Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (Jul to Sep) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• In the southern and central areas of Mozambique most affected by drought, household food reserves have run out, and access to food through markets is very limited, especially for poor households. Immediate food distribution is needed for the most vulnerable households, including those headed by the elderly, children and widows.

• In the south, food prices, especially for maize, remain above the five-year average, thereby limiting food access for many households. According to the Agricultural Markets Information System (SIMA), flows of maize from the central region to markets in the south are decreasing.

• The World Food Program is expected to meet the food requirement needs of 469,334 people from October through December as part of the overall response to this year’s drought, corresponding to 90 percent of the population estimated to need food assistance.

• The main rainy season is expected to begin in October and November in most of the country. Rains are forecast to be normal or above normal during the season throughout the country, which indicates a favorable agricultural season. A good start of the rains in October may lead to gradual availability of the green harvest starting in January and February 2008, and will increase the availability of agricultural labor opportunities.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Food security summary

Many households affected by drought in early 2007 have run out of cereal reserves, and there is an immediate need to start food distribution in the semi-arid areas of southern and central Mozambique. Households in these areas are generally cash-poor and have limited opportunities to diversify their livelihoods beyond agricultural production. Some families can still cope with the effects of the drought by selling animals, firewood and other forest products. However, there are many other families with fewer resources, especially those headed by the elderly, children or widows, that need immediate food assistance. These households are currently being assisted by local safety nets such as gifts from better-off community members, but more substantial resources will be needed to meet the needs of the entire affected population. Elsewhere, in areas that are benefiting from good access to markets or that have access to non-agricultural income-generating opportunities, food security conditions remain stable.

In many areas of the south, water for human and animal consumption is becoming scarce, and many sources have run completely dry. Accessing water for animals is increasingly difficult, pasture is drying up, and most of the semi-arid areas of the south and parts of the central region are exhibiting below-normal vegetation. Moreover, livestock prices are fluctuating, and terms of trade are deteriorating as households engage in distress sale of livestock to purchase food, which erodes their coping capacity.

Based on the results of the GAV assessment, the government is working with WFP and provincial authorities to identify the hardest-hit areas in each of the three disaster zones (floods, cyclone and drought) and to formulate a coordinated response. Recently, GAV estimated that about 520,000 people, or approximately 3 percent of the total population, require emergency food assistance (figure 2).

Figure 2. Spatial distribution of the people in need in areas affected by drought, floods and cyclone. FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SETSAN/GAV and INGC

Given the World Food Program’s food aid pipeline status, targeting process and implementing partner capacity, WFP is expected to meet the food requirement needs of 469,334 people from October through December as part of the overall emergency response to this year’s drought. A daily ration per person of 500g of cereals, 60g of pulses and 20g of vegetable oil will be distributed. To date, WFP has procured nearly 38,000 metric tons of food commodities locally, for in-country use and relief operations in Zimbabwe.

The WFP emergency assistance will be distributed in the following ways, depending on local needs and the capability of partners and district authorities:

1. Food for assets - community-based selection of activities with technical support included in the partnership;
2. Food for work – in support of government resettlement programs, with technical support provided by the government/partners; and
3. Vulnerable group feeding – direct food distributions to the most vulnerable households, including those led by orphans, the elderly or the chronically ill or other households with no economically active adults.

If food security conditions deteriorate during the upcoming lean season, such as if food prices increase substantially or poor rainfall limits agricultural labor opportunities, WFP and partners anticipate a gradual scaling up of emergency food assistance after January and ending in March of next year, just prior to the next major harvest.

The next monitoring assessment by GAV is planned for October. The overall objective is to evaluate the current food security conditions, project conditions through March 2008 and direct the interventions. The report is expected to be released at the end of October, and should enable the projection of when to phase-out or scale-up assistance based on the expected performance of the upcoming season. Assistance may not be required through the very end of March for some of the affected populations if the rains start on time and are sufficient to enable recovery via the availability of green food by January. If deviations from the existing outlook occur, it is imperative that response plans be adjusted.

Preparation for the new agriculture season

In most of the southern and central provinces, land preparation is underway as the on-set of the 2007/08 season approaches. In preparation for the new agriculture season, in September and October the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) will assist 25,000 families with input trade fairs in the flooding-related resettlement camps in the Zambezi Valley in coordination with district authorities. FAO is also supporting small-scale irrigation projects in semi-arid areas of Gaza, Inhambane and Tete.

The Ministry of Agriculture action plan to mitigate the effects of drought is moving forward, although some activities have been constrained due to lack of funds. Input trade fairs are being planned for all drought-affected districts in the southern region. It is expected that that the input fairs will benefit approximately 112,000 households. However, funds have only been committed to finance about 25 percent of the intended trade fairs.

In other places, the majority of the households are meeting their seasonal seed needs by saving traditional seeds or through market purchases.

Maize prices increase in south

Maize prices are rising, following the normal seasonal trend. However, declining food reserves and supply levels in the southern region are pushing staple food prices above the average and last year’s prices. In Maxixe and Massinga markets, two reference markets in the south, maize prices in August were 16 percent and 15 percent above the five-year average, respectively (figure 3).

In most areas of the south, households depend heavily on their own crop production for food and income. In a bad harvest year, most households rely on the markets to purchase food, but higher prices limit the amounts that poor and middle-income households can afford. So far, current maize prices are still within the reach of most households, but this may change as prices keep rising abnormally and most households lose their purchasing power. It is expected that by November, December and January, prices may reach their peak before the seasonal drop in February/March in anticipation of the harvest onset. On the other hand, in central and northern regions, maize prices are stable and below average as result of the relatively good agriculture season (see Beira and Nampula, reference markets for the central and northern regions, in figure 3).

SIMA reports that maize flows are following their normal seasonal trends, which is causing a gradual decrease of maize supply in southern markets, consistent with the seasonal pattern. The main reference markets in the south, Chókwe and Maputo, are receiving maize from the central region. For instance, the maize sold in Maputo markets originates in Gorongosa in Sofala province and Guro in Manica, while most of the maize sold in Chókwe originates in Manica province. The maize supplied to Beira, the main central city, is mostly from Nhamatanda and Maríngue in Sofala province, while most of Zambézia province and the northern region are supplied by local production.

Figure 3. Real maize retail prices in reference markets, in meticais per kg

FULL-SIZE IMAGE Data source: SIMA

Figure 4. Historical onset of rains by dekad, 10-year average (1996 to 2005) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Seasonal climate outlook

The main October to March rainy season, which corresponds to the main agricultrual season, is about to begin in Mozambique. Seasonal rains normally start in November in most of the country, with the exception of the southern-most portion of Maputo Province, where rains start in October (figure 4). By mid-November, the rainy season has normally started across much of the country, including some of the productive zones in central Mozambique and much of the semi-arid south. The latest start-of-rains occurs in the northern part of the country (Nampula, Niassa and Cabo Delgado provinces) and parts of Zambézia and Tete provinces and the semi-arid zone in the south, where the season does not normally begin until December.

The prevailing La Niña conditions will likely lead to a near-normal rainy season, as La Niña is historically associated with normal to above-normal rainfall. Although localized flooding and tropical storms are possible, an overall good season is expected.

A 2007/08 seasonal forecast was established by international, regional and national climate experts that released a consensus outlook for the 2007/08 rainy season at the eleventh Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-11) held in Maseru, Lesotho on September 13-14, 2007. The outlook for Mozambique forecasts near-normal to above-normal rainfall for the whole country during the entire season (October 2007 – March 2008). For the first half of the season (October-December 2007), the whole country has increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall (figure 5a). For the second half of the season (January-March 2008), most of the central region and all of the northern region has an increased chance of receiving above-normal rainfall, while the southern part of the country has an increased chance of receiving near-normal to above-normal rainfall (figure 5b).

Figure 5a: Forecast for October-December 2007	Figure 5b: Forecast for January-March 2008
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		Source: SADC Drought Monitoring Centre

Note: The numbers for each zone indicate the probabilities of rainfall in each of the three categories: below-normal, normal and above-normal. The top number indicates the probability of above-normal rainfall, the middle number is for normal rainfall, and the bottom number is for below-normal rainfall. For example, in the figure on the left, for Mozambique there is a 35 percent likelihood of above-normal rainfall; a 40 percent likelihood of normal rainfall; and a 25 percent likelihood of below-normal rainfall.

Although there is a 75 percent likelihood of a normal or above-normal rainy season, below-normal rainfall is still possible, and has an estimated 25 percent likelihood. Also, despite the relatively normal forecast, the outlook for the 2007/08 rainfall season does not take into account potential excessive rainfall that may occur due to tropical cyclones. Tropical disturbances, including cyclone conditions and other locally driven weather systems, cannot be accurately predicted on a seasonal basis. Based on the above forecast, the Early Warning Group for Food Security of the Ministry of Agriculture is developing projections of the water requirement satisfaction index for crops, as well as preparing technical recommendations for farmers. This information is expected to be released soon.

Scientists from the outlook forum have advised that the regional seasonal prediction is relevant only to seasonal time scales and relatively large areas, and local and month-to-month variations may occur. To address local weather patterns, the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) will prepare a downscaled analysis valid within the national boundaries. Users are strongly advised to contact the INAM for interpretation of this outlook or for additional guidance and updates.