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Agricultural Production Office (DPA) (Ministry of Agriculture)

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Food security remained stable in Chad between July and August as a result of a good 2006/07 harvest which produced surplus production and left most households with adequate household food reserves. However, limited pockets of food insecurity centered in the Sahelian zone where food insecurity is chronic during the lean season did exist.

The 2007/08 agricultural season is progressing well. Crop development is advanced over most of the country’s agricultural areas. Early sorghum, millet and maize are at the heading to waxy ripeness stages of crop development. Maize has already been harvested in the southern part of the country.

Food Security Conditions in At-Risk Areas

Households in the structurally food deficit areas of the Sahelian zone as well as refugees and IDPs are the most vulnerable to food insecurity in Chad. The food security of each of these groups is analyzed below.

Structurally food deficit Sahelian areas

Structural food deficits in the northern Sahelian zone, including Kanem, Batha, Ouaddai and Guera, were less noticeable this year than in previous years. While some households faced difficulties, there have been no serious problems this year. The June 2007 joint food security and nutrition survey found greater availability of household food stocks than last at the same time last year, due to conservative management of households stocks.

Cereal prices, especially for millet, remained stable, with a slight downward tendency. In June, 79 percent of households in the Kanem region had bought millet for 200 to 300 CFAF per kg. In Mao, the price remained at 200 CFAF until August. Households in the northern Sahelian zone limited the sale of animals in order to purchase food, given that it was possible to supply cereals from other sources.

Sudanese refugees

General distributions of food aid to the Sudanese refugees proceeded normally in all twelve Sudanese refugee camps in eastern Chad in July and August 2007, despite difficult access to the Iriba, Goz Beida, Farchana and Gaga camps due to poor rainy season road conditions. Food aid distributions provided approximately 230,000 beneficiaries with 3,948 metric tons (MT) of food in July and 3,958 MT in August.

Prepositioning of food aid in the camps in preparation for the rainy season was completed in July and the food aid stocks currently in place are sufficient to cover the needs of the refugees and displaced persons until November 2007.

Internally Displaced Persons in eastern Chad

Distributions of general food aid and seed protection rations were completed at all internally displaced persons (IDP) sites covered by the World Food Programme (WFP). Approximately 150,000 IDPs received food aid to cover the period from August to September. The next food distribution is scheduled for the end of September.

An action plan to ensure proper planning of IDP food distributions through December 2007 was implemented by the Groupe Sectoriel sur la Sécurité Alimentaire (Sectoral Group on Food Security).

The limited survival strategies and the lack of certain equipment led some IDP households to sell part of the food aid they received. As a result these households risk being short of food before the next distribution. WFP has undertaken a post-distribution evaluation survey at six IDP sites (Kourougoun, Koloma, Gassiré, Koubigou, Kerfi and Ideter) in order to gain an understanding of the situation. The survey began on August 13 at the Koubigou site, and data analysis is in process.

Floods are threatening the IDP sites located near Koukou Angarana, where the Bahr Azoum River may overflow. A contingency plan to respond to potential flooding has been drawn up by the humanitarian agencies operating in the area.

A nutritional survey undertaken from May 26 to June 25 by the WFP and UNICEF showed that only 2.2% of households at the IDP sites possessed cereal reserves derived from their own agricultural production. Essentially, these displaced persons are depending on food aid during the this year’s lean period. Yet, despite the provision of seeds, agricultural equipment and seed protection rations, IDPs have limited access to land suitable for cultivation which will limit their productive capacity for the current agricultural season. In combination these factors suggest that the IDPs will remain at least partially dependent on food aid throughout 2008.

Central African Republic refugees

Food conditions continue to improve for refugees from the Central African Republic as they begin to harvest fresh products from early crops, which supplement the food distributions. However, new refugees continue to flood into southern Chad due to civil insecurity in northern Central African Republic. These refugees have not yet had time to establish agricultural activities and are highly vulnerable to food insecurity.

A joint mission is scheduled in September 2007 to evaluate the food security of CAR refugees. This mission would help refocus the current transition strategy for these populations of gradually substituting development actions for aid.

Nutritional Conditions

Sudanese Refugees

Nutrition data for Sudanese refugees is no longer up to date. The last representative data on the nutritional condition is from September of 2006. United Nations agencies and their governmental and non-governmental partners are therefore planning a new survey for mid-October 2007.

Central African Republic refugees

Table 1. Prevalence of malnutrition in children 6 to 59 months of age in the IDP community FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Joint nutritional survey, May/June  2007

The latest representative nutritional survey of refugees from CAR was conducted in June 2007 by COOPI, an NGO. This survey found acute malnutrition rates in the camps of 4 percent at Amboko, 2 percent at Gondje and 9 percent at Dosseye. The higher rates found at Dosseye refugee camp were found to be caused by the fact that this camp is receiving newly arrived refugees who are often in a serious state of malnutrition after their journey. In addition until July 2007, this camp had no capacity to treating malnutrition cases before they became serious. Previously, severely malnourished patients were evacuated to the Amboko Nutritional Therapy Center.

Internally Displaced Persons

Displaced persons from eastern Chad constitute a community at risk from several factors, including malnutrition. The latest joint survey by UNICEF, WFP, WHO and the Chadian government in four regions (Ouaddai, Kanem, Guera and Batha) shows that the levels of malnutrition in these communities exceed acceptable thresholds for children 6 to 59 months of age (see Table 1), despite the considerable efforts of the UN agencies, NGOs and the government to meet the primary needs of these populations.

International standards identify an acute malnutrition rate greater than 15 percent (GAM) as a situation requiring emergency intervention. The results of this survey show that the rates of acute malnutrition (GAM)range from 16 percent in Batha to 23 percent in Guera and all exceeded the 15 percent threshold (Table 2). In 2004, the Chad Demographic and Health Survey reported acute malnutrition rates of 20 percent for the zone including Kanem, 18 percent for the zone including Batha and Guera and 13 percent for the zone including Ouaddai and Wadi Fira. The situation in 2007 is more or less the same in Kanem, but had significant deteriorated in Ouaddai and Guera. The fact that the joint survey in May and June of 2007 was conducted at the beginning of the lean period cannot alone account for the observed changes.

Table 2. Prevalence of malnutrition among IDPs in four regions of Chad FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Joint nutritional survey, May-June 2007

Acute malnutrition affects both IDPs and the general population in eastern Chad. For example, although Guera is only affected by the humanitarian crisis in a limited way and is less food deficit than areas such as Kanem, it has a higher rate of acute malnutrition (23 percent GAM). This clearly illustrates that acute malnutrition is not the result of food deficits alone. Other factors underlie these unacceptably high levels of malnutrition, which deserve a more in-depth investigation.

Figure 1. Prevalence of malnutrition by age groups in Chad FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Joint nutritional survey, May-June 2007

Another important fact to note is the difference between the prevalence of acute malnutrition in the IDP community (22 percent) and in the general population of Ouaddai (18 percent), the region that has taken them in. This gap shows the precariousness of the IDPs’ situation and the fact that they are at greater risk. However, contrary to what is observed for global acute malnutrition, the rate of severe acute malnutrition in the IDP community (2 percent) is lower than that in the general population of Ouaddai (4 percent). This difference results in part from the actions of the agencies and NGOs involved with the nutrition, food security and health programs at the IDP sites. At the same time, it suggests the importance of similar actions to benefit the general population, not only in Ouaddai but in other regions as well.

To compare with other countries in the sub-region, the rate of acute malnutrition recorded in these four regions of Chad is on the same order of magnitude as that reported in Burkina Faso in May 2007 – 18 percent – but much higher than that in Niger in June 2007, which was 11 percent, and in Mauritania, which was 8 percent in February 2007.

Chronic malnutrition affects the Kanem and Batha regions especially. To a certain extent, this is in line with the level of food insecurity present in these two regions, where the highest proportions of food insecure households are found. Finally, it is important to note that regardless of the type of malnutrition considered, it has the greatest effect on children between 12 and 36 months of age (Figure 1). It is within this age group that weaning occurs and the child changes from mother’s milk to solid foods. This transition is poorly defined in local traditional practices, which can increase the risk of malnutrition.

Rainfall, agriculture and pasture conditions

In most of the country’s agricultural lands, the rains stopped periodically in June but resumed their normal pace in July and continued until the end of August. They were well distributed in spatially and temporally, and allowed crops to develop normally. By the end of August, sorghum, early millet and maize grown in the Sahelian zone had approached the waxy ripeness stage.

In some areas of the Sahelian zone, planting was late and continued until the beginning of August, especially in the Lac Region.

Plant health conditions were relatively normal throughout the country. However, some grasshopper attacks on rice were observed, destroying about 1,500 ha of crops and leading to late replanting in three districts of the Gounou-Gaya sub-prefecture. A similar situation was observed for rice in three districts of the Tandjilé Region, where the damage is reportedly worse.

In the Mayo Kébbi Est Region, migratory African locusts caused as yet unassessed damage to crops in the Katoa and Guélendeng sub-prefectures. The presence of huge numbers of grain-eating birds in the northern part of Lac and western Kanem is also endangering crops that already are having problems.

Otherwise, the heavy rains in August caused flooding throughout the country, which damaged habitats, property and crops. Aside from the floods, rainfall data from the second dekad of August show that precipitation in July and August was abundant and covered the entire agricultural zone, except for northern Batha and a large part of Kanem.

There was a slight to moderate rainfall deficit over most of the agricultural zone as compared to the short-term average in the second dekad of August. Southern Batha recorded a significant shortage, whereas a significant excess occurred in Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental and the east-central part of Hadjer Lamis. Rainfall was below the long-term average over the entire agricultural zone, with the greatest shortfall being in the central and eastern part of this zone (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Estimate of rainfall in the second dekad of August 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: NOAA, Analyses: FEWS NET/Chad

Vegetation conditions and livestock farming conditions

The vegetation line progressed into the northern part of the Sahelian zone after rains in the third dekad of July (Figure 3). The line is currently in the center of Kanem, north of Batha and south of Ennedi, giving these locations abundant pasture and full watering holes. The simultaneous presence of watering holes and browse cover has helped create favorable conditions for the return of seasonally migratory herders to areas in the northern Sahelian strip, except in the extreme south of Kanem and the central part of Batha, which received rain shortfalls.

Figure 3. Estimate of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the second dekad of August 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: NOAA. Interpretation FEWS NET Chad

In contrast, there was a shortage of pasture in the second dekad of August, compared to conditions last year at the same time throughout a large part of the southern zone and the Sudanian/Sahelian strip. If the ponds last in this northern Sahelian strip, they will cause the migratory herders to remain longer and will delay their return to the south, which is often a source of conflict between farmers and herders.

Animal health conditions have been relatively stable throughout the country during these two months, although a few cases of soil-borne diseases, foot and mouth disease, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, small stock plague and, in fowls, Newcastle disease have been recorded.

Figure 4. Millet prices on four main cereal markets in Chad (August 2006 to August 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIM, Analyses: FEWS NET Chad

Food Prices and Access

Millet Prices

The variation in cereal prices from July to August can be seen on four of the country’s cereal markets (Figure 4). Despite the appearance of fresh products (maize, cassava, sweet potato and groundnuts) on southern markets, millet prices rose 13 percent on the Moundou market and 4 percent on the Sarh market due to the effects of sustained demand.

In the Sahelian zone, prices increased by 2 percent in the N’Djamena market, while prices dropped by 4 percent in the Abéché market for the same period. These slight variations in the middle of the lean period are unusual for this time of year. The cereals available from the last two surplus harvests, expectations of an average to good 2007/08 season and the supply of fresh products on these markets are reducing the demand for cereals, and may be contributing to the unusual price movements.

When compared to last year and the average, current millet prices reflect the favorable current access conditions for cereals. Millet prices this August are lower than August 2006 prices by 21 percent, 13 percent, 39 percent and 40 percent on the N’Djamena, Abéché, Moundou and Sarh markets, respectively. Compared to the average for the past five years, the decreases for the same markets are respectively 25 percent, 17 percent, 35 percent and 38 percent. The prices for substitution cereals, such as sorghum, are generally showing the same trends on these markets.

Terms of trade: millet per head of sheep

The price of a sheep on the N’Djamena market dropped to 21,500 CFAF in August 2007 from 25,000 CFAF in July, a reduction of 14 percent in the return a herder would have gained for his animal. This price reduction can be explained by the fact that many animals are being sold on the market at the same time, as the migratory herders arrive in N’Djamena, and also by the poor butchering quality of the animals after the lean period. During the same period, sustained demand for pearl millet led to a slight increase of 2 percent for this product, causing the terms of trade for millet to deteriorate unfavorably for herders.

Figure 5. Terms of trade, sheep/millet, on the N’Djamena Market, August 2006 to August 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Sources: SIM/FEWS NET, Analyses: FEWS NET

A herder trading an average sheep for 161 kg of millet in July 2007 received only 136 kg in return for the sheep in August 2007, a loss of 25 kg of millet per sheep sold (Figure 5). Notwithstanding this loss, a seasonal analysis shows that the terms of trade remained favorable for the herder, given that in August 2006 he would have received only 106 kg of millet in exchange for his sheep. Still, the seasonal trends in millet and sheep prices show that the terms of trade, which are generally unfavorable to herders beginning in August, will not improve until close to Tabaski (a mutton feast that comes in October this year).