Executive summary

Figure 1: Current estimated food security conditions (February 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2: Most-likely scenario: Estimated food security conditions (July 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3: Worst-case scenario: Estimated food security conditions (July 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• The food and nutrition security situation is currently stable. Good harvests in 2006 and normal demand for unskilled labor in the agricultural sector has improved the situation of many households. However, 1.8 million people face chronic food insecurity.

• Food and nutrition security is expected to deteriorate from February to July. The price of maize will increase, reducing access for poor households that depend on the market for most of their food. The number of people in food and nutrition insecurity will not increase in this scenario compared to the current situation. However, food insecurity will intensify in poor households that depend highly on the purchase of food, and the situation will contribute to a recurring cycle in which poor households sell their assets to generate income to buy food.

• In the worst-case scenario, the increase in the price of maize will be even more severe, causing increases in the prices of other commodities and reducing food access for a larger number of poor families. El Niño will also cause an irregular start of rains which normally begin in April or May. This will delay the sowing of the primera season, extend the end of the hunger season from August to October and reduce the demand for labor in May and June. The number of people in food insecurity will rise by 200,000.

Current food and nutrition security situation

The current food and nutrition security situation is stable. The 2006/07 agricultural year crops of staple cereals were above the five-year average (Figure 4). Maize production increased by 13 percent compared to last year, and bean production remained the same (an estimated 96,000 tons), with which subsistence producers have filled their reserves. The demand for unskilled labor was within the expected range during the current coffee cutting and sugar cane harvesting season from October to March, which is the most significant seasonal income source for many poor households in the country. About 500,000 people participate in cutting coffee and about 200,000 people in harvesting sugar cane.

Even though the current food security situation is stable, there are high levels of food and nutrition insecurity in the country. Guatemala has the highest levels of chronic malnutrition of all the American countries, and very high poverty levels. In 2001, more than 51 percent of elementary students in half of the country’s municipalities suffered from stunting (both moderate and severe), which is the clearest indicator of food and nutrition insecurity. Landless rural families and smallholder farmers are the groups most affected by food insecurity in the country. Another group facing high levels of food insecurity, frequently overlooked, is artisan fishermen in the country’s coastal areas (livelihoods zones 4 and 13).

The areas with the country’s highest levels of food and nutrition insecurity are located in the highlands and some areas in the east (orange-shaded zones in Figure 1). The eastern zone is located in an area that experiences recurrent drought, and non-irrigated agriculture faces severe obstacles. The highland is sloped and isolated with a single maize harvest per year and reduced income generating options. 

Figure 4: Annual maize production, in thousands of tons FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: UPIE, MAGA The 2005 figure is an estimate based on the trend identified by FAOSTAT, and that for 2006 according to La Prensa newspaper releases.

Beyond chronic food insecurity, there are communities in the highland area that face above-normal vulnerability, since they experienced agricultural losses due to frosts by the end of 2006, reducing their income and food sources. Subsistence production provides 25 percent of income and 35 percent of basic food consumed within the household in the affected municipalities, representing four months of income, and three months of food for the year.

An estimated 1.8 million people currently face food insecurity. Of these, about 1.7 million people are receiving some type of food aid, but not necessarily on a permanent basis or meeting their nutritional needs. Added to this estimate, there are nearly 500,000 children receiving school feeding.

Most-likely food security scenario

In the most-likely scenario through July 2007, the food security situation will be affected by the increase in the price of maize, which will reduce food access. The primera rains will start as usual in April/May.

The expected increase in the price of maize will have a significant impact due to the important role that this cereal plays in the Guatemalan economy and consumption patterns. Furthermore, the processed food industry that supplies the livestock sector imports nearly 90 percent of maize to cover its requirements, and the increase in the international market price will therefore affect other prices at the national level.

The increase in prices will reduce poor households’ access to food. According to the livelihoods study carried out by MFEWS and its partners in 2005, in the zones with the highest food insecurity – the highlands in livelihood zone 5 and the Ch'ortí area in livelihood zone 8, in the Chiquimula and Zacapa departments – poor households purchase 75 and 70 percent of their food respectively, which places them in a very vulnerable situation when the basic food prices increase. The primera harvest will lessen the impact of the price increase, but it does not come until August in the Ch’ortí area and until December in the highlands. Households’ reserves from previous harvests will last until April or May 2007, and their food access will be constrained from then until the next harvest comes.

The increase in maize prices could also impact planting patterns. The various institutions that have promoted diversification as a means to improve the diet are concerned that the progress achieved in this area will be lost, as the high price of maize could promote monoculture production of this product, which will negatively impact the household nutrition.

The increase in maize prices will affect the food and nutrition security of the 1.8 million people who are currently food insecure. The most-affected zones will be those where the poor population is more dependent on the purchase of food (Figure 5). Maize price control measures are recommended.

Worst-case food security scenario

The most severe situation foreseen for the first semester of 2007 differs from the most-likely scenario in that the increase in maize prices will significantly influence the prices of other products, and there will be an irregular start of the rainy season. Sustained price increases are foreseen for maize, nixtamal flour, chicken, pork and beef, eggs and dairy products, as they all use maize as a production input.

Figure 5: Livelihood zones where purchase represents more than 50 percent of the food source for poor households FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

The irregular start of the rainy season, caused by the El Niño phenomenon, will affect food security in different ways. Rains usually begin in April or May, and even though there will be rain during these months in 2007, it is expected to be irregular. If a farmer sows before the onset of rains, there is risk of a yield reduction or of crop loss. Other farmers will not plant until they are certain that the rains have started, which implies a delay in the staple cereal sowing, normally carried out in April and May. With this delay in sowing, the harvesting will be delayed and the hunger season will be extended. In the households experiencing food insecurity, food is scarce from April through August, when they normally harvest. But in this scenario, the harvest would come one or two months later, extending that period until September or October.

Late sowing also exposes crops to pests and plagues, and the risk of low yields and crop loss is higher. Moreover, the proliferation of plagues implies higher production costs and lower profit for the producer.

In addition to the direct impact that will be experienced by crop loss (used both for own consumption as well as for sale), the harvest reduction also decreases the demand for labor in agriculture and the income generated by daily wages.

The El Niño phenomenon will also influence water availability. Several communities depend on surface water for human consumption, and a reduction in the availability and quality of water as a result of an extended dry season will affect the use of food, causing nutrition and health problems. The decreased water availability will also reduce the capacity to develop agriculture and cattle activities.

These hazards will decrease food availability at different levels:

• At the national level, food availability will be diminished by the influence of regional markets, which will purchase the maize inventories (either legally or as contraband).
• At the department level, the highlands will be affected most severely due to the staple cereal vegetative cycle that in this zone takes seven months, while in the coast maize is produced in three months. As a result, the farming of short-cycle grains to cover the decreased availability cannot be promoted in the highlands, as even if they sowed in May or June the harvests would not come out until the end of the year. Any delays caused by the irregular start of the rains would further delay the harvest until next year in this area.
• At the household level, food access will be affected by crop losses on one hand, and by the loss of income on the other. Income will be affected by the loss of crops for sale and by the reduction of income from the sale of labor in the staple cereal production.

In the short term, the combination of the phenomena will result in an increase in infant and elderly malnutrition and morbility (from May to October, when the next harvest comes out). In the long term, livelihoods will be affected due to household coping mechanisms, such as sale of assets and migration.

In this scenario, although all poor households throughout the country that depend on the purchase of food will be affected, the poor population in the drought belt, including the Ch’ortí area, will be the most severely affected. It is estimated that this scenario will affect 200,000 additional people beyond the 1.8 million already food insecure.

There are several options to mitigate this situation, including staple cereal trade policies, laws against hoarding, price controls, strengthening boarder controls to prevent smuggling and promoting productive short-cycle maize production programs in suitable areas. It is also important to promote the production of drought-resistant crops, increase the establishment of irrigation systems and conduct educational campaigns for the proper handling and disinfection of water for human consumption.

Even with these response options, households that experience production losses in the east of the country and those who lose employment opportunities in the staple cereal production during the months of March through August may require assistance to feed their families starting in May. They will continue to need assistance until their next harvests come out or until they find alternate income generating activities, such as cutting of coffee and sugar cane harvesting.

It is important to communicate the situation and the outlook on the agricultural cycle to producers, so that they are able to make informed decisions.