Food security remains highly precarious for pastoral livelihoods in eastern districts as households grapple with income losses following the adverse impacts of the outbreak and subsequent spread of Rift Valley Fever (RVF). The worst-affected households in the eastern pastoral areas were recovering from a succession of 3-6 poor seasons, when floods and the RVF halted improvements in their food security. (For current food security status in Kenya, see figure 1.) Localized food insecurity is also expected to continue among marginal agricultural households that were affected by floods in coastal and lakeshore areas. Floods have cost lives, destroyed crops, displaced households and restricted access to markets. However, in all other livelihood zones where flooding was not severe, significant improvements in food security have been reported. National maize output, estimated at 3 million MT, is sufficient to supply the country beyond July 2007, the start of the long rains harvest. Prices are likely decline significantly after the short rains harvest in March, benefiting the drought, RVF and flooded affected households.

Pastoral food security improves in the northwest, but the Rift Valley Fever spreads beyond the buffer zone in the east

Environmental conditions have greatly improved across all pastoral areas, with the exception of those affected by flooding. The Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP) has reported continued regeneration of pasture, browse and recharging of water sources in the northern and eastern pastoral districts to the extent that seasonal migration of livestock to dry season areas has hardly been necessary. The ALRMP has also reported that as a result, livestock body conditions and productivity have been improving in most areas, although livestock in eastern pastoral areas infected by or recently vaccinated against Rift Valley Fever (RVF) are not fit for consumption. The rates of calving, lambing and kidding have risen markedly and are expected to increase further at the beginning of the long-rains season in the pastoral areas in late March-early April.

Improvements in livestock productivity and milk availability have been mitigated by an outbreak of RVF, confirmed in Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Ijara, Tana River districts and beyond the buffer zone in Malindi, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Baringo, Maragua and Kirinyaga districts. See figure 2. In many of these areas, especially the eastern pastoral districts, food insecurity is at extreme levels (see figure 1). So far, nearly 150 persons have died from the disease, nearly half of them in Garissa District, the epicenter of the outbreak. In addition to market and slaughter restrictions, a major vaccination campaign targeting an initial 1.2 million animals is ongoing. As soon as more personnel and vaccines become available, vaccination of an additional 1.3 million animals will be expanded to several high risk districts neighboring the outbreak area.

Outbreaks of cholera in Moyale, Mandera as well as in Kwale and Mombasa and measles in West Pokot and Moyale districts are also threatening improvements in pastoral food security. The upsurge in water borne diseases has compounded already high rates of malnutrition that were on a downward trend until one month ago, particularly in the eastern pastoral districts. The ALRMP has reported that water contamination in Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Ijara, Tana River and Moyale has resulted in a sharp decline in sanitary and hygiene conditions. Key water sources, especially dams, broke their embankments, contaminating water in several of the eastern pastoral districts.

Livestock prices have risen by margins ranging between 5 and 10 percent in Turkana, Samburu, Wajir, Kajiado, Baringo and Garissa districts. Surprisingly, the expected marked decline in livestock prices resulting from the quarantine on livestock movement, closure of markets and the restriction on the slaughter of livestock has not occurred. The ALRMP has reported that livestock prices have remained fairly firm, attributed to a combination of exceptionally good animal body conditions, ready availability of grazing resources and the desire to withhold livestock for restocking to compensate for decimation of herds during the previous drought. However, the prolonged closure of markets is likely to lead to a significant decline in livestock prices and, more worryingly, will accentuate the already precarious food security among northeastern pastoralists.

Pastoral terms of trade are likely to decline significantly if the quarantine remains in place during the next few months. The ALRMP has reported that the price of maize has risen in several of the pastoral districts including Wajir, Tana River and Garissa, as more of the grain is consumed in place of livestock and livestock products. The rise in maize prices is also attributed to reduced harvests in the three districts after the key irrigation structures and crops were destroyed by floods. Inaccessibility by traders Through most of January, traders were not able to access markets because of the dilapidated trade infrastructure following the floods, and as a result, maize prices rose significantly in Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado and Trans Mara districts.

Improvements in pastoral food security are also being undermined by localized conflicts in some areas of the pastoral livelihood zone. The ALRMP has reported continued conflict in parts of Tana River, Samburu, Trans Mara, Laikipia, Baringo and Turkana. Some markets have been closed, pastoralists displaced and grazing areas are being avoided for fear of livestock raiding.

Assessment results to clarify future food needs

In January, close to two million beneficiaries received some 21,300 MT of food aid under the Emergency Operation EMOP). The December distributions spilled into January, largely because significant distribution points were inaccessible, after severe flooding caused further deterioration of the infrastructure. The January dispatches and distributions started at the end of the month and are expected to continue into February in many districts. In addition, the Expanded School Feeding Program started in 1,378 schools and will feed 554,600 school children through the first term running from January to the end of March. The schools have already received required food commodities. The future of the program will be decided by the on-going short rains assessment. The 2007 short rains assessments started in early February and will last for three weeks. The multi-agency, multi-sectoral assessments include participation from WFP, the Government, NGOs and UN agencies. The outcome of the assessment is expected to provide guidance on the future of the drought emergency operation.

The Special Operation that provided support to the flood response in northeastern districts of Kenya and Somalia concluded at the end of January. During the flood response in December and January, some 303,500 beneficiaries were reached by air in Garissa, Wajir, Tana River and Ijara. The aircrafts were also used to provide logistic support to the government authorities in response to Rift Valley Fever in Garissa District. Road access has gradually improved in many locations, and dispatches can now be carried out by road. The roads have remained dry but are dilapidated and require urgent repairs and maintenance. WFP used 6x6 trucks in January, but plans to phase them out in February when more roads become accessible.

The second quarterly post-distribution monitoring report for the period September-November was published in January. The key findings are fairly promising and suggest this following: most of the food aid is consumed at the household level by the beneficiaries, the WFP and GoK coordinated single pipeline is highly functional, household and livestock assets are generally stable, and households are not engaging in extreme coping strategies.

The short rains extend unusually into mid-January before tailing off in most areas

The short rains continued uncharacteristically through the second week of January in several areas of the country. However, the January rains were of a much lower intensity than was experienced in October through December. Figure 3 shows cumulative short rains for the entire 2006/07 season illustrating far higher than normal rains in most of the country, including the drought-affected northern and eastern pastoral districts.

The short rains have brought substantial respite to the drought-prone and marginal agricultural areas that had experienced a succession of 3-6 poor seasons prior to the current short-rains season. The January rains significantly improved the availability of pasture and water in pastoral areas that were not flooded. These rains have also greatly benefited the maize crop in the marginal areas of the south eastern and coastal lowlands. However, the rains also disrupted harvests of the final portion of the long rains crop in the Rift Valley highlands and the early maturing short-cycle crops in the marginal agricultural and highland areas of eastern, central and southeastern Kenya. While this will have little impact on the overall long-rains maize output, significant losses of bean crops have been reported in marginal agricultural areas, and this will have an impact on household food security. The seasonal decline in bean prices will be mitigated by the losses, and drought-prone households are more likely to face prohibitively high bean prices earlier than usual and will consequently limit the diversity of their diet. The uncharacteristic extension of the short rains also caused renewed flooding in localized pastoral, coastal and lakeshore areas.

While the short rains have generally ended in all areas of the country, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast the resumption of rains in southwestern Kenya in February. The International Research Institute’s forecast for the February-April period also suggests that the northern and eastern pastoral areas of the country are likely to experience normal to above normal rains during the March-April period. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures have begun to decline, and the extent of the decline will more decisively determine the quality of the rains during the critical long-rains season.

Maize crop prospects are optimistic, while prices remain stable in key producing areas

Harvesting of the long rains crop has ended in all areas of the country after rains tailed off in mid-January. The short-rains season is expected to end in March instead of February, because of the extension of the short rains into January. Subsequently, harvesting of the short-rains crops especially in the central highlands and in the marginal agricultural areas of coastal and southeastern Kenya is likely to occur concurrently with land preparation for the long-rains season that is scheduled to begin in mid-March. However, harvesting of the short rains crop has been completed in southwestern Kenya and around the lakeshore. Nevertheless, according to KMD’s forecast, rains are expected to begin in the southwest during February. While this is not unusual, many farmers in this area have had little time prepare their land for planting due to the extended short rains that have only just ended. Subsequently, the cost of land preparation and planting is expected to rise sharply as the supply of labor and machinery fails to satisfy the demand because of the small window between harvesting and land preparation.

The Ministry of Agriculture has concluded that about 3 million MT of maize will be harvested during the July 2006 – June 2007 long and short rains seasons. The output is about 15 percent higher than the long term average and is attributed to good long and short rains in key producing areas of the country. Current maize stocks are estimated to be 1.56 million MT, equivalent to a seven month’s national demand for maize. Farmers are holding 810,000 MT or 58 percent of that quantity, traders 340,000 MT, the National Cereals and Produce Board 290,000 MT and Millers 120,000 MT. Additional output from the short-rains season harvest in March should boost local supply even further. Figure 4 shows comparative short rains maize output for the 2006/07 season as compared to 10-year average.

Maize prices have remained largely stable during January even after harvesting of the long rains crop was completed. While prices were expected to decline soon after the harvest, increased demand from educational institutions at the beginning of the school term in January has moderated the expected fall in maize prices. However, maize prices have declined somewhat in the southwest where harvesting of the short rains crop has just been completed. A more pronounced decline in maize prices is expected from the end of February, when the harvest begins in the key short rains areas. Farmers in the drought-prone marginal agricultural areas tend to sell their newly harvested crop immediately after harvest at very low prices, when the market is already over-supplied. The rapid sale of crop output is attributed to a combination of a need to finance other obligations; absence of adequate on-farm storage infrastructure; and a need to mitigate high post harvest losses, especially from damage by the greater grain borer and Aflatoxin infection. Unfortunately for many of these households, the cyclical nature of food insecurity is evident a few months after harvest, when households purchase back cereals at prices several times higher than the price at which they sold their harvests.

Conclusion

While food insecurity remains pervasive in the pastoral, agropastoral and marginal agricultural livelihoods, opportunities for response across sectors would go a long way toward improving food security. Measures would include:

• Widespread vaccination of livestock to avoid any re-lapse of RVF in the event that the long rains lead to additional flooding since the soils are already saturated.
• The widespread outbreak of vector and water-borne diseases including cholera and malaria, particularly in pastoral, coastal and lakeshore districts suggests that interventions in the health and water sectors are urgently needed to forestall the spread of the diseases.
• Emergency multi-sectoral interventions will need to continue, especially in eastern pastoral areas that remain extremely food insecure. Importantly, targeted supplementary feeding programs need to be expanded, particularly in the eastern pastoral districts and localized areas of northwestern pastoral districts, where rates of child malnutrition remain unacceptably high.
• Roads have been dilapidated by heavy rains and floods, and urgent rehabilitation is needed to open up roads especially in pastoral, coastal and lakeshore areas to improve access to markets and services.
• Rehabilitation of infrastructure in schools: floods destroyed nearly 300 schools, affecting 135,000 school pupils.
• Livestock re-stocking programs intended to re-build the pastoralists’ income base need to be put in place urgently since the long rains season is due to begin in March.
• Rehabilitation of irrigation structures destroyed by floods in Mandera, Garissa and Tana River is crucial.
• Pricing policy intended to support key producers to the detriment of traditionally market-dependent food insecure households needs to be reviewed.
• Purification of water sources for humans and livestock after contamination from floods urgently needs to be implemented.