Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MFEWS

The rainy season has started in the central plateau and southern and western regions of the country, and above-normal rainfall is forecast for the May to November rainy season due to the La Niña phenomenon. The beginning of the rains initiates the main agricultural activities, but also increases the risk of negative food security impacts as a result of excessive rainfall. Barbara, this year’s first tropical storm, already affected some municipalities in the southwest, especially the municipality of Ocos in San Marcos Department; however, it is not expected to impact the food and nutrition security of the affected population.

The price of maize remains high. In June, the population in both the eastern and western zones of the country will deplete their cereal reserves from the previous harvest, and will depend on the market to purchase their food until the next harvest in September in the west and in November in the east. The above-average maize prices will limit access more than normal until this time. The areas where households are currently facing high food insecurity (Figure 1) are regions that already suffer high levels of chronic food and nutrition insecurity, and where conditions are likely to deteriorate in the coming months as a result of the depletion of staple cereal reserves in June.

Seasonal calendar

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Food and nutrition security

The poorest households in Guatemala, concentrated in livelihood zones 5 and 6 in the west and 7 and 8 in the east, are facing the most difficult season of the year, as they depend completely on purchased food for consumption, bought with the incomes derived from the sale of their labor. Currently, the demand for unskilled labor is low, and poor households have few alternative income sources. Because of the low access to sources of income and dependency on the market, the prices of staple cereals are important in determining household food access. Every year at this time, the demand for staple cereals increases as reserves are depleted at the household level, causing prices to increase (Figure2). The price of maize continues to be above normal due to the high prices in the international market. The price of rice is also high compared to previous years, and the price of beans is increasing normally for this time of the year.

Figure 2. Nominal staple cereal consumer prices, June 15, 2007, in La Terminal market, Guatemala City   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Note: prices are in quetzals per pound. Promedio indicates average prices Exchange rate: US$ 1 = Q 7.65, June15, 2007 Source: prepared by MFEWS with data from MAGA, UOR and UPIE/Area of Information

The rainy season started in May and June in all regions of Guatemala, and an active rainy season is forecast (see the weather section below). This forecast implies an increased risk of negative impacts on food and nutrition security. The southwestern part of the country has already been impacted by Barbara, the first tropical storm of the year, which damaged houses and banana plantations. It is not expected to impact food security, however, as the plantation owners are sufficiently well off to face the production losses without their food and nutrition security being affected.

Maize and bean crops in the southwest have not been damaged despite the rains produced by Barbara. In the higher and middle-elevated areas of the affected basins, maize crops are at the growing stage and can tolerate high levels of humidity. In the lower areas, though, maize crops have recently been planted, and the excessive rainfall could reduce germination and even require replanting. In this case, farmers would have to invest in inputs again, reducing the available funds for their food and other basic needs. Moreover, delayed planting increases the possibility of crop diseases and infestations, which will increase expenditures on pesticides and reduce harvest yields. Beans are more vulnerable to excessive humidity than maize, and although there have not been any losses yet, heavy precipitation in the near future similar to the recent rains could cause bean crop losses due to decay and fungus. This would reduce production in the next harvest in September, having a direct impact on the quantity and quality of food consumed by producer households.

Besides the impact that heavy rains could have on agricultural production, an active rainy season increases the risk of other events that represent hazards to food and nutrition security (see Figure 3 below), such as:

• Floods and landslides affect food security by making access to and from the affected communities difficult. This will be important during the coming months, when dependency on purchased food increases and it is vital for communities to have good access to roads between them and the market places.

• The rainy season increases the prevalence of diarrheic diseases, respiratory infections, malaria and dengue.

Figure 3. Areas with high vulnerability to hazards during the 2007 rainy season, per livelihood zone FULL-SIZE IMAGE

FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Sources: CONRED and MFEWS, prepared by MFEWS

The beginning of the rainy season also represents the start of the best time of year for small-scale fishermen, both in the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Small-scale fishing activities are concentrated in livelihood zone 13 and the coastal area of zone 4 (Figure 3). Small-scale fishermen are one of the country’s population groups that face the highest levels of poverty and food and nutrition insecurity, as they depend almost exclusively on fishing for their own consumption and especially for sale. Although fishing activities are at their highest at this time, the sea is also much more violent during this season, endangering fishermen that use fragile wooden dugout canoes. The coastal communities in zone 13 and zone 4 are also the most vulnerable to tidal waves and increase sea levels, and households can therefore lose productive assets and be deterred from going fishing during an active rainy season such as the one forecast for this year.

Weather outlook

Rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season in May along the southern coast was above average, and in some areas was double the historic norm. According to INSIVUMEH, the above-average rainfall will continue in the entire central plateau and the west during the 2007 rainy season (May to November), as La Niña-related climatic conditions are present.

The likely onset of the La Niña phenomenon will also affect the hurricane season, which has officially started in both the Pacific (May 15) and the Atlantic (June 1). The Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is projecting a 75 percent probability that the Atlantic hurricane season will be will be more active than normal this year. As many as 13 to 17 named storms, out of which 3 to 5 could develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher, are forecast. In an average season, 11 named storms and two major hurricanes occur. On the other hand, the forecast for the Pacific is a 70 percent chance of a less than normally active season, with between 12 to 16 tropical storms (the average is 15 to 16) and 6 to 9 hurricanes, of which between 2 and 4 will be Category 3 or higher (average is 4 to 5). The hurricanes that have a greater impact on Guatemala come from the Atlantic, and the active hurricane season forecast in that area implies an increased risk to food security during the rainy season.