Ongoing crop harvests have significantly improved household food security in Malawi, as households who had depleted reserves from last year now have fresh crops in store. Harvests are near complete in the south and are just underway in the north, following normal seasonal patterns. The rainfall season is essentially over, except for isolated cases of intermittent rainfall in some parts of the country.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security released the second round agricultural production estimates figures on 12 April 2007, indicative of another bumper harvest this season. This year?s maize production, estimated at 3.2 million MT, plus carryover stocks from last season?s bumper harvest, will result in yet another huge food surplus this season. However, just like the first round production estimate figures, the second round estimate figures are also preliminary and the final figures are not expected until around the end of June or early July.

While promoting food security, last season?s bumper harvest last season resulted in significant drops in maize prices and limited the marketing potential, much to the disadvantage of traders, including the governmental parastatal ADMARC, as well as farmers who had surplus for sale. This was made worse by the export ban which further limited marketing opportunities for the surplus maize in the country. The government in February allowed controlled exports of up to 80,000 MT of maize. This was later followed by further relaxation of the restrictions when, at the beginning of April, the government indicated that it had a tender to supply 400,000 MT of maize to Zimbabwe through the National Food Reserve Agency. Media reports indicated that by end of April, about 5,000 MT had been exported to Zimbabwe.

Seasonal timeline

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Agro-meteorological situation

Rainfall declined during the month of April, which marks the end of the 2006/07 rainfall season. The dry conditions that persisted during the period facilitated the drying of the mature maize ready for harvest. Harvesting of maize is almost complete in the southern and parts of the central region while it has just started in the northern region where the rains are just beginning to decline. Some isolated areas in the south and central regions, however, have received some rainfall, which farmers fear could rot the already dry maize.

Second round crop production estimates

The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security released their first round crop production estimates figures for the 2006/07 agricultural season on 12 April 2007. The following sections give a summary of the findings.

Maize

Figure 1. Comparison of maize production, average and consumption requirement trends FULL-SIZE IMAGE   FEWSNET/Malawi; Source: MoAFS

Overall maize production is estimated at 3,218,850 MT, of which 3,019,146 MT and 358,015 MT are expected production by smallholder farmers during summer and winter, respectively, while the remaining 199,714 MT is expected to come from estates. The total maize production estimate for the second round represents a slight increase of 2 percent from the first estimate in January 2007 of 3,146,398 MT. This is attributed to a 2 percent increase in expected yield from an average 0f 1,871 kg per hectare to 1,909 kg per hectare. During the second round, crops are at an advanced stage of growth, enabling the agricultural field staff make a better judgment of the expected yields than during the first round when the farmers have not yet planted or have just planted the various crops. The second round production estimate also represents a 25 percent increase over last season?s final maize production estimate of 2,576,716 MT. The increase in the current season? estimate over last season?s final estimate is attributed to a 4 percent increase in area planted to maize, from 1,620,493 hectares to 1,686,442 hectares. The increases in area planted to maize and in yields are attributed to increased seed availability through various programs and projects that enabled easy access by farmers to improved maize seed (hybrids and composites). The average maize yield increased 20 percent, from 1,590 kg per hectare last year to 1,909 kg per hectare in 2006/07. The increase in maize yield is not just a result of an increase in improved seed uptake, but improved access to fertilizers and favorable weather, as well, which was much better overall than last season, when farmers in the central areas of the country, especially Kasungu and parts of the surrounding districts experienced severe drought. The improved seed and fertilizer uptake are attributed to the support by the government and various NGOs through various programs, most notably the government input subsidy program. The current maize production estimate is also the highest on record and is almost double the long term average (91 percent above average) maize production of about 1,646,170 MT over the last 25 seasons, including the current season. Figure 1 compares annual and average maize production and consumption requirement trends over the last 25 years. The maize requirement is for human consumption only and does not include other uses such as seed, animal feed, etc., as is the case in the food balance sheet analysis. The requirement is based on the National Statistical Office (NSO) population projected figures based on the 1998 census, and assumes a fixed contribution of maize at 72.8 percent to the total energy intake, as used in the food balance sheet. The figure shows that before 1989/90 season, maize production was generally stable but below average. However, the country was able to meet its maize consumption requirement. After 1990/91 season there have been significant fluctuations in maize production with seasons of maize deficits and surpluses, and below and above average maize production. The production fluctuations in the recent past have been a matter of concern to the country as they have sometimes seriously affected the food security situation and performance of the economy as a whole.

Figure 2. Percentage of maize area planted to each variety from the 1989/90 to 2006/07 agricultural seasons FULL-SIZE IMAGE FEWSNET/Malawi, Source: MoAFS

Since land is limited, the potential for increased maize production as well as other crops mainly lies in the potential for increasing yields. Currently the maize yield levels are below potential. The current figures show that the average hybrid maize yields this past season ranged from 2,097 kg/ha in Shire Valley ADD to 3,050 kg/ha in Lilongwe ADD, compared to potential hybrid maize yields of up to 10,000 kg/ha. Composite maize yields ranged from 1,221 kg/ha in Shire Valley ADD to 2,473 kg/ha in Mzuzu ADD compared to potential yields for composite maize of up to 5,000 kg/ha, while local variety maize yields ranged from 782 kg/ha in Shire Valley ADD to 1,061 kg/ha in Mzuzu ADD against potential yield for local maize of up to 3,000 kg/ha. There is still a lot of potential therefore to increase production through increased yields by practicing improved farm husbandry practices and adoption of improved varieties, especially the hybrids, as shown above. Figure 2 shows the percentage of maize area planted to the different maize varieties from the 1989/90 to 2006/07 agricultural seasons.

Rice

Rice is likely the second most important staple food in Malawi. However, it is mostly consumed in towns, where it is bought from shops. In rural areas, rice consumption is significant along the lakeshore areas around Lake Chirwa in the southern region, which covers districts, such as Zomba, Phalombe and Machinga, and along lakeshore areas of Lake Malawi, such as Salima and Nkhotakota in the central region and Nkhatabay and Karonga districts in the northern region. Some of the rice produced in Karonga district in the northern region is exported to Tanzania through informal cross-border trade. Rice is one of the few agricultural commodities of which Malawi is a net exporter. The second round rice production estimate stands at 110,568 MT, up 4 percent from the first round estimate of 106,797 MT. This is attributed to a 3 percent increase in area planted, from 56,481 hectares to 58,097 hectares, and to favorable weather conditions across the country this season. The continued rains after the first round estimate favored continued planting of rice. The yield rose slightly by 1 percent, from 1,891 kg per hectare to 1,903 kg per hectare. These yield levels are very low compared to potential yields of up to 4,000 kg and 6,000 kg per hectare for rainfed and irrigated rice, respectively. There is a lot of potential therefore to increase rice production. Another way is through irrigation to increase area planted. Compared to last season, the current rice production estimate is about 20 percent higher than lat year?s production of 92,449 MT. Area planted with rice has increased 11 percent, from 52,313 hectares last season to 58,097 hectares this season. The yield is up 8 percent from an average of 1,767 kg/ha last season to 1,903 kg/ha this season.

Cassava

The second round cassava production estimates figures put cassava production at 3,202,398 MT fresh weight, about 4 percent higher than the initial estimate of 3,082,997 MT. The change reflects an increase in area planted with cassava and in cassava yields. Estimated area planted increased by 3 percent between the first and second rounds, from 169,485 hectares to 174,932 hectares. Due to the continuation of rains, farmers kept planting after the first round estimates were completed. Cassava yield remains almost the same, up by just 1 percent. However, compared to last season, cassava production is up 12 percent. This is as a result of 6 percent increases in both planted area and yield of cassava since last year. The area planted increased from 165,293 hectares last season to 174,932 hectares this season, while the cassava yields increased from an average of 17,322 kg to 18,307/kg per hectare in the same period. This is attributed to favorable weather and improved availability of planting materials through various NGO and government programs.

Cassava is important both as a source of food and income. Due to its drought tolerance, many households have come to realize the importance of cassava, especially in drought years. Experience has also proved that during the drought years, the food security situation in the major cassava producing areas is not as adversely affected as is the case in the predominantly maize producing areas. The main cassava producing areas are along the central and northern lakeshore, where cassava is considered a staple food. Cassava has also become a very important cash crop as many households in the urban areas use cassava as a substitute for bread.

Cotton

Figure 3. Cotton area, yield and production trends   FULL-SIZE IMAGE FEWSNET/Malawi; Source: MoAFS

The second round figures show a 3 percent drop in area planted to cotton from 62,233 hectares last season to 60,688 hectares this season. However, production increased 6 percent, from 58,553 MT to 61,822 MT. This is due to an 8 percent increase in cotton yields, from and average of 941 kg per hectare to 1,019 kg per hectare. This is mainly attributed to favorable weather conditions. For 25 years (1982/83 to 2006/07 seasons), the average cotton yields have ranged from 234 kg per hectare to over 1,000 kg per hectare. These yields are very low, considering that cotton yields can be up 3,000 kg per hectare. The government is trying to promote cotton as a cash crop as one way of moving away from overdependence on tobacco. Although cotton has always been cultivated in Malawi, the production levels have been low. Cotton is mainly grown in the hot and dry parts of the country, such as in the Lower Shire Valley, Middle Shire (e.g. Balaka district), and parts of the central and northern lakeshores. In these areas, cotton is an important source of income, which among other things is used to buy food, and is therefore important for food security and livelihoods in general. However, cotton production has remained low, and one reason for that are the poor prices offered to cotton farmers. This is why government has been holding discussions with cotton buyers to raise the price from a minimum of MK30.00/kg last season to MK40.00/kg this season. However, media reports indicate that the buyers have not accepted the price. Although the government set the minimum price last season, this was not followed by the buyers who offered prices around MK25.00/kg to MK28.00/kg. As indicated already, cotton production has remained below 70,000 MT per season (with one exception), as shown in figure 3. The figure shows that area planted has been the major determinant of cotton production as evidenced by the similarity of the area planted and production trends, with the exception of 1991/92 and 2005/06 seasons, where the production dropped despite the increase in area planted. This was due to significant drops in yields of the crops due bad weather conditions. Cotton is one of the few crops in Malawi that undergoes big seasonal fluctuations in area planted, a factor attributed to unstable cotton prices.

Tobacco

According to the second round figures, tobacco production by smallholder farmers is estimated to have dropped by 5 percent, from 121,570 MT last season to 115,765 MT this season. The drop is due to a 13 percent decrease in area planted, largely a result of farmers? disappointment with the poor prices offered last season. The area cultivated dropped from 136,527 hectares last season to 118,669 MT this season. However, the decrease in area was more than compensated by a 10 percent increase in tobacco yields, from 890 kg per hectare last season to 976 kg per hectare this season, as a result of favorable weather and ready availability of fertilizers. Tobacco is grown by smallholder farmers and estates, and most of the tobacco is grown by estates and production estimation in the estates is done by the Tobacco Control Commission. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security only provides estimates for the tobacco grown by the smallholder farmers.

Figure 4. ADMARC and local market maize prices, by region   Northern region FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Central region FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Southern region FULL-SIZE IMAGE FEWSNET/Malawi; Source: MoAFS

Appendix 1 shows a comparison of the this season?s second round production estimates to this season?s first and last season?s final rounds crop production estimates for most of the crops.

Implications on the food balance sheet

Apart from tobacco, production of all other crops is estimated to increase this season, a situation that is good for the country?s food security. For the second season running, the country is expected to have a bumper harvest. This harvest, in addition to huge carryover stocks from last season?s bumper harvest, should see the country realize another big food surplus. A detailed food balance sheet analysis will be produced after the final estimates to determine the size of food surplus.

Markets and prices

Local-market maize prices continued to drop in many markets with the onset of the harvesting period, resulting in excess maize supply relative to market demand and, consequently, falling maize prices. Out of the 66 markets for which comparative data between March and April 2007 was available, about 80 percent (53 markets) registered drops in maize prices of just