Executive Summary

• Current food security is affected by limited grain transfers as a result of production shortfalls due to less than optimal rainfall conditions and rising prices for grain crops. These rainfall conditions are also responsible for shortages of pasture in the northern reaches of the country, forcing pastoralists to move farther south, which could trigger access disputes with local residents.

• In general, the outlook for the next few months is for increasingly tight market supplies of locally grown grain crops and rising prices, with prices for livestock expected to come down. This scenario could usher in the lean period earlier than usual for those dependent on local markets for their food supplies.

• It is highly unlikely that the worst-case scenario will materialize; this scenario would involve heavy pressure on pasturelands and brush fires, causing pastoralists to lose animals and livestock prices to plummet. The rainy season could also get off to a late start, prolonging the lean period, virtually wiping out market supplies and driving up prices to such an extent as to deny market access to highly food-insecure households.

Figure 1. Current food security conditions FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET   Figure 2. Most likely scenario through July 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET   Figure 3. Worst-case scenario through July 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Current situation

Current estimates put grain production in Senegal for 2006/07 at 988,314 MT, which is 31 percent short of last year’s figure and 14 percent below the five-year average. This production shortfall is attributable to a combination of different factors, such as the failure to supply farmers with adequate farm inputs in time for the 2006/07 growing season, the poor to fair rainfall conditions throughout Senegal and Guinea Conakry affecting stream flow conditions on Senegalese rivers and the heavy concentrations of grain-eating birds in the Senegal River Valley threatening irrigated rice crops. Moreover, harvests of flood-recession and off-season crops will be limited, significantly reducing household recourse to these fresh grain crops that generally help bolster grain availability from the winter growing season.

Despite this production shortfall, the overall food security situation is not yet cause for concern. To be sure, the limited transfers from grain surplus areas to grain deficit areas and urban areas and rising market prices for grain crops could undermine the food access of low-income farm families. Just as they did last year, grain supplies should improve with the end of the groundnut marketing season, which ties up significant financial and human resources (private traders, warehouse operators, carriers, etc.), and the resumption of threshing operations for millet crops.

However, the magnitude of the current production deficit could cause farm families to hoard their crops, further tightening market grain supplies to the detriment of households who depend on markets for grain.

The limited rainfall prompted farmers to cut back the size of areas planted in crops and reduced yields of cash crops, particularly groundnuts, resulting in the replacement of groundnut crops, primarily with millet.

This year’s accelerated seasonal migration is attributable to the poor grazing conditions in pastoral areas in the northern reaches of the country. These poor conditions are forcing larger numbers of pastoralists to move farther south. This rather large influx of migratory animals could trigger serious confrontations between pastoralists and local residents. Moreover, pressure from grazing animals within the Matam/Linguère/Tambacounda triangle – the grazing area of choice for migratory herds from the north – could be heavier than usual during this year’s dry season, particularly given the shortfall in pasture production due to poor rainfall conditions, compounded by the devastating effects of brush fires that have significantly reduced the availability of natural forage.

The food situation in this area could be tougher than usual for local residents, as well as for livestock, prices for which may come down, undermining terms of trade for pastoral households.

Most likely scenario

Production shortfalls for grain and cash crops are causing rural households with no coping strategies to anticipate a cut in income and, eventually, the premature depletion of their on-farm grain reserves. This will make it difficult for them to buy grain during the upcoming lean period, expected to begin in June.

Those that can are expected to stockpile local grain crops, a coping strategy made possible by the existence of other sources of income, such as sales of watermelon, sesame, roselle (bee sap), cassava and truck crops and small animals, and by the establishment of credit cooperatives and other income-generating strategies such as trade and internal migration. Moreover, Senegal’s grain production shortfalls are invariably offset by large supplies of imported rice, which operate as buffer stocks, despite the generally higher price of imported rice compared with that of local grain crops.

This stockpiling of grain crops will tighten supplies in grain deficit areas and on urban markets, driving grain prices even higher for households lacking enough extra income for purchasing grain supplies. Although conditions have not visibly reached catastrophic proportions, this group of households will need to be monitored.

Shortages of pasture in certain areas such as the Matam/Linguère/Tambacounda triangle will force local pastoralists to head further south in search of food for their animals, using aerial pasture, crop residues and animal feed, prices for which are also rising.

This puts potential at-risk areas in:

• The northeastern (Matam region) and eastern (Goudiry districts) reaches of the country;
• Kaffrine department (the rural communities of Maka Yop, Malem Hoddar and Ribo Escale);
• Bambey department (the rural communities of Keur Samba Kane, Réfane and Gawane); and
• Podor department (the diéri or rainfed farming area).

The major problems facing residents of these areas are the production shortfall limiting food availability and tight supplies of locally grown grain crops. These problems are compounded by poor pasture production, particularly in grazing areas in the Matam, Louga and Tambacounda regions and the northern reaches of the Kaolack region.

In general, the outlook for the next few months anticipates increasingly tight market supplies of locally grown grain crops (millet, sorghum and corn) and a corresponding rise in prices, which could usher in the lean period earlier than usual for certain segments of the population. These tight supplies will be offset mainly by imports of rice and corn. Access to water and pasture will become more and more of a problem, affecting animal health conditions and undermining terms of trade for pastoral households as grain prices get higher and livestock prices come down. Localized seed access problems affecting the upcoming growing season are also expected due to a lack of credit and/or alternative sources of income, forcing farmers to sell their seeds in order to purchase food supplies.

Households have a variety of strategies for coping with these problems such as rural-urban migration (to truck farming and fishing areas) in search of income to support family members back home, the selling of small animals for the purchasing of food supplies and seasonal migration southwards in search of pasture.

Worst-case scenario

The worst-case food security scenario in Senegal for the period between February and July 2007 involves heavy pressure on pasture resources and brush fires causing pastoralists to lose animals, with a collapse in livestock prices for pastoral households. The 2007/08 rainy season could also get off to a late start, prolonging the lean period, virtually wiping out market supplies and driving up prices for local grain crops. Such a scenario would deny most food-insecure households market access.