoma Region in the central zone. Dodoma has been the most impacted in terms of human infection and death; RVF has killed 34 people total in Tanzania, 30 of which were in Dodoma.

RVF continues to stress all livelihoods that depend on the livestock sector through the decreased demand for red meat and the quarantines imposed on animal trade, which have reduced the income of livestock-dependent households. Additionally, the public scare of eating red meat has led to increased prices of alternative sources of protein (especially chicken and fish), making it difficult for low-income households to access sufficient levels of protein.

The Government of Tanzania is concerned that disease could be a source of health-related and socio-economic problems for years to come if not addressed immediately. Further spread could have serious long-term impacts on food security, the livestock industry and the cash income of the rural poor that depend on livestock for their livelihood.

As a result, the government has developed a comprehensive strategic emergency response plan to operationalize existing contingency plans and supplement the past and current initiatives taken by the government to contain the disease. This plan outlines the interventions necessary for disease control in both human and livestock, including building capacity for early warning and detection, increasing public awareness and enhancing capacity to contain the disease in both animals and humans. The government has appealed to donors and development partners for additional funding to implement the coordinated inter-ministerial undertaking to minimize future impact of RVF, which will cost an estimated $12,337,000. The immediate needs for rapid response in improving capacity for early detection and reporting are $2,881,000.

The priority response is livestock vaccination against the disease, which is ongoing in many districts in the affected areas. The major limiting factor on this process is the limited vaccine and funding available for this intervention. In response, the government has prioritized the purchase of vaccines so that the vaccination campaign can prevent the disease from moving south and westwards (such as to more countries in the Southern Africa Development Cooperation region) and to reduce the risk human infection. According to the emergency plan, vaccine doses are targeted to the approximately 9 million livestock in the at-risk areas, but the number of available vaccines is only 450,000.

Seasonal weather progress and crop development

In the unimodal areas of most of Tanzania, the November to April rains have progressed well, and crops are at the early maturity and late vegetative stages, normal for this time of year. As a result, crop prospects for the msimu harvest that starts in May are good. However, if the rains extend to June, the harvesting and drying of msimu crops will be difficult.

In the bimodal areas of northern Tanzania, the March to June masika rainy season is progressing normally. The season started a few weeks early in many areas (Figure 2), and although some areas in the northeast have received below-average cumulative seasonal rainfall, the water satisfaction index indicates that maize conditions are mediocre to good (Figure 3). Planting of the masika crops has been completed, and an average season is likely if the rains continue through June. An early end to the masika rains could prevent croups from reaching maturity and cause yield losses.

Figure 2: Start of season anomaly in bimodal areas, through April 30, 2007	Figure 3: Crop condition anomalies in bimodal areas, through April 30, 2007
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Source: USGS	Source: USGS

Pasture conditions and water levels in dams across the country are adequate in both unimodal and bimodal rainfall regime areas. Apart from RVF, livestock conditions are improving. Once the threat of RVF is controlled, pastoralists are likely to start to receive higher prices for their animals from the improved animal conditions resulting from pasture improvement.