FEWS NET Monthly Report for Zambia covering the period Nov 2006 to Dec 2006.

ZAMBIA Food Security Update December 2006

ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY

 

Summary and implications

The agricultural season is underway in Zambia, and planting continues across the country.  In the north, the seasonal rains were delayed by up to a month, while in central and southern Zambia, rains have been interrupted by dry spells.  This season is a moderate El Nino, and central and southern Zambia are prone to rainfall deficits during an El Nino.  Farmers in these areas are either planting late or may have to replant, and could be facing lower than average crop yields as a result. 

Markets will be well supplied with maize for the duration of the marketing season.  Maize meal prices have been exceptionally low, influenced to a large degree by the ban on private sector maize exports.  Regional markets are offering attractive prices, and private traders have been lobbying the government to lift the ban. 

Several districts, particularly in Western Province, have recently appealed for food assistance, despite the evidence of favorable food security conditions.  These requests should be carefully reviewed.  VAC teams are conducting rapid assessments and will present their recommendations to decision makers responding to these requests.

Seasonal calendar

Start of season update: 2006/07 growing season

The rainy season is underway, and planting continues across Zambia.  In much of northern Zambia, the 2006/07 growing season did not effectively start until the second dekad of November ? one to three dekads later than normal.  In the rest of the country, the season began early or on time (see Figure 1a).  However, since the start of the rains, there have been significant dry spells in southern and central Zambia.  This season is a moderate El Ni?o one, and southern and central Zambia tend to have rainfall deficits during an El Ni?o year.

Figure 1a.  Onset of rains as of Dec 10, 2006 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 1b.  Start of season anomaly-Dec 10, 2006 FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Source : FEWS NET/USGS

Where rains were delayed or interrupted by dry spells, farmers are either planting late or may have to replant.  Some late planted crops, in particular, are facing stress and could begin to wilt if rains do not improve.  The Meteorological Department expects an improvement in rainfall beginning in the second dekad of December.  If rains do pick up, crops could recover from the late start and the dry spell.  However, the time for planting cereal crops is quickly running out. 

Figure 2a.  Soil Water index for November 11-30 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 2b.  Soil Water index for December 1-10 FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Source : FEWS NET/USGS

The current season is an El Ni?o year, which increases the potential for rainfall deficits in the southern parts of the country.  The seasonal forecast released by the Department of Meteorology in September indicated that the southern half of the country is likely to receive below normal to normal rainfall.  The El Ni?o which was detected in September, is moderate.  Areas most susceptible to El Ni?o conditions are the southern parts of Central Province, Lusaka, Western Province and Southern Province, with the extreme southern areas of the country being most vulnerable.  However, the development of an El Ni?o does not necessarily imply a poor rainy season, and its impact could still be minimal.  The best time to assess the impact of the poor seasonal start on crop performance will be in January and February, in the middle of the growing season.

Selected districts requesting food assistance

While the country experienced an above average harvest from the 2005/06 production season, which generally improved the food security situation for most households by increasing household stocks and improving their access to staple food with reduced prices, there have recently been calls for relief food assistance from districts around Zambia (see Figure 3).  Surprisingly, most of the districts are in Western Province and include the highly productive district of Kaoma.  In Southern Province, the districts requesting assistance are normally net consumers of maize and dependent on neighboring districts for grain supply at this time of the year.  The districts in Southern and Western provinces are also major livestock rearing districts, and terms of trade are currently favorable given the relatively low maize prices.  In the highly productive districts of Mkushi and Serenje, the requests specify needs in the valley areas, where off season production is normally practiced.  Food assistance requests from northern Zambia are unusual, though it's important to note that some of the districts (e.g.  Chinsali, Chama) had a late start to the seasonal last year.  The district of Samfya frequently appeals for food assistance.  Fishing is one of the major livelihoods in the district.  The district's dependency could partly be based on the decline in fish stocks, which have been depleted because of poor fishing practices. 

Figure 3.  Districts requesting food assistance, including districts where FRA purchases were made

Source of data: VAC, FRA

Bearing in mind that staple food prices are unusually low at this time, it will be difficult to adequately justify providing relief food to most of these areas for the following reasons:

1. During the lean period of November to February, it is normal for low/non producing households to rely on the market to meet their food needs.

2. The price of staple food is relatively low and much below average.  Provision of relief food to most of these areas may further dampen prices to the disadvantage of producers. 

3. There are no obvious indications that normal income sources for households in areas requesting assistance have been disrupted.

4. The volumes of maize sold to the FRA in most of these districts were higher than usual, a sign of large surplus or excessive selling due to the attractive above market price offered by the agency.

5. A number of these districts (Serenje, Mkushi valley, Siavonga, Gwembe, Sinazongwe, Mambwe and most of Western Province), have two to three harvests of various crops in any given year, and harvests are either taking place or about to take place. 

6. Fishing bans are normal from December 1 to end of February and allow breeding to take place. 

7. Pockets of food insecurity are normal, even in a good year, and can be chronic in nature.  Emergency food assistance is not normally a suitable response to food insecurity in this instance, particularly where prices are very low. 

VAC teams are conducting a rapid assessment in areas requesting food assistance in order to verify the food security situation before providing appropriate recommendations to decision makers. 

Market position

The FRA has finally withdrawn from the market after purchasing an additional 44,000 MT, which fell short of the 50,000 MT target during the extended two week purchasing period in November, the initial purchase period having ended on September 30.  The total maize stocks held by the FRA (2006 purchases and carry over) is about 400,000 MT, which is more than they would normally have at this time of year.  Despite this, the FRA's exports so far have been unusually low (no more than 20 percent of the 100,000 MT intended).  Selling the maize locally would only dampen prices to the disadvantage of producers and traders, who still face an export ban.  Already, low prices could be discouraging farmers from planting maize as long as they can not take advantage of regional market opportunities.  The private sector has continued lobbying Government to allow them to export part of the surplus maize.  The current export ban in place prevents producers and traders from taking advantage of regional opportunities, including WFP maize purchases.  WFP purchases in Zambia this year have only been for local programs (~16,455 MT).  In recent surplus years, WFP has purchased over 50,000 MT from Zambia for their Southern Africa regional programs. 

The price at which millers have been purchasing maize remained relatively stable in December after a slight increase in November (see Figure 4a).  Price stability is unusual at this time of year.  This is a good indication of the steady supply of maize on the market.  Because millers have enjoyed stable access to maize, the price of breakfast meal (highly refined) has remained stable since August.  Maize meal prices are much lower than in the previous year (see Figure 4b).  Prices for roller meal (less refined) fell steeply between May and August, and are steadily increasing.  This is normal for the end of the year, when demand for roller meal starts rising.  However, the slope of this increase is less steep compared to other years. 

Figure 4a.  Indicative maize wholesale prices for millers FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Millers Association

Figure 4b.  Lusaka maize meal retail price trends (May-November) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET/CSO

Maize prices during the current marketing season have generally been below the recent five year average throughout the country (see Figure 5).  In addition to millers, low income households are the principal consumers of unmilled maize, which they then take to hammer mills for processing.

Figure 5a.  Real retail maize prices (2006 vs Average) for selected areas not requesting relief assistance

Source : FEWSNET/CSO 

Figure 5b.  Real retail maize prices (2006 vs Average) for selected areas requesting relief assistance
 
Source : FEWSNET/CSO

Maize prices remained relatively low in both surplus and deficit maize producing districts.  Prices have been rising more steeply in the latter, as is usual, in order to attract maize from surplus areas.  Generally, the price pattern exhibited so far is in line with an exceptionally good maize surplus season. 

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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