Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, October – December 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Mali

• After two consecutive years of good grain harvests in Mali owing to good rainfall conditions, grain availability and grain access are stable in all parts of the country.
• Grain prices are lower than they were at the same time last year and below average prices for the last five years.
• There was an earlier than usual dry spell beginning in mid-September in certain parts of the country, with the rains later resuming in the third dekad of October in places. This could mean smaller crop yields in certain localized areas. Grazing conditions for livestock have improved.
• The joint CILSS/FAO/FEWS NET pre-harvest assessment for the 2007/08 growing season is already in progress. The findings by this assessment mission will be released sometime in November.

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Current food security situation

Thanks to last season’s good harvests, the household food situation is satisfactory in all parts of the country with the exception of the North, where there are pockets of moderately food-insecure areas plagued by structural problems, along with highly food-insecure areas as a result of the civil unrest in the Northeast.

The country’s good grain harvests over the last few years have brought it a certain measure of household food security. There are adequate, regular market supplies of grain at affordable prices for consumers, yet high enough to satisfy farmers.

Coarse grain prices are somewhat lower than last year and below the five-year average for the same time of year.

There are lush pastures and good watering holes in pastoral areas of the country. Conditions have clearly improved since July with the definitive onset of the rains. Fattened animals around the country are in satisfactory condition. The growth in milk production is benefiting pastoralists and prices for livestock are in their favor. Animal health conditions are relatively calm. Thus, pastoralists and agropastoralists are enjoying relatively good grain access on local markets.

Progress of the growing season

Figure 2. Satellite rainfall estimate (METEOSAT)   FULL-SIZE IMAGE 3rd dekad of September 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE 1st dekad of October 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE 2nd dekad of October 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE         Source: FEWS NET/USGS

After making satisfactory progress, the end of the growing season was marred by a rainfall deficit. The late onset of the rains in the country’s Sudanian zone, particularly in the Sikasso and Ségou regions, undermined the planting of cotton crops and slowed down the planting of coarse grain crops such as millet, sorghum and corn. On the whole, the size of the areas planted with cotton and corn are smaller than last season, while areas were planted with millet and sorghum are larger.

This is the time of year when farm families around the country are getting ready to begin harvesting their millet and sorghum crops. The gradual normalization of meteorological conditions between mid-July and mid-September allowed farming activities to proceed and crops to make adequate progress, giving farmers new hope. However, the limited yet vital rainfall required by crops in certain localized areas tapered off even further beginning in the third and, in some cases, the second dekad of September (Figure 2).

Figure 3. Rainfall totals from May 1- October 20, 2007, compared with 2006 and the norm FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: GTPA, FEWS NET/Mali

Figure 4. Condition of millet crops as of October 20, 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET/USGS

According to satellite rainfall estimates, rainfall rates have steadily declined over the last few weeks and, on the whole, are running short to very short.  However, the recent rainy spell in the third dekad of October in certain areas certainly helped dissipate the fears of local farmers.  In general, cumulative rainfall totals for the period from May 1 through October 20 are normal to above-normal and, generally speaking, are at or above last year’s figures for this same period (Figure 3).

Millet/sorghum and lowland rice crops are in the maturation stage, rice crops in areas with automatic irrigation systems and flood-irrigated rice are in the height growth-heading stages, cotton crops are in the capsule formation and boll opening stages, while corn, groundnut, grain cowpea and fonio crops are in the harvesting stage.

On the whole, crop growth and development and the general appearance of fields are good (Figure 4).

However, there are localized reports of crops wilting as a result of rainfall deficits late in the season, which could mean lower crop yields in these areas.

Plant health conditions are marked by:

• the descent of grain-eating birds (Quelea birds) on the Office du Niger (Ségou) area and the existence of nesting sites (with egg layings, hatchings and fledglings) in the Mopti area;
• the movement of grasshoppers from fallow lands to cropped fields in the Mopti and Gao regions as the area’s natural vegetation dries out, with reports of localized damage to millet and cowpea crops in certain areas and some 125 hectares of crops in Gao treated with chemicals.
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On the whole, the desert locust situation is still calm.

Pastures in all major agropastoral areas of the country are in good condition, with significant pasture production helping to meet the food needs of the animal population. In general, feeding conditions for livestock are good. The levels of watering holes are adequate, facilitating animal watering conditions, and fattened animals are in rather good shape. Milk production is improving in all parts of the country.

Sedentary animals remain penned, while migratory animal herds are in rainy season grazing lands.

Markets

Figure 5. Interannual trends in average millet prices on markets in regional capitals (2006, 2007 and 2002-06 average) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: OMA, FEWS NET/Mali

On the whole, markets have consistently been reporting adequate grain supplies since the beginning of this marketing season.

Grain supplies on retail markets in regional capitals around the country are in step with effective demand. In general, domestic markets have ample supplies of grain.

In fact, on the whole, coarse grain prices on local markets have been more or less stable for the past few months. So far this year, any price fluctuations have been extremely small.

This trend toward price stability is expected to grow stronger over the next few weeks, culminating with the regular seasonal downswing in grain prices as fresh crops are brought to market from major millet-producing areas around the country.

October prices for coarse grain crops on reference retail markets in regional capitals around the country are at or below last year’s figures and the five-year average for the same time of year (Figure 4).

Ongoing joint harvest assessment for 2007/08

The CILSS-FAO-FEWS NET pre-harvest assessment for the 2007/08 growing season in Mali was conducted over the period from October 15 through October 20. The findings by the assessment mission, serving as basis for the country’s grain balance sheet for 2007/08, will be released sometime in November.