Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (Jul to Sep) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Honduras

• A moderate improvement in food security is expected in August and September for households that are currently highly food insecure. The primera harvest of maize and beans began by mid-August and has improved the availability of these foods and food access for most poor households. Additionally, the primera harvest and land preparation for the postrera planting have increased the demand for unskilled labor.

• Food security is not expected to improve for households in southern Honduras that lost between 45 to 73 percent of their primera maize crops due to poor rainfall distribution in June and July. From August onwards, these losses may result in food deficits of up to 40 percent.

• Maize prices remain significantly above normal, primarily as a result of the high international maize price.

• An active hurricane season is forecast for August to October.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Food security situation

Except for municipalities in the south, a moderate improvement in food security is expected for most poor households throughout the country, due to the primera harvests and the preparation for the postrera planting of maize and beans that began in mid-August. These households’ main source of food and income during August and September is the subsistence production of staple cereals and the sale of unskilled labor.

About 30 percent of the production is used to provide between 20 and 40 percent of household food consumption. The remaining 70 percent is sold, and the income is used to purchase additional food and to meet other non-food needs. The sale of unskilled labor in activities related to the primera harvest and the postrera planting preparation of larger landowners is another important source of income that enables poor households to improve their access to food in August and September. Nonetheless, this improvement is not enough for these households to overcome their structural conditions of food insecurity.

On the other hand, the situation for poor households in the south will be different, as they could be affected by a food deficit of up to 40 percent during August and September. The losses in the primera staple cereal crops in the region will only be partially compensated for by the sale of unskilled labor in the postrera planting preparation activities, and could extend the hunger season until September. In overall situation, poor households would have to reduce the quantity and quality of their food consumption, and/or migrate to urban centers in search of other income sources. In the most severe cases of food insecurity, the food assistance that has been provided since April and that was scheduled to end in August will have to be extended until September or October, when households will have improved access to income-generating opportunities with which to purchase food through the sale of their labor in agro-industry.

Figure 2. Honduras climate outlook, August to October 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: CRRH, XXII Central America Climate Forum July 2007

Seasonal progress

The maize and beans primera crops are being harvested from mid-August to September in most of the country. According to the National Statistics Institute, 322,000 hectares of maize will be harvested, 23 percent more than last year, with a production of nearly 11 million quintals, which represents 50 percent of the annual national demand. This will improve maize availability in markets and household reserves.

Postrera planting, especially of beans, also begins in August. The rainfall forecast is favorable for livelihood zones 5, 4, 15, 9 and 8, where staple cereal production is the main source of food and income (Figure 2). A rainfall deficit is expected for livelihood zone 2, an agricultural and cattle-producing area, although normal rainfall levels are sufficiently high that a moderate deficit should not damage staple cereal production. The excess rainfall forecast in zone 8, a subsistence staple-cereal production area, is a matter of concern, as the soil degradation can cause landslides and floods that could severely damage crops.

Above-normal cyclone activity in the Atlantic watershed is forecast for August to October 2007 by the Colorado State University (CSU), TSR/O Group and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Markets, trade and food access

Figure 3. Nominal maize consumer prices, regional markets FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FHIA/SIMPAH July 2007

Above-normal increases in the consumer price of maize have been experienced during the hunger season from April to August (Figure 3), due to the high international price of maize, which impacts Honduras given that the country depends on imports to meet nearly 50 percent of the national maize demand. The primera maize harvest is expected to increase the availability of the cereal in markets, thus contributing to stabilize the consumer price starting in September.

In the short term, these price increases may benefit subsistence producers, who sell up to 70 percent of their production, as they would generate greater income from the sale of their crop. The problem is that household production is low enough such that the 30 percent that isn’t sold is consumed within a maximum of two months, at which point households have to turn back to the market to purchase their food at the market prices.

Through June, the price of beans was normal with regular seasonal increases. However, in July, the price unexpectedly increased by 31 percent, which is severely impacting poor households’ access to this basic food. The reason for this significant price increase has not yet been established.