Figure 1. Current food security conditions FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source of information: Ministry of Agriculture.../GoU, WFP/UN agencies, Non-government organizations; Graphics: FEWS NET Uganda

• Food insecurity remains fragile in northern Uganda; however, the gradual increase in households’ access to land for food cultivation favors production prospects for second season harvests due in November. Early harvests in Karamoja, northeastern Uganda, have improved household food stocks and food security there. First season harvests ensure normal food security in most other parts of the country.

• Second season sowing is underway in bimodal areas that cover most areas of Uganda outside Karamoja.

• Harvests have generally increased commodity supplies to markets, but prices remain higher than average although still within reach of most households.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Food security summary

Households in northern Uganda continue to face uncertain civil and food security with many of the estimated 1.49 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) only able to meet less than 50 percent of their food needs from their own sources and purchases from markets. The majority of these households’ food needs are met by food aid distributed by the World Food Programme (WFP). Other non-government and humanitarian organizations provide non-food assistance. At least one third of the 1.49 million IDPs are expected to return home by the end of 2007. The volume of returns depends upon the sustained improvement in civil security; returnees will require social services and access to land and agricultural inputs for the current planting season. The full restitution of viable livelihoods will require additional seasons and sustained interventions.

Food security in Karamoja, northeastern Uganda, has slightly improved following the onset of minor harvests that have increased supplies of cereals and green vegetables. The presence of livestock closer to homesteads, having returned to the region from dry season grazing areas, has increased availability of animal products such as milk and meat for livestock owning households, especially for the most vulnerable, the young and elderly household members. Findings of a recent WFP-led Emergency Food Security Assessment confirmed that food security conditions have slightly improved since July and that food distributions to households affected by last year’s poor season were not needed beyond July. Although the rains were better this year than in 2006, they have still been below average and are likely to result in below-normal harvests in September/October in Karamoja. Consequently, food assistance for these populations will likely be needed again by the end of 2007 or early 2008.

Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR), a fatal virus that affects sheep and goats, continues to spread in Karamoja, with no control measures yet in place. The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries has finally confirmed the presence of the virus and is only now beginning to draw up control plans, seek assistance and start to manage the virus’ spread. Anecdotal reports indicate that the virus has affected more than one million small ruminants to date, putting the income and food security of pastoral and agropastoral households at risk.

The first-season harvest that started in June in bimodal areas (most the country) has increased food availability, enabling normal food access for most households.

Seasonal progress

Figure 2. Estimated rainfall in July and August, compared to average
July 2007	August 2007	FULL-SIZE IMAGE
FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE
FEWS NET/Uganda, Sept 2007; Source: FEWS NET/USGS

The continuation of rainfall in several central, eastern, northern, western and southwestern districts and the Lake Victoria Basin in July, normally a dry month, and into August signifies an early start of the second rainy season in Uganda. Rainfall totals for both months were average to well above average (figure 2), enabling farmers with access to arable land to start cultivation of cereals and pulses (millet, sorghum, maize, beans, pigeon peas and others). By early August, moderate rainfall supported increased farming activities in most of the country where farmers were busy sowing cereals (maize, millet and sorghum) and pulses (mainly beans) – except in Karamoja, which has a single season – in a bid to make up for a relatively poor first season. Heavy rains were reported in eastern Uganda districts in August, displacing households and damaging crops and property. The exact extent of the impact will be known after an assessment by humanitarian organizations. Commercial seed sales agents and district agricultural extension personnel report a high volume of sales of agricultural inputs, including improved seed. The retail price for improved maize and bean seed is normal, about UShs 1,200/= and 1,400/= per kg, respectively.

A majority of farmers had harvested their first season cereal crops by end of August, mainly maize and millet, although early-planted maize has been harvested and eaten green since June. Farmers in key maize growing areas of eastern, central and western Uganda (Iganga, Kamuli, Kasese, Luwero, Masindi and Mayuge) expect a below normal to normal harvests this season, due to the delayed onset of the season and sporadic rains thereafter. A further concern is the delay in first season planting and the early start of second season rains. The high moisture levels have made it difficult for farmers to harvest, dry and store crops, reducing their overall quality. In the past, high moisture conditions have caused post-harvest losses of up to 40 percent in some locations. Poor quality limits households’ ability to sell their crops and reduces their potential income. Currently, maize grain being sold from farmers to wholesalers and on markets has high moisture content. However, no significant post-harvest losses have been observed yet, and national food security projections are good.

Markets, trade and food access

Supplies of crops to major district markets are normal, as newly harvested dry pulses, cereals and root crops from the first season reach the market. Districts in central, eastern and western Uganda maintain flows of dry beans and green maize to major consumption markets, such as Kampala. However, the market supply of dry pulses (beans, peas) peaked in July and is now gradually declining as stocks are drawn down. Maize supplies have improved, but high moisture levels in the newly harvested maize raise the risk of post-harvest losses and the general deterioration in quality of maize stored over the next few months.

Figure 3. Comparative wholesale sorghum prices for Lira and Soroti: 2007 vs 2002-06 average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Market Information Service; Graphics: FEWS NET/Uganda, Sept. 2007

Despite the increasing food supply in major Ugandan markets, anecdotal data indicates that no significant drops in prices have been observed for most crops. Prices remain higher than average but still within reach of most households, according to informal surveys of traders who report not so significant falls in purchases.

In sample markets in the east (Lira and Soroti) sorghum prices are currently 25 percent and 5 percent above the 5-year average, respectively (see figure 3). In Lira, between June and July, prices rose by 24 percent, indicating increased demand even as the new first season crop comes into the market. As this is the first productive season for resettled households in the area, much of their harvest is kept for home consumption; there is only a limited marketable surplus, so local market prices tend to remain at high levels.

Normal supplies to Soroti markets ensured a price drop of 4 percent as new harvest becomes available for sale. Soroti is likely to be main supply to Karamoja to ease the food insecurity in the region.