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Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (Jul to Sep) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2. Estimated most-likely food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3. Estimated worst-case food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MoA/GoU, WFP/UN agencies, NGOs Graphics: FEWS NET Uganda

• Food security in northern and northeastern Uganda is improving, due to gradual increases in food production in the north and early harvests in Karamoja. Nonetheless, about 2.1 million people remain food insecure in these areas. In the rest of the country, food security is generally good following the first-season harvests in June.

• From October to December, food security is expected to improve in the north, as improved civil security will enable people to access and cultivate more land, leading to a decent harvest in November/December. In Karamoja, the main harvest will be below normal but better than last year, increasing the availability of food. Stable civil security will improve mobility and access to markets, and good conditions for livestock will further increase food security. In the rest of the country, regular rains will lead to a normal harvest in November and good food security. The number of food insecure people in this scenario will decrease to 1.6 million.

• In the worst-case scenario, civil insecurity will increase in the north, causing re-displacement and reduced access to land. In the northeast, poor rains in August and September could lead to an even poorer-than-expected harvest in November, and household food stocks from the harvest could be exhausted by the end of the year. The number of food insecure people would stay at 2.1 million, and the severity of food insecurity would increase for these people.

Current food security conditions, July to September 2007

About 1.49 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) remain in camps or are in transit back to their homes in northern Uganda. Humanitarian conditions in the region remain deplorable, as the IDPs lack adequate access to health, shelter, water and sanitation facilities, and many continue to suffer widespread high levels of food insecurity as they are unable to meet a major proportion of their food needs due to inadequate access to land and inputs to cultivate enough food over numerous recurrent seasons. The IDPs depend on food aid provided by the World Food Programme (WFP) for as much as fifty percent of their needs. Although the IDPs were able to increase their access to agricultural land to cultivate crops in the first season this year (April to June), a delayed onset of the rains in April and May and sporadic rains throughout the season caused harvests to falter in July, hampering initial improvement in their food production and food security.

In Karamoja, a chronically food insecure unimodal area in northeastern Uganda, household food security has improved slightly after a poor harvest last year. Early crop harvests have started, increasing supplies of cereals and green vegetables, and livestock have returned to areas closer to homesteads, augmenting the availability of animal products such as milk and meat. An assessment in July 2007 led by WFP established that crop and food security conditions were good, and that food distributions to households affected by last year’s poor season were not needed beyond July.

A highly contagious disease, Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR), is affecting small ruminants (sheep and goats) in Karamoja, and may have crossed into neighboring districts through commercial livestock sales and the movement of livestock. The disease has reduced the size of herds, directly affecting households’ food security by reducing their sources of income and food. The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries finally confirmed in July the presence of the disease, and is only now drawing up control plans, seeking assistance and starting to manage the disease.

The first-season harvest that started in June in bimodal areas that comprise most the country has increased food supplies and enabled normal access to food for most households. Incidences of crop and livestock diseases, including banana bacterial wilt and foot and mouth disease, are under manageable levels. There are no significant threats to food security and income in these areas for now.

Currently, 2.1 million people face moderate to high levels of food insecurity, primarily in the north and in Karamoja. Approximately 1.6 million are receiving food assistance.

Most-likely food security scenario, October to December 2007

The most likely scenario from October to December in northern Uganda is a continuation of relative calm, leading to stabilization of civil security in Gulu, Kitgum and Pader (Acholi sub-region). More IDPs will gradually resettle back in their homes, improving their access to productive resources to cultivate food and increase their production. Health, water, sanitation and shelter will still be limited in supply, as most villages were abandoned when the people fled to camps, and such services have not been maintained over the years. Full resettlement will be attained in Lira and Oyam districts (Lango sub-region) where all IDPs will have returned home, and development should be the focus.

As IDPs return home, the need for basic services of water, sanitation, health, shelter and education will increase, and investment in these areas will be required to support returnee populations. With sustained civil security, more IDPs are expected to access and cultivate wider land areas, supported by normal rains in the second season from August to November. This will increase their harvest prospects at the end of the year. Food aid will still, however, be required to supplement the IDPs’ second-season production in December, when food gaps will still be evident. With sustained civil security, IDPs’ access to land will gradually improve, and if supported by the availability of tools and inputs and normal rains in coming seasons, their productivity and production will increase and enhance their food security. Nonetheless, it will still take at least two to three more seasons (until late 2008) for IDPs to attain self-sufficiency and normal food security to return.

In Karamoja, the harvest that begins in September/October is expected to be below normal. A more than one-month delay in rains in April and May hampered the onset of the season, and farmers were late in cultivating crops (primarily cereals and pulses). Below-normal rains for the remainder of the season have further dampened prospects for the harvest. Nonetheless, harvest projections indicate that though below normal, production this year will be better than last year and will sustain most of the population until early 2008, reducing the need for general food assistance in the short term. Further, improvements in civil security in Karamoja will increase household mobility and access to fields and markets for alternative sources of food. The rains have also increased vegetation and therefore the availability of pasture and ground water supplies in the region, enabling adequate access for livestock that are back closer to the homesteads. Households with livestock will have improved access to milk and meat, and can sell animals and use the proceeds to access food from markets where livestock/cereal terms of trade remain stable, allowing these households adequate food. The incidence of Pest des Petits Ruminants shall continue to affect small ruminants, although it will be controlled from spreading beyond its current extent.

In bimodal areas, normal to above-normal rains from August to November will lead to a good second season in November. Normal harvests will be produced, which will support adequate food security. Livestock conditions will be good, ensuring adequate pastures and water, and the incidence of livestock disease will be minimal. Overall, households will enjoy good food security.

Compared to the current food security scenario, the number of food insecure people will decrease to about 1.6 million. Food assistance, including targeted programs, will reach approximately 1.6 million people up to December 2007.

Worst-case food security scenario, October to December 2007

In the worst-case scenario, the peace process in northern Uganda will stall, causing any gains made since early 2007 to be lost as renewed insurgency and civil insecurity take root, leading to re-displacement and renewed relocation of the population to confinement in camps. This would reduce IDPs’ access to arable land, causing poor production in the second season in November, and basic services, leading to deteriorated food security and humanitarian conditions in Aruu, Gulu, Kitgum and Pader districts by December. Markets and marketing channels in the regions would be adversely affected, and with the reduced own-food production by the end of 2007, the region could see increased and continuing high levels of food insecurity.

In Karamoja, below-normal rains in August and September and increased civil insecurity would further reduce prospects for crop production and access to fields, leading to a lower harvest in September/October and poor replenishment of household food stocks that would be quickly used up as early as December 2007. Market supplies continue to be received from neighboring districts, but high demand sustains higher-than-normal cereal prices, which would negatively impact the livestock/cereal terms of trade and thereby reduce households’ purchasing power. Also, not all households have stocks or can access markets, limiting their coping mechanisms and putting them at risk of being highly food insecure as early as the end of 2007 or by early 2008. Inadequate livestock access to pastures and water will further curtail livestock recovery, also leading to increased food insecurity in the later part of 2007 and the first half of 2008.

Below-normal second season rains from August to November in bimodal agricultural and pastoral areas would lead to a below-normal harvest in November/December and limit livestock access to pastures and water. Lower production would limit market supplies. Additionally, the incidence of banana bacterial wilt and food and mouth diseases will increase, but not to epidemic levels, requiring immediate revamping of management and control mechanisms. The low second-season harvests, reduced supplies on markets and reduced livestock quality would negatively impact households’ access to food. Nonetheless, adequate food security would be ensured in these areas through various coping mechanisms, including remittances from relatives in urban areas, sharing and other social safety nets, thereby limiting the impact of harvest losses.

In this scenario, the number of food insecure people would increase beyond 2.1 million, and areas of Karamoja will remain moderately food insecure. Still, about 1.6 million will require food assistance through December 2007 and beyond.